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W7EES > SWPC 20.07.19 01:13z 50 Lines 2005 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 10257_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<LU9DCE<N7HPX<KC9VYU<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 190720/0055Z 10257@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul, 22 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 403 km/s at 19/0343Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
18/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
18/2259Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1824 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (20 Jul, 22
Jul) and quiet levels on day two (21 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jul 067
Predicted 20 Jul-22 Jul 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 19 Jul 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 006/008-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 25/15/25
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