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W7EES > SWPC 16.07.19 01:21z 49 Lines 2017 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 10173_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: HB9ON<IK7NXU<IK6IHL<IZ3LSV<IR2UBX<DB0RES<PI8CDR<VE2PKT<VK4TUB<LU4ECL<
JE7YGF<N9PMO<N9LCF<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 190716/0057Z 10173@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (16 Jul, 17 Jul, 18 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 512 km/s at 15/0931Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 15/0818Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
15/0853Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3879 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (16 Jul, 17 Jul)
and quiet levels on day three (18 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jul 067
Predicted 16 Jul-18 Jul 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 15 Jul 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul 008/008-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/10
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 25/30/15
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