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W7EES > SWPC 22.01.21 03:28z 46 Lines 1669 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 26053_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR1UAW<IK1NHL<CX2SA<N9PMO<KC9UHI<W9GM<KK4DIV<K5DAT<
W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 210121/2231Z 26053@W7EES.#NWOR.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.21
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 21 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Jan,
23 Jan, 24 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 345 km/s at 20/2258Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
20/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
21/0948Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 207 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24
Jan).
III. Event probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jan 078
Predicted 22 Jan-24 Jan 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 21 Jan 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan 005/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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