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W7EES > SWPC 20.01.20 02:04z 46 Lines 1911 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 13709_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<N9LCF<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 200120/0038Z 13709@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.19
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (20 Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 366 km/s at 19/0717Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 179 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (20 Jan, 21 Jan) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jan 072
Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 19 Jan 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 008/012-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/20
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/40/25
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