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W7EES > SWPC 16.01.20 03:13z 50 Lines 1967 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 13605_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<LU9DCE<N7HPX<KF5JRV<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 200116/0147Z 13605@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.19
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 15 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan, 18 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 353 km/s at 15/0222Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
15/1958Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
15/0730Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 581 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan, 18
Jan).
III. Event probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jan 071
Predicted 16 Jan-18 Jan 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 15 Jan 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 005/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/20
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