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W7EES > SWPC 17.09.19 01:14z 59 Lines 2345 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 11314_W7EES
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Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
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Sent: 190916/2310Z 11314@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (17 Sep, 18 Sep, 19 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 485 km/s at 16/0123Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 15/2108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
16/0124Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1745 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (17 Sep, 18 Sep)
and quiet levels on day three (19 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Sep 069
Predicted 17 Sep-19 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 16 Sep 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep 007/008-009/010-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/15
Major-severe storm 20/25/10
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