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W7EES  > SWPC     16.09.19 00:34z 59 Lines 2329 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 11285_W7EES
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
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Sent: 190916/0007Z 11285@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18

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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (16 Sep, 17 Sep, 18 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 491 km/s at 15/0911Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 15/1141Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
15/0632Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5476 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (16 Sep,
17 Sep, 18 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Sep 068
Predicted   16 Sep-18 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        15 Sep 067

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep  006/006-007/008-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/20/25

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 information in your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is
 not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.




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