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W7EES  > SWPC     12.07.18 00:03l 48 Lines 1674 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4067_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JM1YTR<JE7YGF<N9PMO<N9LCF<KC8KPM<N9LYA<
      W7EES
Sent: 180710/2300Z 4067@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (11 Jul, 12 Jul, 13 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 392 km/s at 10/0636Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at
10/1207Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
10/1200Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 356 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Jul) and quiet levels
on days two and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jul 072
Predicted   11 Jul-13 Jul 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        10 Jul 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul  005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    25/15/10




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