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W7EES  > SWPC     09.07.18 03:03l 48 Lines 1740 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3976_W7EES
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Sent: 180707/2337Z 3976@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08
Jul, 09 Jul, 10 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 524 km/s at 07/0533Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
06/2132Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
07/0057Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 305 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (08 Jul), quiet to active levels on day
two (09 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (10 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jul 072
Predicted   08 Jul-10 Jul 072/072/074
90 Day Mean        07 Jul 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul  006/005-010/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/15
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    15/35/20

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