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LU9DCE > ALERT 26.05.19 07:33z 343 Lines 18070 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 26 05
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Sent: 190526/0701Z 25394@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
28.125 USB @ 300 BAUD --- HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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WW 248 SEVERE TSTM IL IN 260540Z - 261100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 248 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sun
May 26 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Illinois
Western Indiana
* Effective this Sunday morning from 1240 AM until 600 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70
mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter
possible
SUMMARY...A well-organized band of storms will continue to pose
an isolated damaging wind risk along with hail overnight into
western Indiana.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west northwest
of Champaign IL to 30 miles south of Lafayette IN. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 247...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion
vector 27030.
...Guyer
WW 247 SEVERE TSTM KS MO OK 260150Z - 260800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 247 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 850 PM CDT Sat
May 25 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Kansas Western
Missouri Northeast Oklahoma
* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 850 PM
until 300 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph
possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Large arcing line of thunderstorms will push east from
central portions of Kansas and Oklahoma into western Missouri.
Greatest threat is damaging wind gusts during the late evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles east of Tulsa
OK to 30 miles north of Topeka KS. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 240...WW 241...WW 242...WW
244...WW 245...WW 246...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035.
...Grams
WW 246 SEVERE TSTM IA IL MO 260015Z - 260500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 246 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 715 PM CDT Sat
May 25 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Iowa
West-central and northwest Illinois Northeast Missouri
* Effective this Saturday night from 715 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated
very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated
damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Splitting discrete cells will pose a threat for primarily
large hail this evening as they develop east from north-central
Missouri.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles west southwest
of Burlington IA to 60 miles east southeast of Burlington IA. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 238...WW 240...WW 241...WW
242...WW 243...WW 244...WW 245...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28030.
...Grams
WW 0248 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 248
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S DEC TO
15 W CMI TO 45 NW DNV.
..BROYLES..05/26/19
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LOT...IND...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 248
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC019-029-041-045-075-139-183-260740-
IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAMPAIGN COLES DOUGLAS EDGAR
IROQUOIS MOULTRIE VERMILION
INC007-045-107-121-157-165-171-260740-
IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON FOUNTAIN MONTGOMERY PARKE
TIPPECANOE VERMILLION WARREN
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0247 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 247
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W MKO TO
20 E TUL TO 25 ENE CNU TO 30 WSW SZL.
..BROYLES..05/26/19
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF...TSA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 247
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC011-021-037-260740-
KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD
MOC011-097-119-145-217-260740-
MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON JASPER MCDONALD NEWTON
VERNON
OKC001-021-041-091-097-101-115-135-145-260740-
OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE DELAWARE MCINTOSH
MAYES MUSKOGEE OTTAWA SEQUOYAH
WAGONER
WW 0245 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 245
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE FSI TO
25 NNW CHK TO 20 ENE CQB.
..SQUITIERI..05/26/19
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 245
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC027-051-081-087-109-119-125-260640-
OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLEVELAND GRADY LINCOLN MCCLAIN
OKLAHOMA PAYNE POTTAWATOMIE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
MD 0806 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 247... FOR FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...FAR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0806 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019
Areas affected...Far Eastern Oklahoma...Northwest
Arkansas...Southwest Missouri...Far Southeast Kansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 247...
Valid 260639Z - 260845Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 247
continues.
SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue through late
tonight from far eastern Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas and
southwest Missouri. Wind damage and a tornado threat will be
possible along the leading edge of a squall-line. Weather watch
issuance may become necessary to the east of WW 247.
DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a linear MCS over
northeastern Oklahoma in the southeast portion of WW 247. The linear
MCS is associated with a rear inflow jet which is supporting a
wind damage threat along the leading edge of the line. In addition,
the Tulsa WSR-88D VWP shows a looped hodograph with a 0-3 km storm
relative helicity of 325 m2/s2. For this reason, a tornado threat
could also continue with the line as it moves eastward into northern
Arkansas. Although the severe threat may become more isolated with
time, weather watch issuance can not be ruled out at this time.
..Broyles/Guyer.. 05/26/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 36829504 35839506 35189499 34899446 34889323 35249240
35709204 36799190 37359263 37329421 36829504
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254
AM CDT Sun May 26 2019
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, including a few supercells with
a risk for tornadoes, are expected today across much of the High
Plains, into the central Plains. Additional severe thunderstorms
are possible across the lower Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic
Coast region, accompanied mainly by a risk for severe wind and hail.
...Synopsis... A large-scale pattern including persistent,
prominent subtropical ridging centered near the eastern Gulf coast,
and encompassing much of the Southeast, and large-scale troughing
within the mid-latitude westerlies across much of the West,
will persist through this period. Within the Western troughing,
the most prominent perturbation, including a deep mid-level low,
is forecast to dig inland of the California coast, to the south
of San Francisco Bay, through the lower Colorado by 12Z Monday.
As it does, models indicate that a downstream impulse will pivot
northeast of Baja, and accelerate across the southern Rockies through
larger-scale ridging across the central High Plains. This likely
will be accompanied by deepening surface troughing across much of
the High Plains, and perhaps modest surface cyclogenesis from eastern
Colorado into Nebraska late this afternoon through tonight, providing
a focus for considerable strong to severe thunderstorm development.
Farther east, several convectively generated or enhanced
perturbations will continue to migrate around the northern periphery
of the subtropical ridging, and are expected to aid convective
development along and south of an initial surface front advancing
southward into/through the Mid Atlantic coast region and Ohio Valley.
...Plains... The short wave emerging from Baja is forecast to be
substantive enough to suppress larger-scale mid-level ridging and
contribute to a transition to cyclonic flow across and east of the
southern Rockies late this afternoon and evening. It appears that
this will be accompanied by a strengthening of southwesterly flow to
40-60 kt (in the 700-500 mb layer) across the central High Plains,
and strengthening of initially modest southerly 850 mb flow to 30-50+
kt by late this evening, from the Texas South Plains through the
central Plains by late this evening.
Moisture return to the deepening surface trough across the
central High Plains is already underway beneath north/northeastward
advecting warm elevated mixed-layer air. Models indicate that this
will contribute to moderate to large CAPE across much of the High
Plains, and into the warm sector of the developing cyclone across
the central Plains.
Various model output does indicate that lower/mid tropospheric
warm advection could contribute to thunderstorm development by
early afternoon across parts of western Kansas. This probably
will be rooted above the boundary layer, before it has a chance to
substantively destabilize, and it remains at least somewhat unclear
what impact this will have on subsequent thunderstorm development as
it spreads northeastward ahead of the approaching short wave impulse.
There appears likely to be at least a narrow corridor of moderate
to strong boundary layer destabilization across the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandles into eastern Colorado by mid to late afternoon, which
should be sufficient to support propagation of thunderstorm
activity off the Rockies into the High Plains. In the presence
of strengthening shear, the environment is expected to become
conducive to supercells with potential for large to very large hail.
Although low-level hodographs may be initially weak to modest,
a few tornadoes also appear possible, particularly across the
Colorado/Kansas border area into the Panhandle region.
Tornadic potential eastward across the central Plains this evening,
as the low-level jet strengthens, remains a bit more unclear.
It appears that large-scale forcing for ascent may support an upscale
growing convective system with primarily a risk for strong wind
gusts along the leading edge of a strengthening surface cold pool,
across parts of western Kansas into south central Nebraska.
...Lower Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic Coast region... Models
indicate that seasonably high boundary layer moisture content
ahead of the southward advancing front will become characterized
by moderate CAPE by this afternoon. This will support potential
for organizing clusters of thunderstorm activity, aided by forcing
and shear associated with the perturbations progressing around the
northern periphery of the subtropical ridge. Flow including 30-40+
kt in the 700-500 mb layer may be sufficient to support occasional
isolated supercells, but severe hail and wind appear the primary
hazards in the presence of generally weak low-level hodographs.
..Kerr/Squitieri.. 05/26/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100
AM CDT Sun May 26 2019
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from Nebraska
eastward to the Midwest. Isolated severe storms are possible from
northern Kansas southward through west Texas.
...Synopsis... A mid-level low centered near the Lower Colorado
River Valley at the beginning of D2/Monday will migrate eastward
across the central Rockies through the forecast period, with a
belt of enhanced flow rounding the base of this trough and entering
the High Plains late. Another shortwave trough will migrate from
Iowa early in the period to Michigan by evening. At the surface,
a low will organize in eastern Colorado throughout the period,
while a warm front extends across central Nebraska northeastward
to southern Wisconsin. A buoyant airmass will reside south of this
boundary throughout the forecast period.
...Eastern Nebraska eastward through the Midwest... Convection
should be ongoing across NE/IA portions of the discussion area in
response to a weak shortwave trough moving eastward through the
region amidst a buoyant airmass characterized by low 60s F dewpoints
south of a warm front. Both convective evolution and eventual
position of the warm front remain unclear, although the presence of
the eastward-moving wave, surface heating/moderate buoyancy along
and south of the warm front, and weak inhibition supports the notion
of scattered convection in northern Illinois and vicinity during the
afternoon, shifting east/southeast into Indiana and Ohio overnight.
Southwesterly low-level flow veering and strengthening to westerly
with height will support organized convection with updraft rotation
and a threat for hail, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.
...Southeastern Wyoming into western Nebraska... Easterly/upslope
flow will exist just northeast of the organizing surface low, with
low 50s F dewpoints and cool mid-level temperatures supporting
around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. The flow will veer and strengthen to
southerly aloft, supporting convection with updraft rotation.
Hail, damaging wind, and isolated tornadoes will be possible with
this activity. These storms will migrate eastward along the warm
front reach central Nebraska late in the period, with a continued
threat for severe hail and wind given continued cooling aloft.
...Southern Nebraska southward through west Texas... Though
convergence along the dryline will be appreciable, models only
depict isolated convection from evening onward - probably owing to
subsidence aloft in the wake of the morning shortwave and in advance
of the approaching cutoff low. Forcing/cooling aloft will arrive
late in the period, which generally suggests that any convection
that can materialize will be slightly elevated atop a cooling
boundary layer. Large hail will be the most likely threat with this
activity, though if a storm can develop along the dryline earlier
than currently anticipated, all modes of severe will be possible.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight
..Cook.. 05/26/2019
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Basic is a high level languish. APL is a high level anguish.
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