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LU9DCE > ALERT 25.05.19 07:13z 220 Lines 13028 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25315_LU9DCE
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 25 05
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 190525/0701Z 25315@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
28.125 USB @ 300 BAUD --- HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253
AM CDT Sat May 25 2019
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
ADJACENT SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING NEAR THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear likely today across
the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle region, northward into Kansas,
and also south of the lower Great Lakes region into the Allegheny
Plateau and portions of the upper Ohio Valley.
...Synopsis... Mid/upper subtropical ridging centered near the
Gulf coast appears likely to remain prominent through this period.
However, models do indicate flattening of a ridge axis extending
to its north, as a significant short wave impulse within the
mid-latitude westerlies turns northeastward then eastward across
eastern Ontario and the upper Great Lakes region into Quebec and
portions of the Northeast. An associated surface cyclone may
continue to deepen as it migrates across James Bay into northern
Quebec, with a trailing surface cold front advancing southeastward
across the Great Lakes while stalling over the central Plains.
Upstream, large-scale troughing will persist within the mid-latitude
westerlies across much of the West. Within this regime, models
indicate that a vigorous short wave trough and embedded deep
mid-level low will continue to dig along the southern Oregon through
northern California coast. As this occurs, a downstream trough axis
is forecast to take on a negative tilt orientation while pivoting
across Baja. While downstream ridging may build to the lee of the
Rockies through the High Plains, models continue to indicate that a
short wave perturbation emanating from the Western troughing will
progress through the ridging across the southern High Plains late
this afternoon into tonight.
Moderate to strong instability along the northwestern through
northern periphery of the subtropical ridging appears likely to
again provide support for considerable strong to severe thunderstorm
development today. The stalled frontal zone across the central
Plains into portions of the mid/lower Missouri Valley is expected
to provide the general northern limit of any appreciable severe
weather potential. A convectively generated or reinforced boundary
preceding it may provide the focus, or northwestern limit, of any
appreciable severe weather potential across the middle Mississippi
Valley into the lower Great Lakes region.
...Southern/central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley...
Considerable spread exists among the various model output concerning
possible convective evolution for this period. However, there
appears general consensus that the evolving mid/upper pattern
will support an area of strengthening large-scale forcing for
ascent across the Texas Panhandle region into portions of western
Oklahoma by late this afternoon. This likely will be associated
with strengthening lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, beneath
a focused area of increasingly divergent high level flow. In the
presence of moderate to strong instability, which probably will
include a destabilizing boundary layer characterized by CAPE in
excess of 2000 J/kg, this is expected to support considerable
thunderstorm development, perhaps as soon as early afternoon.
In the presence of continuing strong deep layer shear, convection
probably will include supercells with a risk for severe hail.
Subsequent development is more unclear, but there appears potential
for convection to grow upscale into one or two larger clusters,
spreading northeastward and eastward into western Oklahoma and
southern Kansas, accompanied by a risk for strong surface gusts.
Potential for tornadoes also remains unclear, but it would seem at
least a bit more favorable if storms remain more discrete in nature.
As a southerly low-level jet remains focused across the Texas South
Plains, and strengthens late this afternoon and evening, it is also
possible that an outflow boundary left by initial convection may
remain a focus for continuing discrete storm development, including
a risk for supercells with tornadoes.
If convection farther south does not become an inhibiting factor,
a cold front/dryline intersection across northwest Kansas may
also provide a focus for the initiation of at least isolated late
afternoon storms, including supercells.
...Lower Great Lakes/Allegheny Plateau/upper Ohio Valley region...
Focus for organized severe weather potential today remains somewhat
unclear, but models suggest that this may be most probable in
association with a convectively generated or enhanced perturbation
migrating around the flatten mid/upper ridge. It appears that this
feature could help focus thunderstorm development along the lake
breeze to the south/east of Lakes Erie, and perhaps Ontario, by late
afternoon. In the presence of 30-50+ kt lower/mid tropospheric flow
and moderate CAPE, one or two upscale growing convective clusters
appear possible, accompanied initially by a risk for severe hail,
then, primarily, a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts.
..Kerr/Squitieri.. 05/25/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254
AM CDT Sat May 25 2019
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
INDIANA EASTWARD TO WESTERN MARYLAND...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad
area of the Plains, with signficant severe weather possible over
western Kansas and vicinity. Severe storms are possible along the
Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.
...Synopsis... A vigorous disturbance will amplify southeastward
toward southern California today, reinforcing the western
trough/eastern ridge pattern across the CONUS. Another
shortwave trough located over the southern Rockies will eject
north-northeastward over the Plains toward Nebraska late in the
forecast period. Meanwhile at the surface, broad southerly flow
west of an anticyclone centered over the Gulf Stream will maintain
60s to low 70s F dewpoints over much of the Plains and Midwest, with
slightly lower boundary layer moisture farther northwest across the
northern High Plains and Dakotas. A surface trough/dryline will
sharpen from eastern Wyoming southward through eastern Colorado
and along the New Mexico/Texas border region, while cyclogenesis
along this trough will begin in earnest late in the forecast period
across northeastern Colorado/western Nebraska and vicinity.
...Nebraska southward through west Texas... The aforementioned
southern Rockies shortwave trough will begin to influence the western
extent of the warm/moist sector in west Texas as early as midday,
with isolated convection probably rooted relatively high early on.
With time, convection will gradually increase/deepen along the
dryline while migrating north-northeastward into gradually better
low-level moisture, but slightly stronger mid-level capping.
This lends some uncertainty with regard to the eastern extent
of convective development in Kansas and Oklahoma, while also
suggesting potential for isolated, cellular convection to be the
dominant convective mode (further suggested by the CAMs/HREF).
Steep mid-level lapse rates and surface warming will result in strong
instability areawide, with strengthening and veering of flow with
height supporting updraft rotation. Significant severe weather will
likely accompany any cells that develop in this environment, with
significant tornado potential maximized around 23-03Z as low-level
flow increases to around 40 knots and low-level winds back due to
surface cyclogenesis. With time, this activity will continue to
increase in coverage while migrating northeastward into Nebraska and
northeastern Kansas in tandem with increasing ascent associated with
the approaching shortwave trough overnight. A continued threat for
hail and damaging wind gusts will exist after dark, potentially as
far east as Iowa by the end of the forecast period.
...Northern High Plains... Point forecast soundings indicate
relatively steep mid-level lapse rates atop 50s to low 60s F
surface dewpoints, resulting in enough instability to sustain
surface-based convection. Southeasterly low level flow will
contain an upslope component against higher terrain, further
supporting appreciable convective coverage. This flow should
remain relatively weak compared to areas farther south, however,
although veering and strengthening flow with height will support a
mix of multicellular and supercellular modes during peak heating,
with hail, damaging wind gusts, and isolated tornadoes possible.
These storms should become elevated after dark with the loss of
boundary layer heating, although steep mid-level lapse rates will
continue to support an isolated hail risk even after dark.
...Indiana eastward to the Mid-Atlantic... Models suggest that
a band of convection will develop during the afternoon along
a weak cold front that will sag slowly south through the area.
Unidirectional wind profiles and strong deep shear suggest organized
convection with a threat for damaging wind and isolated hail, with
consensus among models regarding convective coverage supporting
an increase in severe probabilities. These storms will migrate
southeastward through the evening and weaken after dark.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 10% SIG - Enhanced Wind:
30% - Enhanced Hail: 30% SIG - Enhanced
..Cook.. 05/25/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CDT Sat May 25 2019
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
...Synopsis... A stationary mid-level shortwave trough will amplify
across the southwest CONUS, with stronger flow aloft overspreading
the Four Corners region into the High Plains during the day. At the
surface, lee troughing will prevail across the central High Plains,
with a dryline propagating eastward by mid-afternoon. Downslope
flow associated with boundary layer mixing, and isallobaric flow
associated with lee-troughing, will both contribute to very dry,
windy surface conditions supportive of wildfire spread potential.
Across the southeast U.S, a large scale upper-level ridge will remain
in place, that combined with surface high pressure, will promote
large scale subsidence, with negligible precipitation accumulations,
and warm/dry surface conditions.
...New Mexico... By mid-afternoon, widespread 15-20 mph sustained
southwesterly surface winds will be in place across much of New
Mexico, coincident with 10-15% RH, where an elevated delineation
has been made. A critical delineation has also been maintained in
central New Mexico, where confidence remains high that surface winds
will exceed 20 mph for several hours during the afternoon, atop fuels
that will be at least modestly supportive of fire spread. Otherwise,
more quiescent fire conditions may be expected during the evening
hours as boundary layer stabilization will result in calmer winds
and increasing RH.
...Southern Georgia into far northern Florida, far southwest
South Carolina and far southeast Alabama... Hot, dry conditions
will prevail across the area during the afternoon, where rainfall
accumulations have been relatively absent for several days. Fuels
are beginning to become supportive of fire spread, and with little
precipitation accumulations expected in the near future, this trend
is expected to continue. The aforementioned upper-level ridge and
surface high will temper the threat for surface winds exceeding 15
mph, which would otherwise support very favorable conditions for
wildfire spread. Nonetheless, the warm, dry conditions, combined
with 10-15 mph surface flow originating from weak sea-breezes,
may promote at least locally elevated conditions to the region.
..Squitieri.. 05/25/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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I'm going to Boston to see my doctor. He's a very sick man.
-- Fred Allen
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