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LU9DCE > ALERT    24.05.19 07:13z 430 Lines 21644 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25258_LU9DCE
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 24 05
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 190524/0700Z 25258@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18

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+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 WW 228 TORNADO KS NE 240635Z - 241300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 228
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Northeast Kansas
Southeast Nebraska
* Effective this Friday morning from 135 AM until 800 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...  A couple tornadoes possible Scattered
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated very large hail
events to 2 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Bands of northeastward-moving storms will likely continue
to intensify overnight, particularly in vicinity of weak low pressure
and a northward-shifting warm front. Isolated damaging winds is the
most probable concern, but a couple of tornadoes could also occur
given a moist environment and very strong low-level shear.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 45 miles north northeast of Beatrice NE
to 20 miles south of Medicine Lodge KS. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 226...WW 227...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 23035.
...Guyer
 WW 227 TORNADO KS OK 240255Z - 240700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 227
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 955 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Kansas Northwest Oklahoma
* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 955 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...  A couple tornadoes possible Isolated
very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...A pair of supercells may persist for the next couple of
hours, necessitating an extension of the previous tornado watch.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute
miles east and west of a line from 65 miles southwest of Alva OK
to 55 miles north northwest of Medicine Lodge KS. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 220...WW 221...WW 222...WW
223...WW 224...WW 225...WW 226...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 22030.
...Grams
 WW 226 SEVERE TSTM TX 240240Z - 240800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 226 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 940 PM CDT Thu
May 23 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Texas
* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 940 PM
until 300 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...  Scattered large hail and isolated
very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...A cluster of strong to severe storms should persist
into the early overnight with primary hazards being large hail and
damaging winds.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west of Lubbock
TX to 80 miles east of Plainview TX. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 220...WW 221...WW 222...WW
223...WW 224...WW 225...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24030.
...Grams
 WW 0228 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0228 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
 WW 0227 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 227
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..05/24/19
ATTN...WFO...DDC...OUN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 227
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-025-033-097-151-185-240640-
KS .    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER               CLARK               COMANCHE KIOWA
PRATT               STAFFORD
OKC045-059-151-153-240640-
OK .    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ELLIS                HARPER              WOODS WOODWARD
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
 WW 0226 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 226
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S CVS TO
5 WSW PVW TO 50 ESE AMA.
..BROYLES..05/24/19
ATTN...WFO...LUB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 226
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC045-075-079-101-107-125-153-189-191-219-303-305-345-445-501-
240640-
TX .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRISCOE              CHILDRESS           COCHRAN COTTLE
CROSBY              DICKENS FLOYD                HALE
HALL HOCKLEY              LUBBOCK             LYNN MOTLEY
TERRY               YOAKUM
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
 WW 0225 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 225
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW ILG TO
40 SE LBE.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 24/04Z.
..KERR..05/24/19
ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 225
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
PAC001-009-013-021-041-043-055-057-061-067-071-075-087-099-109-
111-133-240400-
PA .    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS                BEDFORD             BLAIR CAMBRIA
CUMBERLAND          DAUPHIN FRANKLIN             FULTON
HUNTINGDON JUNIATA              LANCASTER           LEBANON MIFFLIN
PERRY               SNYDER SOMERSET             YORK
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
 WW 0224 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 224
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CNK TO
25 NW BIE TO 15 NW LNK TO 20 NNW SDA.
A NEW SEVERE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE ISSUED TO REPLACE WW 224 PRIOR
TO 24/05Z.
REFERENCE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 765 FOR MORE DETAIL.
..KERR..05/24/19
ATTN...WFO...TOP...OAX...GID...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 224
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC117-131-157-201-240500-
KS .    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MARSHALL             NEMAHA              REPUBLIC WASHINGTON
NEC025-067-095-097-109-127-131-133-147-151-159-240500-
NE .    NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS                 GAGE                JEFFERSON JOHNSON
LANCASTER           NEMAHA OTOE                 PAWNEE
RICHARDSON SALINE               SEWARD
 WW 0223 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 223
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
A NEW SEVERE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE ISSUED TO REPLACE WW 223 PRIOR
TO 24/05Z.
..KERR..05/24/19
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 223
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC015-017-027-029-041-053-061-073-079-095-111-113-115-127-143-
149-155-159-161-169-173-197-240500-
KS .    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTLER               CHASE               CLAY CLOUD
DICKINSON           ELLSWORTH GEARY                GREENWOOD
HARVEY KINGMAN              LYON                MCPHERSON MARION
MORRIS              OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE         RENO
RICE RILEY                SALINE              SEDGWICK WABAUNSEE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
 WW 0222 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 222
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE LEX TO
50 NE LEX TO 30 WSW HTS.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WATCH MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 04Z,
IF NOT CANCELLED EARLIER.
..KERR..05/24/19
ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...RLX...ILN...PBZ...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 222
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC011-017-049-063-069-165-173-175-181-205-240400-
KY .    KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BATH                 BOURBON             CLARK ELLIOTT
FLEMING             MENIFEE MONTGOMERY           MORGAN
NICHOLAS ROWAN
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
 WW 0221 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 221
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
WW 221 PROBABLY WILL BE REPLACED WITH ONE OR TWO WATCHES PRIOR
TO 03Z.
..KERR..05/24/19
ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...OUN...LUB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 221
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-025-033-097-151-185-240300-
KS .    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER               CLARK               COMANCHE KIOWA
PRATT               STAFFORD
OKC007-045-059-240300-
OK .    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER               ELLIS               HARPER
TXC011-017-045-065-069-079-087-107-129-153-179-189-191-211-219-
233-279-295-303-305-345-357-381-393-437-445-483-501-240300-
TX .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
 WW 0220 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 220
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW DDC TO
25 SW RSL TO 20 WNW RSL TO 25 SE HLC TO 50 WSW HLC.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 220 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 24/03Z.
..KERR..05/24/19
ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD...GID...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 220
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC009-039-047-057-063-065-069-083-089-105-109-123-137-141-145-
147-153-163-167-179-183-193-203-240300-
KS .    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON               DECATUR             EDWARDS FORD
GOVE                GRAHAM GRAY                 HODGEMAN
JEWELL LINCOLN              LOGAN               MITCHELL NORTON
OSBORNE             PAWNEE PHILLIPS             RAWLINS
ROOKS RUSSELL              SHERIDAN            SMITH THOMAS
WICHITA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233
AM CDT Fri May 24 2019
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO PORTIONS
OF WESTERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...  Strong to severe storms will be possible today from
western portions of Texas to southern portions of the Upper Great
Lakes region.
...Synopsis...  A large-scale upper trough is forecast to remain
in place over the western U.S. today, with several smaller-scale
disturbances moving through the larger-scale feature.  Downstream,
a short-wave trough is forecast to depart New England during the
first half of the period, as the southeastern U.S. high expands
northward to eventually encompass the entire eastern CONUS.
At the surface, high pressure will prevail over the East, while a
weak warm front lingers over the Midwest and combination convective
outflow/cold front lingers south-southwest to north-northeast across
the Plains.
...Parts of western Texas northeastward to southern portions of
the Upper Great Lakes...  As an upper short-wave trough/low shifts
northeastward across the northern Plains into Manitoba/Ontario, a
belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will be maintained across
central portions of the country -- sandwiched between large-scale
western troughing, and eastern ridging.
Beneath the belt of fast southwesterly flow, a weak baroclinic
zone is forecast to extend south-southwestward across the Plains,
while a weak warm front lifts slowly northward across the Midwest.
The specific location of the aforementioned Plains front remains
uncertain -- largely due to outflow associated with ongoing
convection expected to linger into the beginning of the period.
As this outflow/frontal conglomerate will play a substantial role
in subsequent diurnal convection, narrowing down possible areas of
more concentrated risk stemming from afternoon storms.
With that said, the overall environment will feature a
moist/destabilizing warm-sector airmass, and with the belt of
enhanced flow aloft collocated with the favorable thermodynamics,
strong/locally severe storms will result.
While flow across the Plains will exhibit at least some west-of-south
orientation across much of the area, little veering with height
is expected, which should limit tornado potential across much of
the region, with large hail and locally damaging winds the main
risks.  Exceptions would be near any possible remnant convective
circulations, and also over the upper Midwest region (parts of the
Iowa/southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois vicinity) near the weak
warm front.  Resulting, more favorable low-level directional shear
suggests slightly greater risk for a couple of tornadoes across
these areas.
After reaching a diurnal peak, a slow decrease in convective coverage
and intensity is expected into the evening.  Storms may maintain
intensity longer over the upper Midwest/southern Upper Great Lakes
area, where a 50-plus kt southwesterly low-level jet is expected
to evolve.
..Goss/Squitieri.. 05/24/2019
 SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236
AM CDT Fri May 24 2019
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
INDIANA EASTWARD TO WESTERN NEW YORK AND PARTS OF PENNSYLVANIA...
...SUMMARY...  Strong to severe storms will be possible Saturday
from a portion of the southern through Central Plains as well as
farther east across a part of the Ohio Valley.
...Synopsis...  Large-scale troughing across the West will be
reinforced by a vigorous disturbance migrating southward from western
Washington State into northern California throughout the forecast
period and another sharpening wave migrating eastward toward Baja
California.  Across the center portions of the country, southwesterly
mid-level flow will persist along the northwestern periphery of
a stout anticyclone over the Southeast.  A 50-65 kt mid-level jet
will traverse the Great Lakes through the forecast period on the
southern periphery of a shortwave just south of Hudson Bay.
The surface pattern will favor maintenance of a broad area of
warm/moist low-levels owing to southerly/southwesterly flow on
the western periphery of a surface high centered just east of
the Mid-Atlantic.  Meanwhile, surface cyclogenesis will occur near
southeastern Colorado along a weak surface trough/dryline that will
extend southward along the New Mexico/Texas border area.
...Southern and central Plains...  Modest shortwave ridging
will persist across much of the region through mid-afternoon
before shifting eastward after around 21Z.  Meanwhile, southerly
low-level flow will encourage northward advection of mid 60s
to near 70s F dewpoints across much of the Plains east of the
aforementioned dryline.  Convection will develop along the dryline
and northeastward along a weak front over west-central Kansas in
an environment characterized by strong instability (80s F surface
temps/60s F dewpoints beneath 8 deg C/km mid-level lapse rates),
with veering and strengthening wind fields with height supportive
of supercells initially - especially in the Enhanced Risk area.
As storm migrate eastward through the evening, higher boundary layer
moisture and strengthening low-level shear (attendant to nocturnal
boundary layer jet strengthening) will result in an increased tornado
threat through a few hours after sunset, though some upscale growth
may also occur as well.
Farther northeast (northeastern Kansas into southern Iowa),
shortwave ridging will shift into the region that will probably
keep most convection isolated and tied to convergence along a
front extending from southwest to northeast across the area.
Relatively weak low-level wind fields will exist compared to
areas farther west, although 8-8.5 deg C/km mid-level lapse rates
atop near 70 F dewpoints will foster strong instability, and deep
shear will support organization with any updrafts that can mature.
Large (perhaps significant) hail and damaging wind gusts are possible
in this regime, though uncertainty regarding convective coverage
precludes any probability/categorical risk upgrades at this time.
...Indiana eastward to Pennsylvania and western New York...
Mid-level wind fields will strengthen across the region in tandem
with an approaching mid-level wave over Ontario and vicinity.  Models
indicate that a band of storms will develop from northern Indiana to
Lake Ontario and grow upscale into linear segments while shifting
eastward/southeastward through the evening. More isolated activity
will exist downstream of this activity within a weakly inhibited
and moderately unstable airmass.  Sufficient deep shear will exist
for storm organization, though mostly unidirectional wind profiles
(with minimal veering) may result in a few marginal/splitting
supercellular structures with convection that can stay relatively
discrete.  The main threat with these storms will be damaging wind
gusts, though hail cannot be completely ruled out.  Storms should
spread eastward through Pennsylvania and western New York, and may
spread southeastward toward Maryland overnight as forcing for ascent
shifts southeastward.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...  Tornado:  10%     - Enhanced Wind:
30%     - Enhanced Hail:     30% SIG - Enhanced
..Cook.. 05/24/2019
 SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...Synopsis...  A stationary, amplified mid-level shortwave trough
will be in place across the southwest CONUS through much of the
period. During the afternoon hours, a mid-level perturbation embedded
within the aforementioned shortwave will traverse the central Plains,
with the entrance region of a mid-level jet streak positioned
over New Mexico, where surface lee troughing and associated dry,
westerly downslope flow will prevail. With a deeply mixed boundary
layer expected to be in place during the afternoon hours across
New Mexico, the stronger flow aloft will mix down to the surface,
promoting conditions that will generally favor some potential for
wildfire spread.
By mid-afternoon, surface temperatures are expected to exceed 80F in
several locales in central and eastern New Mexico, with RH values
dropping to 10-15% and 15-25 mph sustained surface westerly winds
becoming established with peak boundary layer mixing and associated
downslope flow. An elevated area was delineated where favorable
wind/RH overlaps fuels that are at least marginally supportive of
fire spread. Shortly after sunset, nocturnal cooling will stabilize
the boundary layer, with weakening surface winds and RH recovery
tempering the wildfire threat.
..Squitieri.. 05/24/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+

The end of the world will occur at 3:00 p.m., this Friday, with symposium
to follow.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////




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