| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 28.03.19 07:04z 175 Lines 9425 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 20618_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 28 03
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<GB7COW<ZS0MEE<GB7YEW<LU9DCE
Sent: 190328/0700Z 20618@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SOPORTE TECNICO - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229
AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday from
the West Coast eastward across the central Rockies to the mid
Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Lower Ohio Valleys. No severe weather
is expected across the CONUS Thursday or Thursday night.
...Discussion... With stronger upper flow largely confined to Canada
Thursday, a relatively low-amplitude pattern is progged across
the CONUS. An upper low initially residing off the West Coast
is forecast to weaken with time, as smaller-scale perturbations
rotating through the cyclonic flow surrounding the low to eject
inland/across the Intermountain West. Farther east, low-amplitude
ridging initially prevailing over the central and southern states
will gradually evolve toward more zonal/westerly flow, partially in
response to the eastward ejection of the western U.S. disturbances.
At the surface, the trailing portion of a cold front advancing
across eastern Canada will sag slowly southeastward across the
Midwest/central Plains, while lee troughing persists across the
central High Plains. Finally, a cold front is forecast to advance
across the Four Corners states through Friday morning.
A roughly west-to-east zone of thunder potential is evident
from Oregon/northern California east to the lower Missouri/mid
Mississippi Valley. The convection will be aided by the passage of
aforementioned upper perturbations across western portions of this
area, and farther east, by warm advection atop the sagging frontal
zone east of the Rockies. Additionally, a southwestward extension
of the thunder area is being introduced across Oklahoma and Texas,
where a isolated/high-based storm or two may develop through peak
heating/mixing. In all areas, severe weather risk appears minimal
at this time.
..Goss.. 03/28/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220
AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of
Oklahoma beginning Friday late afternoon and persisting into
Friday night. Large hail and severe gusts are the primary threats.
...OK vicinity... A mid-level trough will move from the eastern
Great Basin Friday morning to the central Plains by daybreak
Saturday. An attendant speed max will move into the south-central
Plains from the Desert Southwest primarily after dark. An elongated,
ill-defined surface low/triple point is forecast over OK Friday
afternoon with a frontal zone extending to the east-northeast into
the lower MO Valley.
Large model differences are apparent in the amount of heating
forecast to occur across OK Friday afternoon with temperatures
ranging from the low-mid 60s to middle 70s F. Consequentially,
models correspondingly show meager buoyancy associated with vertical
profiles depicting cooler temperatures/stratus versus cloud breaks
and a warmer/moderately unstable boundary layer. The strong westerly
component of flow above the boundary layer will aid in maintaining
a capping inversion over the warm sector through most of the day
and perhaps as late as the early evening. There is considerable
uncertainty on the coverage of storm development, with solutions
ranging from isolated near the triple point/dryline to very little.
However, the very steep 700-500mb lapse rates (8-9 degrees C/km) and
moderate deep-layer shear yield a conditional risk for severe storms.
It seems the greatest chance for storms will focus in vicinity of
the front as southerly 850mb flow strengthens during the evening.
Will refrain from a change this forecast update to the ongoing
forecast until greater clarity is resolved in the most probable
scenario.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: 15%
- Slight Hail: 15% - Slight
..Smith.. 03/28/2019
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148
AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
NORTHERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN ARKANSAS NORTH INTO
WESTERN KENTUCKY...
...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
on Saturday from parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and lower
Ohio Valley. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary hazard.
...Lower MS Valley into western KY... A mid-level trough over
the Ozarks will phase with a northern stream, larger-scale trough
digging into the Great Lakes on Saturday. A surface low initially
over the OH Valley will rapidly develop northeast into Quebec by
early Sunday as an elongated cold front pushes east across portions
of the Mid South/MS Valley. Surface ridging in the northeast Gulf of
Mexico suggests moisture quality will be lacking in the pre-frontal
warm sector. Nonetheless, showers and thunderstorms are forecast
to continue through the morning over the Ozarks into the OH Valley
with other diurnal development possible farther south in the lower
MS Valley. Strong west-southwesterly mid-level flow may contribute
to some convective line organization. Isolated damaging gusts may
accompany the stronger storms.
..Smith.. 03/28/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough will move over the
Intermountain West with a mid-level jet (50-75 knots) stretching from
the eastern Pacific into the Southwest/southern Rockies today. Lee
troughing will develop across the central/southern High Plains as
downslope flow increases, and a surface cold front will begin to
push southward across the Plains.
...Portions of the Southwest/southern High Plains... Elevated
conditions will develop across much of New Mexico and portions of
southeast Arizona/San Luis Valley/southeast Colorado today. Westerly
winds of 15-20 mph with RH values of 8-20% are expected, and some
areas may experience locally critical conditions with southern New
Mexico, New Mexico central highlands, and lee slopes/plains of the
Sacramento Mountains favored.
Fuel receptiveness is somewhat uncertain, especially in fine
fuels, where recent rainfall may limit the fire threat, although
green-up has not begun. Heavier fuel moisture values are around
normal for this time of year, which should mostly confine the fire
threat to finer fuels. Portions of northeast Arizona will likely
experience elevated conditions, but fuel conditions (e.g., dryness,
loading/continuity) preclude an area.
..Nauslar.. 03/28/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO...
...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough will swing southeast
over the Rockies and central Plains on Friday with a westerly
mid-level jet (50-75 knots) stretching from California to the
central/southern Plains. Lee troughing will strengthen across the
southern High Plains, and a cold front will impinge on the southern
Plains and push southward overnight into Texas.
...Portions of the Southwest/southern High Plains... As strong
westerly flow overspreads the Southwest/southern High Plains
on Friday, elevated conditions (westerly winds of 15-20 mph, RH
values of 10-20%) will develop across a wide swath of the region
with critical conditions (westerly winds of 20-25 mph, RH values of
5-15%) likely to develop across portions of east-central New Mexico.
Some locally extremely critical meteorological conditions (westerly
winds of 30 mph, RH values of 5-10%) may also be possible within
the critical. Critical conditions may also develop across portions
of southern New Mexico and in the lee of the Sacramento/Guadalupe
Mountains.
Near normal fuel moisture values in heavier fuels and recent
rainfall in portions of the delineated area may mitigate the fire
threat. However, forecast 10-hour dead fuel moisture values of 3-6%
indicate fine fuels are likely to reach critically dry values across
much of the area by Friday afternoon.
..Nauslar.. 03/28/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
You dialed 5483.
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Soporte tecnico las 24hs - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
- Servidores / empresas / Desktop
* Mantenimiento * Optimizacion * Soluciones
* Seguridad - Proteccion
--------------------------- Abono mensual - Consulte
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
