| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 26.03.19 12:42z 149 Lines 7822 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 20541_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 26 03
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK6ZDE<VE2PKT<N3HYM<LU3DVN<LU9DCE
Sent: 190326/1241Z 20541@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SOPORTE TECNICO - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248
AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NM AND FAR WEST TX...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across
portions of far west Texas into southwestern New Mexico.
...NM/West TX...
Late-evening model guidance is in general agreement regarding the
evolution of large-scale features across the southwestern US through
the day1 period. Upper ridging currently located along the AZ/NM
border is expected to shift east to near the TX border by 27/00z
which will allow somewhat stronger southwesterly mid-high level
flow to materialize by peak heating. Downstream, dominant Plains
surface ridge has forced higher-quality boundary-layer moisture into
deep south TX and adjacent regions of northern Mexico east of the
Orientals. As the upper ridge flattens across the southern Rockies,
low-level trajectories will become more favorable for higher-PW
airmass to surge northwest across far west TX into southern NM.
Latest surface analysis at 05Z suggest this is underway as surface
dew points have risen into the mid 40s across southern Presidio
county over the last few hours. There is increasing confidence
that mid 40s-lower 50s dew points will advance into the MRGL
Risk region by peak heating. While there is no evidence for a
meaningful mid-level disturbance upstream of this region, strong
boundary-layer heating and orographic influences should contribute
to thunderstorm development as surface readings breach convective
temperatures, likely by 21-22z. Forecast shear profiles favor
supercell development and slow-moving storms should evolve from
northern Mexico northward into central NM by late afternoon. Latest
CAMs support this scenario and large hail should be the primary
risk with eastward-moving convection. At this time there is some
concern that storm coverage may be somewhat limited; however,
if it becomes more clear that scattered storms will develop then
higher severe probs may be warranted.
..Darrow/Nauslar.. 03/26/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219
AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
Pacific Northwest and northern California Wednesday. Isolated
thunderstorms are also possible across the southern High Plains
and central Plains Wednesday evening and overnight.
...Synopsis... A large mid-level low over the eastern Pacific will
move little during the Day 2 period as a disturbance will traverse
east along the Saskatchewan/Manitoba--U.S. border on the periphery
of a flattened central U.S. ridge. A series of weak impulses will
promote the development of showers and isolated thunderstorms from
the CA Central Valley north and northeast into ID/NV. Small hail
may occur with the strongest updrafts in the CA Central Valley.
Farther east, marginal low-level moisture may contribute to widely
spaced thunderstorms developing in vicinity of a lee trough over
parts of the southern High Plains late in the day. Weak elevated
thunderstorms are possible primarily Wednesday evening/night over
parts of the central Plains east to the middle MS Valley.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Smith.. 03/26/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will prevail over much of the
central CONUS with troughs over the West/East Coasts today. An
upper-level shortwave trough will rotate along the periphery of
the ridge over the northern Rockies with enhanced mid-level flow
of 45-60 knots over the Great Basin. Lee troughing will extend
southward from eastern Montana into eastern Wyoming/Colorado
resulting in warm/dry/breezy conditions across eastern Colorado.
Elevated conditions are possible across southeast Colorado with
southwest winds 15-20 mph and RH values of 10-20% likely during the
afternoon. However, uncertainty regarding fuels, especially after
recent rainfall, precludes from introducing an elevated area across
southeast Colorado. Southerly winds of 15-25 mph with RH values
of 8-20% are likely to develop across the southern Great Basin and
into northern Arizona, but fuels are not critical in this region.
..Nauslar.. 03/26/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue over much of the
central CONUS with a shortwave trough flattening the top of the
ridge along the US/Canadian border and troughs over both coasts on
Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move over the Southeast leading
to dry north-northeasterly flow across portions of the Carolinas,
Georgia, and northern Florida.
Northeasterly surface winds of 8-15 mph with RH values of 15-30% are
likely to develop Wednesday afternoon stretching southwestward from
central South Carolina into northern Florida. However, rainfall
Monday evening/night and forecast rainfall today across much of
this area may mitigate the fire threat. ERCs are above the 80th
percentile across this area, and if the forecast precipitation
does not materialize today, an elevated area may be added similar
to the 40% probability of critical conditions on the current Day
3-8 outlook.
Dry/windy conditions will also develop across portions of the Great
Basin and Southwest as a mid-level jet overspreads the region
with elevated conditions possible across portions of southeast
Arizona/southern New Mexico.
..Nauslar.. 03/26/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
The Bulwer-Lytton fiction contest is held ever year at San Jose State Univ.
by Professor Scott Rice. It is held in memory of Edward George Earle
Bulwer-Lytton (1803-1873), a rather prolific and popular (in his time)
novelist. He is best known today for having written "The Last Days of
Pompeii."
Whenever Snoopy starts typing his novel from the top of his doghouse, beginning
"It was a dark and stormy night..." he is borrowing from Lord Bulwer-Lytton.
This was the line that opened his novel, "Paul Clifford," written in 1830.
The full line reveals why it is so bad:
It was a dark and stormy night; the rain fell in torrents -- except
at occasional intervals, when it was checked by a violent gust of
wind which swept up the streets (for it is in London that our scene
lies), rattling along the housetops, and fiercely agitating the
scanty flame of the lamps that struggled against the darkness.
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Soporte tecnico las 24hs - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
- Servidores / empresas / Desktop
* Mantenimiento * Optimizacion * Soluciones
* Seguridad - Proteccion
--------------------------- Abono mensual - Consulte
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
