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LU9DCE > ALERT 17.09.21 14:37z 209 Lines 8228 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5482_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 17-SEP.21
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 210917/1430Z 5482@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Fri, 17 Sep 2021 03:19:02 +0000
Fri, 17 Sep 2021 03:19:02 +0000
general
1
WW 506 SEVERE TSTM NE SD 170115Z - 170800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 506
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
815 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and western Nebraska
Southern South Dakota
* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 815 PM
until 300 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Growing clusters of thunderstorms on either side of a
slow-moving cold front should pose a severe hail/wind threat, as
they access a strengthening low-level jet, and move east-
northeastward across the watch area tonight.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles south
southwest of Mullen NE to 30 miles northeast of Oneill NE. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 504...WW 505...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
24030.
...Edwards
Read more
Fri, 17 Sep 2021 02:49:05 +0000
WW 0506 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 506
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..09/17/21
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GID...FSD...UNR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 506
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC009-015-017-031-041-047-071-075-077-089-091-103-111-113-115-
117-149-163-171-175-183-170340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINEBOYD BROWN
CHERRYCUSTERDAWSON
GARFIELD GRANTGREELEY
HOLTHOOKERKEYA PAHA
LINCOLNLOGANLOUP
MCPHERSONROCK SHERMAN
THOMASVALLEYWHEELER
SDC003-015-023-035-043-053-121-123-170340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORABRULECHARLES MIX
DAVISONDOUGLAS GREGORY
TODDTRIPP
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
Read more
Fri, 17 Sep 2021 02:49:05 +0000
WW 0505 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 505
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW MKT
TO 35 NE RWF TO 25 NE STC.
..BROYLES..09/17/21
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 505
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC059-085-141-171-170340-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ISANTIMCLEODSHERBURNE
WRIGHT
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Fri, 17 Sep 2021 02:49:06 +0000
WW 0504 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 504
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N STC TO
45 ENE BRD TO 20 SSW BFW.
..BROYLES..09/17/21
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 504
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC001-017-065-095-115-170340-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AITKINCARLTON KANABEC
MILLE LACSPINE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Fri, 17 Sep 2021 02:48:05 +0000
MD 1764 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 504... FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MINNESOTA...FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1764
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0853 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021
Areas affected...Southern and Eastern Minnesota...Far Northwest
Wisconsin
Concerning...Tornado Watch 504...
Valid 170153Z - 170400Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 504 continues.
SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue for a few
more hours across WW 504 and WW 505. Although large hail and wind
damage will be the most probable threats, a tornado still cannot be
ruled out in parts of eastern and northeastern Minnesota. A new
weather watch is not anticipated to the east of the ongoing watches.
DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Minneapolis shows a
north-to-south oriented cluster of strong to severe storms in
northeast Minnesota. More widely spaced convection is located across
south-central Minnesota. The storms are located along the eastern
edge of a corridor of moderate instability along which the RAP is
estimating MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/Kg range. In addition, the
WSR-88D VWP at Minneapolis has directional shear in the lowest 2 km
with 50 to 60 kt of west-southwest flow in the mid-levels. This will
continue to support supercell potential this evening. Supercells
will be capable of producing isolated large hail and wind damage. A
tornado threat will continue across parts of eastern and
northeastern Minnesota where low-level shear is more favorable. The
storms will continue to move east-northeastward over the next few
hours, encountering more stable air to the east of the ongoing
watches. For this reason, any severe threat should become marginal
late this evening.
..Broyles.. 09/17/2021
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FSD...
LAT...LON48349119 47589216 46069377 44909492 44359543 43999560
43659535 43639498 43709451 44059363 45559235 47319073
48029037 48349119
Read more
Fri, 17 Sep 2021 01:54:04 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MINNESOTA
INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA...AND A SMALL
PORTION OF NORTHWEST IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms remain possible from Minnesota into Nebraska, with a
threat of large hail, damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes.
...MN...SD...NE...IA...
A vigorous upper trough will continue eastward across the northern
Plains through tonight, providing height falls, strong deep-layer
shear, and 40 kt midlevel flow as far south as NE and IA.
At the surface, a cold front will continue to move southeastward
across MN, NE and IA, with a 40 kt southwesterly low-level jet
across the warm sector. Numerous storms including a few supercells
are currently ongoing along the MN portion of the front, where
effective SRH around 300 m2/s2 is also favorable for tornadoes.
However, boundary-layer temperature/dewpoint spreads of 20-25 F may
mitigate that threat somewhat, but may favor damaging winds.
To the southwest, ample instability has developed over parts of NE
as well. The 00Z LBF sounding shows steep lapse rates and around
1750 J/kg MLCAPE, with modest shear favorable for high-based
supercells. A lone cell currently exists near OGA NE, but additional
storms are likely near the front this evening. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the primary risks across NE and southeast SD
as storms increase in coverage late.
For more information, see mesoscale discussions 1761 and 1762.
..Jewell.. 09/17/2021
Read more
Fri, 17 Sep 2021 00:47:26 +0000
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