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LU9DCE > ALERT 14.09.21 14:37z 190 Lines 7986 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5332_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 14-SEP.21
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<PY2BIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 210914/1430Z 5332@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
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Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Tue, 14 Sep 2021 02:30:02 +0000
Tue, 14 Sep 2021 02:30:02 +0000
general
1
WW 497 SEVERE TSTM NJ PA 132345Z - 140500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 497
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
745 PM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern New Jersey
Eastern Pennsylvania
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 745 PM
until 100 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A cluster of strong-severe thunderstorms upshear over
north-central/northeastern PA may produce damaging/severe gusts and
large hail as it moves across the watch area, before weakening near
the Atlantic Coast.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 25
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest
of Allentown PA to 20 miles northeast of Trenton NJ. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 496...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29035.
...Edwards
Read more
Tue, 14 Sep 2021 02:23:05 +0000
WW 0497 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 497
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE TTN
TO 20 NE TTN.
REMAINING VALID PORTION MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO SCHEDULED WW
05Z EXPIRATION, AS CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVES OFFSHORE.
..KERR..09/14/21
ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 497
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NJC023-140340-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MIDDLESEX
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Tue, 14 Sep 2021 02:23:06 +0000
WW 0496 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 496
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CXY
TO 30 WSW AVP.
..KERR..09/14/21
ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 496
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
PAC037-093-097-107-109-140140-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA MONTOUR NORTHUMBERLAND
SCHUYLKILLSNYDER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Tue, 14 Sep 2021 00:26:06 +0000
MD 1741 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA.
Mesoscale Discussion 1741
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0923 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021
Areas affected...Far eastern Nebraska into western and north-central
Iowa.
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 140223Z - 140400Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated strong to severe storm may occur with a threat
of large hail and damaging winds.
DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has developed in far eastern
Nebraska and western Iowa. However, so far, these storms have been
quite weak. The 00Z KOAX RAOB can provide a likely explanation.
MUCAPE is over 3000 J/kg, driven by a capped surface parcel.
However, based on the moisture profile, these storms are likely
forming in the moist layer just below 500mb. From this layer, CAPE
is quite low and thus, likely explains the weak nature of the
2000 J/kg MUCAPE in the region. RAP forecast soundings show
continued moistening below this layer which may gradually increase
the depth of the instability and support more robust updraft
development. Additionally, any storms rooted above 800mb will likely
have minimal effective shear with mostly uniform southwesterly flow
between 45 and 55 knots per RAP forecast soundings overnight. Given
the multiple factors against sustained strong updraft development, a
watch is unlikely, but convective trends will continue to be
monitored.
..Bentley/Edwards.. 09/14/2021
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON42139704 42819545 43299427 43149291 42719251 41539356
41329550 41369637 41619685 42139704
Read more
Tue, 14 Sep 2021 02:24:03 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021
Valid 140100Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN...ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA...AND OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms remain possible from southeast
South Dakota and southern Minnesota/northern Iowa into Wisconsin
this evening into tonight, in addition to parts of southern New
York, northern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. A tornado cannot be
ruled out along the Upper Texas Coast.
...Northeast...
A cluster of cells over eastern PA may continue to pose a wind or
marginal hail threat in the short term as it travels east/southeast
along the instability gradient. Behind this activity, an unstable
air mass remains over OH and PA, with elevated storms forming over
the thumb of MI and Southwest Ontario. West/southwest winds around
850 mb will aid theta-e advection along and north of the synoptic
front, with additional storms possible this evening and overnight.
00Z soundings from DTX and PIT show impressive midlevel lapse rates
along with favorable deep-layer shear for elevated hail. Damaging
winds may occur with storms near the surface front.
..Upper MS Valley...
Scattered thunderstorms exist well north of the surface low, from
near the SD/MN border eastward into northwest WI. The 00Z MPX
sounding shows elevated instability along with deep-layer shear
supporting hail potential. To the southwest, the OAX sounding is
more unstable ahead of the cold front, but capped. Still, SBCAPE is
around 3000 J/kg, with a hodograph favoring supercells.
As the low shifts northeastward across MN and into WI, storms are
likely to increase in coverage, aided by low-level warm/moist
advection. Much of this activity may be elevated due to a cooling
boundary layer. Large hail will be possible. Damaging winds may also
occur should storms organize into an MCS and as surface dewpoints
slowly warm.
...Middle/Upper Texas Coast...
Tropical Storm Nicholas is currently moving north/northeast toward
the Upper TX Coast, with an expansive area of precipitation limiting
destabilization over land. Marginally favorable effective SRH may
develop coincident with non-zero SBCAPE, resulting in a low-end
tornado threat. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1740.
..Jewell.. 09/14/2021
Read more
Tue, 14 Sep 2021 01:05:57 +0000
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