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LU9DCE > ALERT 25.03.19 07:03z 233 Lines 12004 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 20503_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 25 03
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190325/0700Z 20503@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SOPORTE TECNICO - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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WW 33 SEVERE TSTM AR OK TX 242205Z - 250500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 33 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 505 PM CDT Sun Mar
24 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern and western
Arkansas Southeastern Oklahoma North central and northeastern Texas
* Effective this Sunday afternoon from 505 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with
isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development appears to be underway
along a surface boundary from north Texas into eastern Oklahoma
and northwestern Arkansas. The storms are expected to increase in
coverage/intensity through late evening, with the primary threat
being large hail with supercells. Some damaging wind threat could
evolve tonight as storms cluster from northeastern Texas into
southwestern Arkansas.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles north northeast
of Flippin AR to 50 miles east southeast of Dallas TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 32...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29025.
...Thompson
WW 0033 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 33
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE GYI TO
25 NW PRX TO 30 ENE PRX TO 10 WNW DEQ TO 25 N DEQ TO 35 SE RKR TO
25 NE LIT.
..JEWELL..03/25/19
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...OUN...FWD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 33
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC019-051-057-059-061-073-081-091-097-099-109-113-119-125-133-
250540-
AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK GARLAND HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING
HOWARD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER
MONTGOMERY NEVADA PIKE POLK PULASKI
SALINE SEVIER
OKC089-250540-
OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
TXC037-063-067-085-113-119-121-147-159-181-183-223-231-257-277-
343-379-387-397-423-439-449-459-467-499-250540-
MD 0238 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0238 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019
Areas affected...Parts of northeast Texas...northwest Louisiana
and adjacent southern Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 250647Z - 250815Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Some risk for severe hail and wind may linger in stronger
storms for another hour or two, mainly across the Interstate 20
corridor of northeast Texas, before likely diminishing by 4-5 AM CDT.
An additional severe weather watch is not anticipated.
DISCUSSION...The most vigorous thunderstorm development is now
generally focused west-northwest through north/northeast of Tyler
TX, within a remnant axis of stronger, but waning boundary layer
destabilization associated with yesterday's daytime heating, and a
return flow of Gulf moisture that persists. This now appears to be
just ahead of a southward advancing surface cold front, which may
gradually tend to undercut the stronger convection and associated
unstable boundary layer air through 09-10z, as it progresses across
the Interstate 20 corridor. As this occurs, storm intensities are
expected to diminish. Until then, some risk for severe hail and
gusty surface winds may remain possible in isolated stronger storms
for another hour or two.
..Kerr.. 03/25/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...
LAT...LON 32369573 32539485 32799390 33039328 32919297 32209356
31919510 32089642 32369573
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman
OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF AL AND GA...
CORRECTED FOR HAIL PROBABILITIES
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from
portions of Alabama into western Georgia Monday afternoon into
early evening. Hail is the primary risk.
...Gulf States...
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts two distinct short-wave
troughs upstream of the Gulf States. One feature is digging
southeast along the IL/MO border while the lower-latitude short
wave is approaching the Arklatex. Deep convection is noted ahead of
these features at 0530z from northeast TX into western KY. Latest
model guidance suggests this activity will propagate southeast and
weaken by sunrise along a corridor from middle TN into central LA.
Boundary-layer moisture has been slow to recover across the
central Gulf States and this early-day convection is expected
to remain weak before spreading into northern GA. Redevelopment
is expected along a pronounced front later in the afternoon. If
sufficient low-level heating can materialize in the wake of this
weak convection/debris, isolated surface-based thunderstorms should
materialize within a veered boundary-layer flow regime ahead of the
wind shift. Convective temperatures are expected to be breached as
temperatures warm into the upper 60s/lower 70s. Forecast soundings
suggest deep-layer shear will support supercell development and
large hail is the primary risk with convection that evolves within
favorably forced region of upper trough. This activity is expected
to spread into portions of GA during the late afternoon.
South of the mid-level jet, along the trailing cold front,
negligible large-scale forcing/weak low-level convergence will be
noted along the wind shift into the upper TX Coast region. It's
not entirely clear how much convection will evolve along the front
across southern LA west to the upper TX Coast, but boundary-layer
heating and favorable buoyancy should be adequate for a few storms.
Forecast soundings suggest supercell structures are possible and
hail is the primary concern.
..Darrow/Nauslar.. 03/25/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224
AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Probability of severe thunderstorms is currently
less than 5% across all areas.
...Synopsis and Discussion... At the beginning of the period,
a cold front is expected to extend from a surface low just off the
SC coast southwestward through the FL Panhandle across the northern
Gulf of Mexico and into deep south TX. Passage of this cold front
on Monday will have scoured out the low-level moisture across the
Southeast and much of the southern Plains. Eastern portion front
is expected to continue southeastward through FL while the western
portion stalls over south TX and diffuses.
Warm temperatures aloft and weak forcing for ascent will likely
preclude thunderstorm development across FL and south TX during the
day. Some isolated thunderstorms appear possible across northern FL
and adjacent portions of southern GA as a compact shortwave trough
moves through during the evening and overnight. Limited low-level
moisture and cool temperatures are currently expected to temper
instability, keeping thunderstorm coverage less than 10%.
Moisture return is expected across the southern High Plains, with
dewpoints reaching the low 50s by Tuesday evening. This modest
moisture return will likely be enough to promote weak instability
within the deeply mixed air mass across the region. Convergence
along the lee trough as well as favorable orographic effects will
result in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development.
Given the steep lapse rates and vertically veering wind profiles,
some severe threat is possible, although severe potential is
currently too low to delineate any areas.
A lightning strike or two is also possible across the interior
valley of CA during the afternoon and evening and along the northern
CA coast overnight. However, thunderstorm coverage is currently
expected to be less than 10%.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Mosier.. 03/25/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build over the
Intermountain West and into Alberta/Saskatchewan today with
upper-level troughs over the Pacific Coast and eastern CONUS. A
surface cold front will push south-southeast through much of Texas
and the Southeast with thunderstorms/showers forming along/ahead of
the front and cooler/drier conditions behind it. Weaker mid-level
flow over the Southwest/southern High Plains will weaken lee
troughing and relax the surface pressure gradient leading to lighter
surface winds (< 10 mph). Insolation and deep boundary-layer mixing
across the Southwest/southern High Plains will lead to low surface
RH (8-20%) and warm temperatures except across portions of eastern
New Mexico/West Texas where the cold front passes through.
..Nauslar.. 03/25/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will prevail across much of
the central CONUS as troughing continues over the West/East Coasts
on Tuesday. An upper-level shortwave trough will track along the
periphery of the ridge over the northern Rockies with enhanced
mid-level flow of 45-65 knots overspreading much of the Great Basin.
Southerly surface winds of 15-25 mph and RH values of 8-20%
will develop across portions of the southern Great Basin/northern
Arizona, but fuels are not critical across this region. Lee troughing
extending southward from central Montana into Wyoming/Colorado will
result in warm/dry/breezy conditions across portions of southeast
Wyoming/eastern Colorado. Elevated conditions (south-southwest winds
of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%) may develop Tuesday afternoon
with southeast Colorado favored. However, uncertainty regarding
fuel dryness, especially after recent rainfall, precludes from
introducing an elevated area at this time.
..Nauslar.. 03/25/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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