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LU9DCE > ALERT 24.01.21 17:32z 164 Lines 8616 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2561_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 24 01
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<I0BLC<GB7CIP<N7HPX<GB7YEW<ZL2BAU<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 210124/1630Z 2561@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM NODE-BBS Flat Earth Society
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151
PM CST Sat Jan 23 2021
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms capable of producing
large hail and isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon
through tonight across parts of the southern Plains.
...Southern Plains/Ozarks... An upper-level trough will move
eastward across the Desert Southwest today as southwest mid-level
flow becomes established in the southern Plains. At the surface,
a cold front will advance southeastward across the southern Plains
today as moisture advection occurs to the south of the front. By
afternoon, the front position should be located from near Lubbock
northeastward into southern Oklahoma. Surface dewpoints to the
south of the front in the Red River Valley and across northwest
Texas are forecast to be mostly in the 50s F. A capping inversion
should prevent convection from initiating for much of the day. But
as surface heating and low-level convergence increase, isolated
thunderstorms appear likely to develop in north Texas along and just
ahead of the front during the late afternoon. Convection is forecast
to expand rapidly in the early evening as warm advection increases
across north Texas and southern Oklahoma. Thunderstorm development
should continue across much of Oklahoma, north Texas and Arkansas
as the upper-level trough approaches during the overnight period.
Instability is forecast to gradually increase today to the south of
the front across central and north Texas. By early evening, a pocket
of moderate instability may develop across parts of west-central
Texas. As instability increases during the evening, a severe threat
will be possible in southern Oklahoma and north Texas. NAM forecast
soundings to the west of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metro during the
early evening have MLCAPE reaching 1000 J/kg. Effective shear is
forecast to gradually increase from around 55 kt at 00Z to 70 kt
at 06Z. As a result, the severe threat is forecast to gradually
increase during the evening. Forecast soundings suggest that the
steepest lapse rates will be located above 700 mb. This will be
favorable for hail, especially with supercells that can organize.
Isolated strong wind gusts may also occur in southern Oklahoma and
north Texas as cells become more surface-based during the evening.
Thunderstorms, accompanied by an isolated severe threat, are forecast
to move eastward across southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas in
the mid to late evening. A marginal severe threat may also develop
in parts of Arkansas during the overnight period as warm advection
increases.
..Broyles/Lyons.. 01/24/2021
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258
AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
NORTH-NORTHEAST TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY AREA...
...SUMMARY... A few strong to perhaps locally severe storms may
linger into Monday from East Texas to the mid Mississippi Valley.
...Synopsis... As elongated upper troughing along the West Coast
digs south-southeastward, reinforcing the mean long-wave trough over
the West, a weakening feature -- ejecting from the western trough
today -- will shift northeastward across the central Plains and
into the Midwest. East and southeast of this feature, low-amplitude
ridging will prevail.
At the surface, a low initially expected across Oklahoma will
move east-northeastward into the Ohio Valley, gradually filling in
conjunction with the weakening of the upper system. A cold front
trailing from this system -- across eastern Oklahoma and East Texas
at the start of the period -- will similarly become more ill-defined
with time, as it moves across the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys
and sags into the central Gulf Coast States overnight.
...East Texas to the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers...
Showers and embedded thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at
the start of the period from eastern portions of the central and
southern Plains, eastward to the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
Early in the period, a few robust storms may persist into the morning
and possibly midday hours, along with local/attendant risk for
primarily hail. With time however, as the surface and upper systems
weaken and shift east-northeastward, a less unstable warm sector
with eastward extent should yield steadily diminishing convective
intensity through the afternoon and into the evening hours.
..Goss.. 01/24/2021
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219
AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on
Tuesday.
...Discussion... As an upper low/trough over the Gulf of Alaska
digs southeastward toward the West Coast, a trough/low over the Great
Basin/Desert Southwest will be kicked east-northeastward across the
central and southern Rockies into the Central and Southern Plains.
As this occurs, weak cyclogenesis is expected into the second half
of the period over the western Gulf of Mexico vicinity, along a
remnant baroclinic zone.
Showers, and a few thunderstorms, are expected across portions of
the central and southern Appalachians/southeastern U.S. early in
the period. Some increase in shower/thunderstorm activity may occur
during the second half of the period just a bit farther west, into
the lower Mississippi Valley area and central Gulf Coast states,
as low-level warm advection increases in response to the approach
of the next system. However, with the boundary layer expected to
remain slightly stable, and elevated instability minimal, convection
should remain generally weak/disorganized.
Elsewhere, showers -- and an occasional/embedded lightning flash --
are expected across portions of the Southwest.
..Goss.. 01/24/2021
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are not expected across
the CONUS over the next 24 hours. A progressive upper-air pattern
with several fast-moving shortwave troughs will favor below-average
temperatures and above-average precipitation chances across much of
the country. With little overlap of dry surface conditions, strong
winds, and receptive fuels, fire weather conditions are unlikely.
..Lyons.. 01/24/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Upper-level troughs will continue to progress
across the southern and central CONUS as the upper-air pattern
gradually becomes more amplified. Widespread precipitation and
cooler temperatures are expected, which will mitigate much of
the fire weather risk across the US. The only exception will be
the possibility of locally elevated fire weather conditions in
the windy post-frontal airmass across eastern New Mexico and west
Texas. However, the narrow temporal window ahead of a second cold
front and forecast precipitation accumulations will likely dampen
the threat.
..Lyons.. 01/24/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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