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LU9DCE > ALERT    23.01.21 16:41z 190 Lines 10074 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2483_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 23 01
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RES<ON0AR<VE2PKT<PY2BIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 210123/1630Z 2483@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21

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           (  )  / )( \/ _ \(    \ / __)(  __)  (  _ \(  _ \/ ___) 
           / (_/\) \/ (\__  )) D (( (__  ) _)    ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \ 
           \____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____)  (____/(____/(____/ 

               ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM) 
                   BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) 
                  LU9DCE@GMX.COM NODE-BBS Flat Earth Society 
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+

 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146
PM CST Fri Jan 22 2021
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...  A few non-severe thunderstorms may develop across
parts of southern California near the coast today.
...DISCUSSION...  An upper-level low will move south-southeastward
into southern California today. Strong large-scale ascent associated
with the upper-level low will contribute to a thunderstorm potential
along the coast of southern California. Instability is expected
to be too weak for severe thunderstorms. Elsewhere across the
continental United States, no thunderstorm activity is expected.
..Broyles/Lyons.. 01/23/2021
 SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101
AM CST Sat Jan 23 2021
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...  A few severe storms -- capable of producing hail --
may occur over portions of North Texas, southern Oklahoma, and far
western Arkansas Sunday evening/overnight.
...Synopsis...  While weakly anticyclonic/westerly flow will prevail
over the eastern half of the country Sunday and Sunday night,
a short-wave trough -- embedded within broader/long-wave cyclonic
flow over the West -- is forecast to eject northeastward from the
Desert Southwest, reaching the Kansas/Oklahoma area by the end of
the period.  Meanwhile, persistent large-scale cyclonic flow will
be maintained over the west, as elongated short-wave troughing digs
southeastward along the western NOAM coast.
At the surface, a rather ill-defined Pacific cold front crossing
the Desert Southwest will become a bit sharper with time, as surface
frontogenesis increases in a north-south zone encompassing roughly
the central third of Texas.  By the end of the period, a cold front
should extend from a surface low over the eastern Oklahoma/Arkansas
vicinity, south-southwestward across East and Deep South Texas.
Showers and occasional/embedded lighting will accompany the advance
of the upper trough across the Southwest/Four Corners states,
while more robust/widespread storms evolve mainly during the second
half of the period, in a zone of elevated warm advection over the
southern Plains vicinity.
...Portions of North Texas/southern Oklahoma/western Arkansas...
Current indications continue to suggest that despite low-level
theta-e advection, a capped boundary layer should persist across
the northern and eastern Texas warm sector, as the cold front
sharpens/shifts eastward across the southern Plains.  Still, as QG
ascent increases across north Texas and into Oklahoma with time,
expect elevated storms to erupt -- predominantly after dark -- across
this area.  Moderately steep mid-level lapse rates anticipated,
and presence of strong west-southwesterly flow increasing with
height through the cloud-bearing layer, suggest that a few stronger
storms -- possibly exhibiting mid-level updraft rotation -- will
eventually evolve.  As such, hail risk is apparent, as reflected
by the inclusion of a severe weather area.
At this time, risk for surface-based storms -- and thus potential for
damaging winds and even a tornado -- appears quite low, mainly due
to the likelihood that aforementioned capping hinders surface-based
development.  However, should ascent accompanying passage of the
front prove sufficient to force a band of near-surface-based storms,
low-end risks for these additional hazards would be possible.
This appears to be an unlikely scenario at this time, and thus
is reflected by the lack of wind/tornado probabilities.  However,
should hints that a possibly weaker cap, or stronger ascent, may
evolve across the area, appropriate forecast adjustments in later
outlooks may be considered.
..Goss.. 01/23/2021
 SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229
AM CST Sat Jan 23 2021
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...  Severe storms are not expected on Monday across
the CONUS.
...Discussion...  A persistent western U.S. long-wave trough is
progged to remain in place Monday, while anticyclonic westerlies
prevail over most of the East.  A short-wave trough -- ejecting
from the western long wave -- is expected to deamplify with time
as it shifts east-northeastward out of the central and southern
Plains, and crosses the Midwest/Ohio Valley region into the evening
and overnight.  Meanwhile, a second short-wave trough -- elongated
in a north-south orientation along the western NOAM Coast early --
is forecast to shift gradually inland.
As this western feature slowly progresses, showers -- and areas of
occasional/embedded lightning -- are expected, from the West Coast
states into the Great Basin/Four Corners states.  Meanwhile, showers
and scattered thunderstorms will spread across the southeastern
quarter of the country -- as far north as the Ohio Valley and
Mason/Dixon line.
Early in the period, a few stronger storms may be ongoing across
the Arklatex region, near an Arkansas surface low and trailing
cold front.  Any lingering/low-end severe risk appears at this time
insufficient to warrant any severe-weather probabilities.  As the
low/front, and associated area of convection -- continues eastward
into a more stable environment, potential for robust convection
should gradually diminish with time.
..Goss.. 01/23/2021
 Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 AM CST Sat Jan 23 2021
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
...DISCUSSION...  Medium-range models are in reasonable agreement
with respect to evolution of large-scale features through Day 6,
after which divergence in solutions increases through the end of
the period.
Even early on in the period, however, differences at smaller scales
-- particularly with an upper short-wave trough ejecting from the
Southwest across the southern tier of the U.S. during the first
half of the period -- complicate assessment of convective potential.
Models generally agree in the maintenance of persistent western U.S.
upper troughing, with the aforementioned short-wave feature
progged to eject eastward, crossing the Four Corners states
and eventually emerging into the central/southern Plains Day 4
(Tuesday).  By Day 5 (Wednesday), as the feature shifts across the
Mid and lower Mississippi Valley and then the Mid South and central
Gulf Coast states, surface cyclogenesis is expected to occur.
With the GFS stronger/sharper with the upper feature, stronger
surface cyclogenesis is depicted, with a deepening low over the
Tennessee Valley area by Wednesday evening, while the weaker ECMWF
solution places a much weaker low over the southern Alabama/southern
Georgia vicinity.  In either case however, it appears likely that
the boundary layer will remain stable, as a strong baroclinic zone
over the northern Gulf of Mexico just ahead of this system will
likely be slow to retreat northward.  Thus, severe weather is not
expected with this system.
As the system moves offshore Day 6 (Thursday), large-scale ridging
will prevail over much of the country, ahead of re-establishment of
western U.S. troughing.  Therefore, severe weather is not expected
Thursday, and then beyond which pattern predictability diminishes
steadily through the end of the period.
 SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 AM CST Sat Jan 23 2021
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...  A progressive upper-air pattern with troughing
over the West and surface high pressure across the central US
will favor below average temperatures and increased potential for
precipitation covering the West Coast and Southeast. Widespread
fire weather conditions are unlikely across the CONUS through the
Day1/Saturday forecast period.
...Southern High Plains...  West/southwesterly downslope winds are
forecast to increase through the afternoon hours near a developing
lee trough. Surface RH values will likely remain above elevated
criteria due to cooler temperatures. However, the gusty winds may
support locally elevated fire weather conditions where short-hour
fuels remain receptive to fire spread.
..Lyons.. 01/23/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
 SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CST Sat Jan 23 2021
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...  Organized fire weather activity is not expected
across the CONUS with a cool and progressive pattern becoming
established through the forecast period. Lingering westerly
winds across the southern High Plains may support a few hours of
locally elevated conditions before much cooler air moves in behind
a cold front. Across the rest of the US, widespread cold air and
precipitation chances should negate any noteworthy fire weather
potential.
..Lyons.. 01/23/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+

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