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LU9DCE > ALERT 22.01.21 17:14z 137 Lines 6812 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2414_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 22 01
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<LU3DVN<LU9DCE
Sent: 210122/1701Z 2414@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM NODE-BBS Flat Earth Society
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149
PM CST Thu Jan 21 2021
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... No severe weather is expected across the U.S. today
and tonight.
...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough will move across the southern
Plains today as zonal mid-level flow remains in place across
much of the southern U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass will be
located from the Texas Coastal Plain eastward across the Gulf Coast
region. Thunderstorm development will be possible within this moist
airmass ahead of the shortwave trough across southern Louisiana,
southern Mississippi and far southern Alabama. Isolated thunderstorms
will also be possible in northern California near an upper-level
trough and in far southern Nevada ahead of the trough. No severe
thunderstorms are expected across the continental United States
Friday and Friday night, mainly due to a lack of instability.
..Broyles/Lyons.. 01/22/2021
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman
OK 0147 AM CST Fri Jan 22 2021
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
CORRECTED
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the
U.S. on Saturday.
...Synopsis... While weakly anticyclonic westerly/west-northwesterly
flow aloft prevails over the eastern half of the U.S. Saturday, an
upper trough will continue moving southeastward across the California
and the Great Basin, toward the Desert Southwest through the period.
At the surface, an evolving cold front is forecast to shift across
Utah and Arizona through the end of the period, while high pressure
prevails east of the Rockies.
While showers will occur over portions of the West, a cool air/steep
lapse rates aloft accompany the upper troughing, instability will
generally be insufficient to support thunderstorms. A few sporadic
flashes may occur across the region, but coverage is expected to
remain too limited to warrant inclusion of a 10% thunder area.
..Goss.. 01/22/2021
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149
AM CST Fri Jan 22 2021
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. on
Sunday.
...Synopsis... Mean long-wave upper troughing is forecast to remain
over the western U.S. this period, as smaller-scale/short-wave
troughs rotate through the broader cyclonic flow field. The first
of these -- initially lying across southern California and northern
Baja, is expected to shift eastward across the Desert Southwest and
southern Rockies, and then reach the southern High Plains region
as a negatively tilted, deamplifying impulse late in the period.
Meanwhile, the second short-wave feature will lie just off the
western Canada coast initially, with an associated/elongated
north-south lobe of vorticity extending from Alaska to just off the
Pacific Northwest coast. With time, the short-wave energy will dig
southward along the West Coast, to a position just inland by the end
of the period -- thus reinforcing the pre-existing long-wave trough.
At the surface, a cold front associated with the initial short-wave
trough ejecting across the Southwest will move across New Mexico and
later Texas. East of this system, a west-to-east baroclinic zone
will become established across the Mid Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys through the end of the period.
With much of the CONUS remaining cool and stable through the period,
deep convective potential will be limited to the southwestern
and south-central portions of the country. Cold air/steep lapse
rates aloft accompanying the upper system will support potential
for sporadic lightning flashes across portions of the Four Corners
states. Later, as downstream warm advection increases across the
south-central U.S., elevated convection -- including scattered
thunderstorms -- will likely evolve during the second half of the
period. Muted instability, however, precludes appreciable risk
for severe storms.
..Goss.. 01/22/2021
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CST Fri Jan 22 2021
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... The potential for sustained fire weather conditions
appears negligible across the U.S. Day1/Friday. An upper-level
shortwave trough is forecast to move south along the West Coast,
supporting shower and thunderstorm activity across northern/central
California and into the western Great Basin. A stalled front over
the southeastern US will keep precipitation chances high, while
surface high pressure to the north of the front will keep winds
light and temperatures cool.
..Lyons.. 01/22/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CST Fri Jan 22 2021
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Fire weather potential again appears limited across
much of the CONUS as an active mid-level jet with a strong shortwave
trough develops over the western US. A lee cyclone generating moist
return flow should keep humidity well above critical values across
the southern Plains, while high pressure and cool temperatures
across the east will prove inhospitable to fire weather conditions.
...Southern High Plains... Gusty downlope winds are expected through
the afternoon along a lee trough and ahead of a cold front. Humidity
values are forecast to remain well above critical thresholds, but
the combination of marginally dry fuels and strong winds may support
locally elevated fire weather conditions before frontal passage.
..Lyons.. 01/22/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
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