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LU9DCE > ALERT    21.01.21 17:13z 170 Lines 8855 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2343_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 21 01
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RES<ON0AR<GB7CIP<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 210121/1701Z 2343@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21

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           (  )  / )( \/ _ \(    \ / __)(  __)  (  _ \(  _ \/ ___) 
           / (_/\) \/ (\__  )) D (( (__  ) _)    ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \ 
           \____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____)  (____/(____/(____/ 

               ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
                   BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
                              LU9DCE@GMX.COM
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+

 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130
PM CST Wed Jan 20 2021
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...  Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. during
the day1 period.
...Discussion...
Upper low off the northern Baja Peninsula will eject east and
deamplify as it approaches west TX by early evening. Currently,
isolated thunderstorms continue ahead of the upper low from the
northern Gulf of California into southwest AZ.  Cold mid-level
temperatures (-20C at 500mb) north of the associated mid-level jet
will result in steep lapse-rate environment across the southern half
of AZ during the first half of the period. This will aid buoyancy
for potential thunderstorm development. Latest thinking is some
thunder threat should linger across this region until the short
wave passes during the mid afternoon.
Downstream, in response to the approaching short wave, LLJ should
strengthen across deep south TX then shift east across the Coastal
Plain of TX. By 22/00z, low-level warm advection will focus across
southeast TX into the lower MS Valley. Forecast soundings across this
region suggest the most buoyant parcels will initially be rooted
between 850-800mb. In the absence of meaningful boundary-layer
moisture returning inland, it appears the primary thunder threat
will be associated with weak, elevated convection.
..Darrow/Moore.. 01/21/2021
 SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248
AM CST Thu Jan 21 2021
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...  No severe weather is expected across the U.S. Friday.
...Discussion...  While fast westerly/west-northwesterly flow
aloft will prevail over the eastern half of the country Friday,
amplification of the upper flow field is progged over the West.
This will occur as an upper low, initially near the northern
California/southern Oregon Coasts, digs southeastward across
California and the Great Basin.  By the end of the period,
large-scale cyclonic flow will encompass essentially the entire
western CONUS.
At the surface, high pressure will prevail east of the Rockies,
as a west-to-east baroclinic zone sags southward into the northern
Gulf of Mexico.  Meanwhile, a cold front is forecast to advance
across California and the Great Basin, and the Desert Southwest
through the period.
As the upper trough -- and associated pocket of cold air/steep lapse
rates aloft spreads across the West, scattered showers are expected.
While a few/sporadic lightning flashes cannot be ruled out, at this
time it appears that coverage will remain low -- thus not warranting
10% thunder area introduction at this time.
..Goss.. 01/21/2021
 SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157
AM CST Thu Jan 21 2021
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...  Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the
U.S. on Saturday.
...Discussion...  Slow progression of the upper pattern is expected
Saturday, as the main feature of interest -- the upper trough over
the West -- continues a slow southeasterly advance.  As this occurs,
downstream flow across the central and into the eastern U.S. will
take on gradual anticyclonic curvature in response.
At the surface, high pressure will remain prevalent east of the
Rockies, though a cold front crossing the Desert Southwest and
southern Rockies is progged to eventually reach the central and
southern Plains.
Similar to Friday, showers will accompany the advance of the upper
system across the West, as cold air/steep lapse rates aloft spread
slowly eastward.  While a few lightning flashes may again occur
over parts of the West, anticipated coverage appears insufficient
to warrant inclusion of a 10% thunder area.
..Goss.. 01/21/2021
 Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2021
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
...DISCUSSION...  Medium-range models are exhibiting reasonable
agreement Day 4 (Sunday) and into Day 5 (Monday), after which
divergence in solutions begins to increase markedly.
On Day 4 (Sunday), the western U.S. trough is progged to begin
ejecting -- and deamplifying as it does -- across the Desert
Southwest and southern Rockies, and finally into the southern Plains,
as it acquires negative tilt through latter stages of the period.
As this occurs, height falls will overspread northern and central
Texas and Oklahoma, atop southerly low-level flow providing theta-e
advection into the region.  While a capping inversion -- remnants
of prior anticyclonic flow/subsidence aloft -- will likely hinder
potential for surface-based convection through much of the day,
isolated to scattered storms may evolve by early evening across
parts of central and northern Texas, and possibly into southeastern
Oklahoma.  While questions persist with this scenario, including
degree of surface-based instability which may be present, shear
profiles will be quite supportive of organized/rotating storms.
Therefore, though details remain sketchy, enough consistency exists
within tonight's model runs, and those from prior days, to warrant
inclusion of a conditional 15% risk area for severe storms.
By Monday, differences begin to become apparent with
evolution/progression of the weakening mid-level system as it shifts
eastward toward/into the Midwest/Ohio Valley.  Likewise, similar
differences are manifest in the strength/advance of the associated
surface low.  This uncertainty, combined with likelihood for weaker
instability with eastward extent, suggests lesser/decreasing severe
potential, and diminishing confidence -- both therefore mitigating
against risk area inclusion at this time.
Beyond Day 5, model differences -- suggestive of an inherent lack
of predictability -- preclude any assessment of convective potential
through the remainder of the medium-range period.
 SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2021
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...  A departing surface low and building surface high
across the northern CONUS will help cooler air filter into the
central U.S.  today and into tomorrow. Weakening pressure-gradient
winds will also help to minimize the fire weather potential for the
Plains. To the south, a plume of mid-level moisture will continue
to advect into the western Gulf states, and given weak ascent
ahead of the Baja California shortwave trough, will bring light
precipitation chances and low fire weather concerns. Low relative
humidity values in the 30-40% range are possible for the southern
half of the FL peninsula (where fuels have been gradually drying),
but weak winds under a surface high will negate any serious concerns.
..Moore.. 01/21/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
 SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2021
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...  The fire weather potential appears fairly low
across the U.S. for Friday. An upper-level shortwave trough
is forecast to propagate along the West Coast and bring light
scattered precipitation to northern California where conditions
have been dry. Similarly, a broad stationary frontal zone across
the Southeast will allow for another day of light precipitation
over a region that has seen little recent rainfall.
One area worth monitoring is portions of the CA/NV border. Southerly
downslope winds off the Sierra Nevada and White mountains may
support periods of elevated fire weather concerns in the lee of
the higher terrain. However, these conditions are expected to be
localized over a region with marginally receptive fuels and possibly
scattered precipitation.
..Moore.. 01/21/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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