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LU9DCE > ALERT 20.01.21 16:12z 227 Lines 12413 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2277_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 20 01
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<PY2BIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 210120/1600Z 2277@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130
PM CST Tue Jan 19 2021
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of southern California and Arizona. Severe thunderstorms are not
expected.
...Synopsis and Discussion... A closed upper low off the coast
of southern CA and the northern Baja Peninsula will gradually
develop northeastward towards the lower CO River Valley through
the period. Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will transport
modest low to mid-level moisture northward into southern CA and AZ
today. Cooling mid-level temperatures and steepening lapse rates
through the day with the approach of the upper low should also
support the development of weak instability. Isolated thunderstorms
may occur across this region, but the lack of stronger instability
should preclude an organized severe threat.
Elsewhere, surface high pressure over the southern Plains and
Southeast will limit the northward extent of meaningful low-level
moisture away from the Gulf Coast. Accordingly, thunderstorm
potential across the central/eastern CONUS appears very low today.
..Gleason/Moore.. 01/20/2021
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231
AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on
Thursday.
...Discussion... While fast westerly/west-northwesterly flow will
prevail across most of the U.S. this period, three features of note
embedded therein will affect portions of the country.
The first will be a clipper-type system moving across the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley region, and later the Northeast. The second will
be a trough -- initially just off the coast of western Canada -- that
will dig south-southeastward with time into the Pacific Northwest.
Finally, a weakening upper low/short-wave trough is progged to move
quickly across the southwestern quarter of the country.
At the surface, a southern Canada low and trailing front -- i.e. the
aforementioned clipper-type system -- will move across the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley/Northeast, and this will be the primary surface
synoptic-scale feature affecting the U.S. Thursday.
While much of the country will remain dry/stable, showers will move
across the southwestern quarter of the country in conjunction with
the fast-moving -- though weakening -- upper system. Embedded
within the shower activity, a few lightning flashes will likely
occur -- particularly during the first half of the period from
southern Arizona to Far West Texas. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are
not expected.
..Goss.. 01/20/2021
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107
AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... No severe weather is expected across the U.S. Friday.
...Discussion... Substantial amplification of the large-scale
pattern is expected Friday, as the short-wave trough digging
southeastward across the northwestern U.S. at the start of
the period strengthens with time. By the end of the period,
broad/high-amplitude cyclonic flow will prevail over the entire
western U.S., with the positively tilted trough axis extending from
Montana to central California.
At the surface, high pressure will prevail east of the Rockies
through the period, while a cold front shifts across the
Southwest/southern Rockies through the period.
With dry/stable conditions prevailing east of the Rockies,
thunderstorms are not expected. In the West, cold air/steep lapse
rates aloft -- associated with the upper trough -- will support
scattered/showery convection. While a lightning flash or two cannot
be ruled out, any coverage would likely be less than 10%.
..Goss.. 01/20/2021
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models are in reasonably good
agreement with respect to the synoptic-scale features across the
U.S. through roughly Day 5 (Sunday). Beyond that, increasing
divergence in solutions suggests insufficient predictability to
make any meaningful assessment of convective potential.
Within the Day 4-5 time frame, the primary feature of interest
will be the large trough situated over the West at the start of
the period. More specifically, a short-wave feature moving through
the broader-scale cyclonic flow -- which is progged to lie near the
central California coast at the start of Day 4 -- will substantially
influence convective potential in the medium range.
Day 4 (Saturday), this short-wave feature is forecast to shift
southeastward, moving into the southwestern U.S./northern Baja during
the overnight hours. As this occurs, an increase in southerly
low-level flow is progged over the southern Plains. This trend
will continue into Day 5, as the upper system shifts eastward and
crosses northern Mexico/Arizona/New Mexico -- but while weakening
steadily as it progresses eastward. In response, rather ill-defined
cyclogenesis is expected to occur over the Texas vicinity. As ascent
increases and low-level moisture advection continues, an increase in
convective potential will occur across the southern Plains and into
the lower Mississippi Valley. However, despite favorable shear
that would otherwise support severe potential, some likelihood
for persistent/weak boundary layer stability beneath low-level
capping is a concern. Still, some severe potential could evolve,
possibly focused along a weak east-to-west warm frontal zone across
east Texas and the Arklatex region later Sunday and into Monday.
However, degree of risk remains questionable at this time, such
that an outlook area will not be introduced at this time.
By Day 6 (Monday), the weakening upper system is progged by the
GFS to essentially dampen out with time, as it crosses Oklahoma and
Kansas, and shifts into Missouri. Meanwhile, the ECMWF maintains
a much more well-defined feature, that moves quickly across the
Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley by evening, and then into/across
the Carolinas and Virginia by the end of the period. Along with
this more pronounced upper feature, a corresponding/well-developed
surface cyclone is also progged to cross the southeastern quarter
of the country Monday, suggestive of at least some severe potential
spreading eastward across this region should the pattern evolve
more similar to the ECMWF solution.
At this time however, given the increasing model differences beyond
Day 5/Sunday, no severe-weather assessment will be attempted through
the remainder of the medium-range period.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...Synopsis... A gradually weakening upper-level low south of the
southern California coast will continue to support strong winds
over southern CA. Across the central U.S., a deepening surface low
is forecast to translate along the U.S./Canadian border and will
usher in dry, windy conditions to portions of the west-central
Plains. Low humidity across the Southeast will also pose some fire
weather concerns for a region that has seen little rainfall over
the past two weeks.
...Southern California... The strong synoptic low that brought
strong winds to the region yesterday will largely remain in place
through today, though a gradual weakening trend is expected. Winds
will likely be strongest during the morning hours (with sustained
winds near 25-35 mph likely with gusts up to 50 mph) before tapering
off slowly during the afternoon. Overnight relative humidity trends
have shown gradual moistening across the region, and this trend
is expected to continue for today. The lower coastal hills will
continue to experience downslope warming and drying effects that
should help mitigate the moistening trend to some degree. Ensemble
and deterministic guidance show reasonable agreement in RH values in
the 20-30% range for the coastal areas (though locally drier pockets
are possible). Despite scattered light precipitation yesterday, fuels
remain very dry, and coupled with the strong winds and marginal RH
values, should support elevated fire weather concerns.
...The west-central Plains... A surface trough associated with the
Canadian low is forecast to sweep east/southeast across the Plains
today. Breezy conditions are expected with sustained winds between
15-20 mph and gusts near 25 mph possible. Dry air in the wake of
the trough should see RH values fall into the 20-30% range over the
region. Higher resolution guidance suggests RH reductions as low
as 15% are possible across the NE/CO/WY region. While spread in the
humidity forecast is noted, drier solutions may be more appropriate
given the potential for downslope effects from the higher terrain
to the west. Additionally, recent fuel reports from local offices
suggest that fine fuels are receptive and supportive of wildfire
spread. Given these considerations, elevated fire weather conditions
appear possible and a corresponding highlight has been introduced
to the NE/CO/WY region.
...Southern Georgia and northern Florida... Recent rainfall
analyses show that the broader Southeast region has received 10-50%
of their normal rainfall over the past two weeks. This has allowed
fine fuels to dry out and ERC values to climb into the 90-95th
percentile range. Dry weather has not improved these conditions
with relative humidity values in the 30-40% range observed
yesterday. Similar values are expected today, and will introduce at
least a low-end fire weather concern. In general, winds will be weak
today underneath a surface high, but some locations may see winds
increase to around 10-15 mph by late afternoon when boundary-layer
mixing is maximized. Wind gusts up to 25 mph are possible and
may allow for pockets of transient elevated conditions. However,
given the localized/transient nature of this threat, no highlights
are introduced.
..Moore.. 01/20/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... The upper-level low off the California coast
will continue to weaken and propagate eastward into the southern
U.S. through Thursday. This will bring widespread light precipitation
chances from portions of the southern High Plains into the Southeast,
where conditions have been very dry. To the north across the Plains,
pressure-gradient winds are generally forecast to remain in the 10-15
mph range over the region. Relative humidity values are forecast
to fall into the 25-35% range across Kansas and Nebraska where
fine fuels have been drying. While some guidance suggests pockets
of windier/drier conditions are possible for KS/NE, confidence
is fairly low in the potential for meeting elevated wind and RH
thresholds for any specific region and for a meaningful duration.
..Moore.. 01/20/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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