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LW3DBH > ALERT 05.04.20 02:19z 65 Lines 3088 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 60244_LW3DBH
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 04 04
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IR1UAW<IW2OHX<UA6ADV<LU4ECL<LW3DBH
Sent: 200405/0208Z @:LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA #:60244 [MORENO] FBB7.00i $:60244_LW
From: LW3DBH@LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA
To : ALERT@WW
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| |\ \ / /___ /| _ \| __ )| | | | BBS
| | \ \ /\ / / |_ \| | | | _ \| |_| | MORENO
| |__\ V V / ___) | |_| | |_) | _ | ARGENTINA
|_____\_/\_/ |____/|____/|____/|_| |_|
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730
PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2020
Valid 050100Z - 051200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across
much of the U.S. tonight.
...01Z Outlook Update... Some eastward progression of a cold
front may continue tonight across parts of the lower Great Lakes
region and lower Ohio Valley, but it appears that the front is in
the process of stalling and weakening across parts of the lower
Mississippi Valley into northwestern Gulf coast region. And models
suggest that there will be increasing erosion of the shallow cold
surface-based air across the southern Plains overnight, as lee
surface troughing begins to deepen across the high Plains.
There may be a lingering corridor of weak instability above/along
the more steeply sloping portion of the cold surface-based air,
across parts of the Edwards Plateau into northwest Texas, southern
and eastern Oklahoma, and northwest Arkansas into the confluence
of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. However, forcing to support
convective development along this corridor appears likely to remain
weak to negligible, resulting in thunderstorm probabilites that
now appear less than 10 percent.
Otherwise, residual pockets of boundary-layer based instability
associated with daytime heating do linger across southern and
eastern portions of the peninsula of Florida, the Colorado and
northern New Mexico Rockies and adjacent high Plains. However,
forcing to support thunderstorm development across these areas also
appears weak to negligible.
Farther west, the mid-level cold core (-24 to -28C at 500 mb)
of one short wave impulse is pivoting inland of the Pacific
coast, across southern Oregon and adjacent portions of northern
California and southern Nevada. However, this has failed to support
appreciable boundary-layer destabilization to this point, and the
potential to contribute to thunderstorm activity as it progresses
north-northeastward through this evening appears minimal.
A much more vigorous short wave trough and embedded closed low will
continue to dig toward the northern California coast overnight,
but with the mid-level cold core forecast to remain offshore,
the risk for thunderstorms late tonight near northern California
coastal areas appears less than 10 percent.
..Kerr.. 04/05/2020
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Virtue is its own punishment.
-- Denniston
Righteous people terrify me ... virtue is its own punishment.
-- Aneurin Bevan
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