| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 03.03.20 14:12z 199 Lines 10518 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 10705_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 03 03
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<I3XTY<GB7COW<GB7YEW<VA7RBP<VE7MOV<LU9DCE
Sent: 200303/1400Z 10705@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.19
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CYGWIN - LU9DCE@GMX.COM
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
WW 38 TORNADO AL 031110Z - 031700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 38 NWS
Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 510 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Parts of central Alabama
* Effective this Tuesday morning from 510 AM until 1100 AM CST.
* Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events
to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A cluster of storms with embedded supercells and bowing
segments will move eastward across central Alabama through the
morning. The threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes
will increase some as it warms and moistens at the surface through
the morning.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 25 statute miles
north and south of a line from 155 miles west of Auburn AL to 15
miles northeast of Auburn AL. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to
60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm
motion vector 27040.
...Thompson
WW 0038 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 38
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..03/03/20
ATTN...WFO...BMX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 38
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-007-011-017-021-027-037-047-051-063-065-081-085-087-091-
101-105-111-113-119-123-031440-
AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BIBB BULLOCK CHAMBERS
CHILTON CLAY COOSA DALLAS
ELMORE GREENE HALE LEE LOWNDES
MACON MARENGO MONTGOMERY PERRY
RANDOLPH RUSSELL SUMTER TALLAPOOSA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0037 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 37
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW MEM TO
20 S MEM TO 35 ESE MEM TO 35 SSW MKL TO 40 ESE MKL TO 60 E MKL.
..JEWELL..03/03/20
ATTN...WFO...MEG...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 37
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MSC003-009-093-137-139-031140-
MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON MARSHALL TATE
TIPPAH
TNC039-069-071-109-031140-
TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DECATUR HARDEMAN HARDIN MCNAIRY
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
MD 0142 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 38... FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO
WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0142 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2020
Areas affected...central Alabama into west-central Georgia
Concerning...Tornado Watch 38...
Valid 031325Z - 031530Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 38 continues.
SUMMARY...A cluster of storms may continue to pose a tornado or
damaging wind threat over the next several hours from central
Alabama into west-central Georgia.
DISCUSSION...A slow-developing, but long-lived cluster of storms
continues to sporadically pose a tornado risk over central Alabama
this morning. These storms formed in association with warm/moist
advection, and persist with the aid of substantial deep-layer
wind shear and sufficient instability. 12Z soundings from the
region suggest MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg. Objective analysis
further indicates that instability decreases south of the area as
temperatures aloft are warmer. However, pockets of heating may
eventually develop later this morning and aid destabilization.
Effective SRH over 200 m2/s2 is also forecast to remain for much
of the day. As such, a brief tornado or damaging wind gusts remain
possible within this east-west corridor.
..Jewell.. 03/03/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...
LAT...LON 32988732 33278604 33518481 33168408 32518418 32038484
31968574 32118646 32398694 32648727 32848743 32988732
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653
AM CST Tue Mar 03 2020
Valid 031300Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM CENTRAL
AL TO CENTRAL GA...AND TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL TX...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with damaging winds and a couple of
tornadoes will be possible today across parts of Alabama/Georgia,
as well as the corridors from West Virginia to New Jersey and
into North Carolina. Additional severe storms with large hail and
damaging winds are expected tonight, mainly across central Texas.
...Central AL to central GA today... Though the more obvious
shortwave trough in the northern stream will pass north of this area
today, an organized cluster of storms is moving into west central
AL this morning in association with a 40-45 kt segment of the
low-level jet and enhanced warm advection. This cluster could pose
an increasing threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes
from central AL into central GA today, as the low levels destabilize
with surface heating in cloud breaks and some continued low-level
moistening with boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 60s.
Embedded bowing segments and supercells will be supported by modest
buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg), effective bulk shear in excess
of 50 kt, and locally enhanced SRH with the low-level jet segment.
...NC area this afternoon/evening... The remnant outflow and
southern fringe of a weakening MCV over WV/western VA this morning
will interact with the returning moisture/warm front across central
NC this afternoon. Wind profiles will be supportive of organized
severe storms, but buoyancy will likely remain marginal. As such,
will expand 5% wind threat into NC for a broken band of storms
along the boundary this afternoon/evening.
...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening...
A northern stream shortwave trough will translate from the MS
Valley to the OH Valley today, and reach the Mid-Atlantic and
New England tonight. An associated surface cyclone will deepen
from the lower Great Lakes into New England, while a trailing cold
front moves eastward off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight.
In the wake of weakening morning convection and a remnant MCV near
southern WV, a few cloud breaks and some low-level warming/moistening
will contribute to weak buoyancy in advance of the cold front from
WV into parts of PA/VA this afternoon/evening. Broken bands of
storms will be possible this afternoon along the front, and the
convection will spread east-northeastward toward NJ by late evening.
Assuming sufficient near-surface destabilization, wind profiles
will favor organized bowing segments and supercells with some threat
for isolated damaging gusts and a tornado or two.
...Edwards Plateau into central TX tonight... A deep, closed
midlevel low over Sonora will move eastward to the TX Big Bend by
early Wednesday morning. Surface cyclogenesis is expected across
central TX in advance of the midlevel trough, along a stalled front.
The warm sector across south TX is likely to remain capped today,
but increasing forcing for ascent will begin to interact with the
northwest edge of the unstable warm sector this evening near DRT,
and then storms will increase in coverage/intensity overnight
near the path of the surface cyclone and immediately north of the
surface front. A mixed storm mode of cells and clusters is expected,
in an environment supportive of supercells with MUCAPE greater than
or equal to 1000 J/kg and effective bulk shear greater than 50 kt.
Large hail will be the main threat with elevated storms well north
of the front, while damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado will be
possible with storms along the surface front/north edge of surface
warm sector.
...East TX/LA/southern MS early Wednesday morning... A gradual
increase in low-level flow/warm advection is expected overnight
along the stalled front from TX to LA/southern MS. Slightly elevated
thunderstorm development will become more probable after about 09z,
with the stronger storms capable of producing isolated large hail
just before the end of the period.
..Thompson/Jewell.. 03/03/2020
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2020
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that
a mature mid-latitude cyclone will progress eastward throughout the
day D4/Friday, moving off the Northeast coast by D4/Friday evening.
Upper ridging is expected to move across the central and eastern
CONUS on D5/Saturday, ahead of a shortwave trough expected to move
into the Plains on D6/Sunday or D7/Monday. Some modest moisture
return is anticipated ahead of this shortwave trough and its
attendant surface low and cold front. However, this moisture
return is currently forecast to be insufficient for widespread
severe thunderstorms.
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Don't lose Your head To gain a minute You need your head Your brains are in it.
-- Burma Shave
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Organizacion Radio Packet Argentina https://vk.com/ax25packet
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
