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LU9DCE > ALERT 19.01.20 07:03z 88 Lines 4413 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 19 01
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR1UAW<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<N7HPX<
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Sent: 200119/0700Z 7578@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119
PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions
of northern and central Florida today and into the early evening. The
risk for severe weather with this activity is minimal.
...Synopsis... A broad upper-level trough across the eastern US
will amplify during the forecast period. A subtle shortwave impulse
within the base of this larger trough will move across the northern
Gulf and impact portions of northern Florida by afternoon. At
the surface, a cold front will continue to surge southeastward,
reaching south Florida by early Monday morning.
Weak mid-level height falls and weak convergence along the cold
front may lead isolated thunderstorm activity in portions of the
eastern Florida Panhandle and northern Florida during the day.
Though low- to mid-60s F dewpoints will be in place, cloud cover
is likely to limit boundary-layer heating and keep surface-based
buoyancy no more than 200-300 J/kg MLCAPE. Though a convective
gust or two will be possible, weak and veered low-level flow should
minimize potential for storm organization.
..Wendt.. 01/19/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247
AM CST Sun Jan 19 2020
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Showers and a thunderstorm or two may affect south
Florida and the Keys, as well as the Pacific Northwest Coastal areas.
...Discussion... As complex/large-scale troughing continues to
evolve/shift gradually eastward across the eastern half of the
country, a cold front -- already well offshore over the western
Atlantic -- will continue shifting southward and eventually out of
south Florida and the Keys. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm
or two -- mainly during the day on Monday -- will be possible,
with any onshore lightning risk diminishing with time as the front
vacates southward.
Farther west, cold high pressure at the surface will prevail through
the period east of the Rockies, as upper ridging advances eastward.
Meanwhile, a northeastern Pacific upper low is expected to continue
eastward and begin nearing the coast early Tuesday morning.
As steeper lapse rates associated with the system progress toward
coastal areas, showers -- and possibly occasional/embedded lightning
-- will likely evolve across the Pacific Northwest Coast, and the
Olympics/Cascades.
Elsewhere, deep moist convection is not expected.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Goss.. 01/19/2020
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2020
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A cold front will continue to push offshore from the
southeastern and eastern US. An arctic airmass will move southward
into the northern and central Plains by Monday morning. This stout
surface high pressure will produce dry, offshore flow across southern
California. While meteorological conditions would normally favor
fire spread, fuel conditions are not similarly favorable for fire
weather concerns. Elsewhere across the CONUS, cool/cold temperatures
and recent precipitation will also suppress wildfire potential.
..Wendt.. 01/19/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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I said, no, but I have the new DEVO album. Cops have no sense of humor."
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