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LU9DCE > ALERT 18.01.20 07:01z 94 Lines 4786 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7544_LU9DCE
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 18 01
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 200118/0700Z 7544@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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MD 0062 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR NORTHEASTERN
IL...CENTRAL/NORTHERN IN...WESTERN OH
Mesoscale Discussion 0062 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2020
Areas affected...Northeastern IL...Central/Northern IN...Western OH
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 180601Z - 181000Z
SUMMARY...Greatest freezing rain potential will extend from
northeastern Illinois into western Ohio. Freezing rain rates could
exceed 0.05"/hr.
DISCUSSION...Well-defined warm conveyor has evolved from
MO-IL/IN-Lower MI. Strong isentropic ascent ahead of a pronounced
short-wave trough will continue through the night and a broad
corridor of precipitation should gradually shift from west to
east across the Mid-MS/OH Valley region. Strong warm advection has
gradually raised surface temperatures above freezing across much
of MO into central IL and substantial boundary-layer warming is
expected to change freezing rain to rain by 12z across much of IN.
Forecast soundings support this with strong warming at 850mb as
50-60kt LLJ strengthens across the OH Valley. Freezing rain threat
should linger across northeast IN into western OH through 12z.
..Darrow.. 01/18/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...
LAT...LON 41878783 41718654 41428588 40648359 39718382 39708629
40408767 41878783
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148
PM CST Fri Jan 17 2020
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from south
Texas into the central Gulf Coast states today. The risk for severe
weather is low.
...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress eastward through the
mid- and upper-Mississippi Valley regions into the Great Lakes region
today. This feature is expected to lose amplitude with time. At the
surface, a strong cyclone will lift into the upper Midwest/Lower
Great Lakes during the afternoon and evening. An attendant cold
front will move southeastward, reaching into the northern/central
Gulf of Mexico by the end of the period. A warm-frontal boundary
will be positioned within southern Alabama/Mississippi into the
western Florida Panhandle.
With the strongest upper-level forcing for ascent remaining to the
north, only isolated thunderstorm development along/near the frontal
boundaries is expected. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the low- to
mid-60s F within the warm sector will support only modest buoyancy.
With the exception of areas near the warm front, deep-layer and
low-level shear will be relatively weak. A conditional threat for
marginal supercell structures during the afternoon/early evening may
develop in portions of the western Florida Panhandle that receive
greater surface heating. Should that occur, a brief tornado would
be possible with storms interacting with the warm front. However,
given the uncertainties regarding surface-based destabilization and
narrow window of potential, no severe probabilities will be added
at this time.
..Wendt.. 01/18/2020
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2020
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... The upper-level trough now over the central/northern
Plains will continue its eastward progression today. The associated
surface cyclone will move out of the mid-Mississippi Valley and into
the lower Great Lakes by early Sunday morning. High pressure will
build into the western two-thirds of the CONUS in the wake of a cold
front passing through the southern Plains and Gulf Coast states.
Immediately behind the front, breezy north winds are expected from
Oklahoma into central Texas. With surface conditions remaining
relatively moist and recent precipitation wetting fuels, fire
weather concerns are not expected to develop.
..Wendt.. 01/18/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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"Why was I born with such contemporaries?"
-- Oscar Wilde
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