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LU9DCE > ALERT 16.01.20 07:04z 91 Lines 4601 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7451_LU9DCE
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 16 01
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<LU4ECL<LU3DVN<PY2BIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 200116/0700Z 7451@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154
PM CST Wed Jan 15 2020
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected
today across much of Texas into a part of the lower Mississippi
Valley. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible along the West
Coast.
...Synopsis...
A northern-stream upper trough will move onto the West Coast today
accompanied by a cold front, while a lower-amplitude southern-stream
shortwave trough reaches the southwest U.S. tonight. Farther east, a
cold front will extend from a surface low over southern New England
through the Gulf Coast states and central TX at the start of the
period. This boundary will continue south and likely extend from
the central FL Peninsula westward through the northern Gulf and
into south TX by the end of the period.
...Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley...
Southwesterly winds aloft will persist over the southern Plains
downstream from the western U.S. troughs. Weak impulses embedded
within this regime and strengthening of a southerly low-level
jet will contribute to a broad zone of isentropic ascent, theta-e
advection and weak instability in post frontal zone. Numerous showers
with embedded widely scattered thunderstorms are likely. Most of the
storms will be elevated in post-frontal region, and while effective
shear around 40 kt could support some weak mid-level updraft rotation
with any cellular storms, the thermodynamic environment is expected
to remain too marginal for a hail threat.
...West Coast...
A cold front will move onto Pacific Northwest coastal area during
the early morning and northern CA around mid day accompanied
by a secondary shortwave trough. Mid-level lapse rates will
steepen within the post-frontal region as the thermal trough moves
inland, and pockets of diabatic heating will contribute to further
destabilization with MLCAPE from 200-300 J/kg possible. Isolated
thunderstorms appear likely in this regime, and given steep lapse
rates with cold temperatures aloft, some small hail could accompany
some of the storms.
..Dial/Nauslar.. 01/16/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243
AM CST Thu Jan 16 2020
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts
of the southern Plains and Arklatex Friday into Friday night. No
severe threat is expected across the continental United States.
...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move quickly eastward
from the Intermountain West to the Great Plains on Friday. Ahead
of the system, a broad low-level jet will develop in the Great
Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to quickly advance
southeastward into the southern Plains with substantial moisture
return ahead of the front confined to the southeastern third
of Texas. Weak instability is forecast ahead of the front from
southwest Texas northeastward across the Texas Hill Country where
isolated thunderstorm development will be possible Friday afternoon.
The potential for thunderstorm development should increase Friday
evening as large-scale ascent moves in from the west associated
with the upper-level trough. Thunderstorm development will also be
possible in the Arklatex Friday night just ahead of the upper-level
trough. Instability is expected to be too weak for a severe threat
Friday and Friday night.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Broyles.. 01/16/2020
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Pig, n.:
An animal (Porcus omnivorous) closely allied to the human race
by the splendor and vivacity of its appetite, which, however, is inferior
in scope, for it balks at pig.
-- Ambrose Bierce, "The Devil's Dictionary"
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