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LU9DCE > ALERT 09.01.20 07:02z 99 Lines 5131 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6869_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 09 01
Path: HB9ON<IK7NXU<IK6IHL<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 200109/0701Z 6869@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LINUX - LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139
PM CST Wed Jan 08 2020
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Thursday and
Thursday night.
...Discussion...
Strong short-wave trough off the Pacific coast will dig southeast
toward the lower CO River Valley by 10/00z, then into northern Mexico
by the end of the period. Significant height falls will spread across
the southwestern US into far west TX by sunrise Friday. In response
to this approaching short wave, sustained LLJ across the southern
Plains will allow much higher-PW air mass to advance north across
TX into southern OK where lower 60s surface dew points should be
noted by the end of the period.
During the first half of the period, weak short-wave ridging should
dominate OK into MO. As a result, low-level warm advection will be
the primary forcing mechanism for potential convective development.
Latest thinking is shallow convection will gradually deepen during
the late afternoon/evening as elevated buoyancy increases across
this region through moisture advection. Forecast soundings suggest
adequate instability for elevated thunderstorms along a corridor
from southeast OK into IN. At this time it appears updrafts will
be too weak to warrant any meaningful threat for severe hail.
Late in the period, large-scale forcing will begin to affect
western plume of higher PW across northwest TX into southwestern
OK. There is some concern that convection may develop by the end
of the period across this region; however, greater probabilities
for deep convection will be during the day2 period.
Isolated thunderstorms may also develop across southeast AZ as mid
levels cool and lapse rates steepen within the digging trough.
..Darrow/Karstens.. 01/09/2020
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2020
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis... A broad deep-layer trough over the western CONUS
will amplify throughout the day as a jet streak entering the
West Coast moves into portions of the Southwest. Meanwhile, a
broad region of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow (50-60 kt)
will remain present over the southern High Plains. At the surface,
lee cyclogenesis will occur across portions of eastern New Mexico
and the TX/OK Panhandles throughout the day.
...Southern High Plains... A developing surface pressure gradient
combined with diurnal heating/mixing will allow a region of sustained
southwesterly winds of 10-20 mph combined with RH values into the
teens to develop this afternoon across portions of eastern New
Mexico and West Texas amidst marginally receptive fuels. A small
expansion of the elevated area was made into West Texas based on
airmass placement indicated in the latest high-resolution guidance.
..Karstens.. 01/09/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2020
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... The highly amplified deep-layer trough over portions
of the Southwest and Intermountain West will quickly progress east
through the Southern Plains and enter the Southeast by Saturday
morning, with another mid-level trough entering the Pacific
Northwest in its wake. Enhanced mid-level flow will accompany these
features throughout this progression. At the surface, an area of
low pressure will traverse the Southern Plains, with an attendant
cold front. Although enhanced winds will accompany this feature,
the temperature/RH combo associated with the post-frontal airmass
is expected to result in minimal fire-weather concerns.
..Karstens.. 01/09/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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"Section 2.4.3.5 AWNS (Acceptor Wait for New Cycle State).
In AWNS the AH function indicates that it has received a
multiline message byte.
In AWNS the RFD message must be sent false and the DAC message
must be sent passive true.
The AH function must exit the AWNS and enter: (1) The ANRS if DAV
is false (2) The AIDS if the ATN message is false and neither:
(a) The LADS is active (b) Nor LACS is active"
-- from the IEEE Standard Digital Interface for
Programmable Instrumentation
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