| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 08.01.20 07:30z 89 Lines 4743 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6830_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 08 01
Path: HB9ON<IK7NXU<IK6IHL<IZ3LSV<IR1UAW<IQ5KG<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 200108/0700Z 6830@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LINUX - LU9DCE@GMX.COM
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157
PM CST Tue Jan 07 2020
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes may occur late in the period
near the Oregon/northern California coasts.
...Discussion... As an upper trough over the eastern U.S. at the
start of the period shifts across New England and into the Canadian
Maritimes, upstream ridging will amplify over the central U.S.
This ridge amplification will be aided by large-scale troughing
evolving over the West. The western troughing will be comprised
initially of a short-wave feature, that will cross the Great
Basin/Intermountain West through the first half of the period.
Meanwhile, a second trough -- initially over the Gulf of Alaska
-- will dig rapidly south-southeastward, toward the Pacific
Northwest/northern California coasts. Eventually, cyclonic flow
surrounding these two western features will merge into one large,
expanding area of cyclonic flow -- which will grow to encompass
the entire western half of the CONUS by the end of period.
Little risk for convection is evident east of the Rockies through
the period, as high pressure prevails. In the West, a lack of
instability accompanying the initial short-wave trough crossing the
Intermountain West precludes any appreciable lightning risk. Late in
the period, a few strikes may occur near the California/Oregon
coastal region, as the second/digging trough nears. Elsewhere,
thunderstorms are not expected through the period.
..Goss/Elliott.. 01/08/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210
AM CST Wed Jan 08 2020
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Ozark
Plateau vicinity into central and southern Illinois and Indiana
from late Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning. Severe
storms are not expected.
...Synopsis...
An amplified upper pattern will exist on Thursday with a broad
trough across the western two-thirds of the CONUS and an upper
ridge east of the MS River. A shortwave impulse embedded in the
larger-scale trough over the northern Plains vicinity early in the
period will shift northeast across the Upper Great Lakes by 00z.
This will shift the upper ridge axis eastward offshore the U.S.
Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, a second, more intense shortwave located
over northern CA at the beginning of the period will dive southward
along the Pacific coast through the day. This will sharpen the
western trough as it continues to pivot eastward, becoming oriented
from the Four Corners vicinity to northern Mexico by Friday morning.
As this occurs, an increasing surface pressure gradient will
develop between a strong high pressure system over the eastern
states/western Atlantic and a developing lee low over the southern
High Plains. The result will be strong Gulf moisture return on
increasing south/southeasterly flow across eastern TX/OK toward the
lower MS Valley, with more modest boundary layer moisture extending
as far north as the mid-MS/lower OH Valleys by Friday morning.
Increasing moisture beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates will
result in pockets of weak elevated instability. However, forcing for
ascent will be rather weak, especially across eastern OK/TX into AR.
Additionally, capping due to warm midlevel temperatures will further
limit deep convection. Nevertheless, isolated thunderstorms will
be possible late Thursday afternoon through the end of the period
in this warm advection/isentropic ascent regime from far northeast
TX/eastern OK through the Ozark Plateau and into southern/central
IL/IN.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Leitman.. 01/08/2020
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Crash programs fail because they are based on the theory that, with nine
women pregnant, you can get a baby a month.
-- Wernher von Braun
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Organizacion Radio Packet Argentina https://vk.com/ax25packet
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
