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LU9DCE > ALERT 08.01.20 07:30z 78 Lines 3823 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6789_LU9DCE
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 07 01
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Sent: 200107/0701Z 6789@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124
PM CST Mon Jan 06 2020
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may occur along the coast of
the Pacific Northwest and northern California through Tuesday
evening. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Discussion... As an eastern upper trough -- reinforced with
time by a second trough shifting southeastward out of Canada and
across the Great Lakes -- continues steady eastward progression,
a second trough is forecast to move inland from the eastern Pacific
and across the West Coast states through the period.
Cold surface high pressure will prevail across much of the U.S., in
the wake of the departing eastern upper trough and the approaching
western one. As such, deep moist convective potential will remain
quite low across much of the country. One exception will be across
the Pacific Northwest coastal ranges, as the aforementioned upper
trough moves onshore. With cold air aloft yielding steep lapse
rates, a few lightning strikes may accompany a band of convection
as it moves onshore during the afternoon, in conjunction with
the surface trough, and then in the showery upslope precipitation
expected once the trough passes.
..Goss/Cook.. 01/07/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142
PM CST Mon Jan 06 2020
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.
...Synopsis...
An amplified mid/upper pattern will emerge over the CONUS on
Wednesday as a larger-scale mid/upper trough intensifies over the
western half of the country, and an upper ridge builds over the
eastern U.S. At the surface, strong high pressure will persist east
of the MS River, maintaining dry and stable conditions.
Across the West, a shortwave trough over the northern Rockies/western
Great Basin will shift east across the Canadian Prairies and
northern Plains, while another, more intense shortwave trough
digs southward along the Pacific Coast. The surface reflection of
these two mid/upper level features will be a low tracking across
the northern/central Plains, with a trough extending southwestward
into the southern High Plains by Thursday morning. The intensifying
surface pressure gradient between the Plains low and the strong
eastern U.S. high will result in strengthening south/southeasterly
low-level flow across the western Gulf and southern Plains. Thus
will begin a period of moist return flow across TX late Day 2
into Day 3/Thu. A few showers are possible across eastern TX early
Thursday morning in this developing warm advection regime, but both
instability and deeper forcing for ascent will remain negligible,
precluding thunderstorm development.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Leitman.. 01/07/2020
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The older I grow the more I distrust the familiar doctrine that age brings
wisdom.
-- H. L. Mencken
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