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LU9DCE > ALERT 05.01.20 07:03z 142 Lines 7496 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6689_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 05 01
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR1UAW<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<N7HPX<
LU9DCE
Sent: 200105/0701Z 6689@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135
PM CST Sat Jan 04 2020
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous
United States on Sunday.
...Discussion...
Short-wave trough off the northern CA coast will move inland early
in the period as an 80kt 500mb speed max translates across northern
CA/NV into CO by 06/00z. North of this jet, much cooler profiles
will result in steep lapse rates which should contribute to some
buoyancy from the northern Great Basin into southern WY. While weak
convection may be noted along this corridor, forecast soundings
suggest updrafts will be too shallow/weak for any appreciable threat
of lightning, especially given the cold profiles.
..Darrow.. 01/05/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137
PM CST Sat Jan 04 2020
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
...Synopsis... Zonal westerly upper level flow will overspread
much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Monday morning. However,
the pattern will become more amplified as a shortwave trough over
the Rockies deepens and shifts eastward across the Plains, becoming
oriented from the upper Great Lakes to the Southeast by Tuesday
morning. As this occurs, a weak surface low is forecast to spread
east/northeast from the southern Plains to the central Appalachians.
Increasing southerly low level flow will allow for meager moisture
return from eastern TX through the lower MS Valley. However, surface
dewpoints are only expected to climb into the mid 40s to mid 50s F,
as deeper Gulf moisture remains shunted well to the south of the US
mainland. Isolated showers may develop Monday night into Tuesday
morning across parts of the TN Valley to the central Appalachians
as forcing increases with the eastward ejection of the upper
trough, but instability will be negligible given scant moisture.
Additionally, warm temperatures aloft will lead to convection too
shallow to support lightning production. As such, thunderstorms
are not expected on Monday.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Leitman.. 01/05/2020
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256
AM CST Sun Jan 05 2020
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible along the Pacific
Northwest coast through Tuesday evening.
...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the northern Plains on
Tuesday morning will deepen as it tracks southeast, reinforcing
large-scale mid/upper troughing over the eastern U.S. The associated
surface low over the central Appalachians Tuesday morning will move
offshore the mid-Atlantic coast by afternoon and a trailing cold
front pushes across much of the southeastern states. While a few
showers are possible across the mid-Atlantic area, scant boundary
layer moisture and little instability will preclude thunderstorm
development.
Across the western U.S., an amplified mid/upper ridge will shift
east toward the Plains as another trough moves inland by the end
of the period. Moist onshore flow and steepening midlevel lapse
rates with the approaching upper trough should be sufficient for a
few lightning flashes along the Pacific Northwest coast from WA/OR
into far northern CA, though severe convection is not expected.
..Leitman.. 01/05/2020
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2020
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Strong high pressure initially centered over northern
California will develop eastward toward the western Great Basin
throughout the forecast period. This will result in areas of gusty
north to northeast surface winds across typical terrain-favored
areas of southern California, with 20-30 mph winds becoming common
and stronger gusts developing overnight. Latest guidance indicates
that fuels are not susceptible to fire spread on a widespread basis,
which precludes any highlights at this time.
..Cook.. 01/05/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2020
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...Synopsis... A couple of areas of elevated fire weather conditions
are expected to develop Monday. A very strong surface high will
shift eastward across the Great Basin during the forecast period.
Meanwhile, a weak surface trough will exist across coastal
areas of California. The resultant pressure gradient will foster
strong offshore flow across coastal ranges of southern California.
Farther east, the gradient between the aforementioned high and a
surface trough extending from Minnesota southward through northern
Kansas will encourage areas of enhanced northerly surface flow amid
dry low-levels.
...Portions of southern California... Areas of strong (20-35
mph) northeasterly surface winds will exist from the beginning
of the forecast period - particularly in terrain-favored areas of
Ventura and Los Angeles Counties and the San Diego County Mountains.
Insolation/surface heating within a dry low-level airmass will allow
for RH values to fall below critical thresholds for several hours
during the afternoon. The main limiting factor for a larger-scale
fire-weather threat will be fuel states, which remain broadly
unsupportive of fire spread given recent rainfall across the region.
Given the state of fuels, only locally elevated fire weather is
expected where dry fuels exist.
...Southwestern Kansas southward through the Texas Panhandle...
The aforementioned steepening of the surface pressure gradient across
these areas will combine with vertical mixing of very strong flow
aloft to foster areas of 20-25 mph northwesterly surface flow from
mid-day through the evening. As temperatures rise into the 50s F,
RH values will flirt near critical thresholds (15-25%) during the
afternoon. Although fuels guidance indicates relatively low ERCs,
finer (1-hour) fuels should be cured and supportive of fire spread
in a few areas given the lack of rainfall across the region over the
past several days. Thus, locally elevated fire weather conditions
are expected for several hours during peak-heating, and an elevated
fire weather delineation has been drawn to address the threat.
..Cook.. 01/05/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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