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LU9DCE > ALERT    12.07.18 23:03l 319 Lines 18360 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 10508_LU9DCE
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 12 07 2018
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<IW8PGT<CX2SA<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 180712/2000Z 10508@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.16


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 MD 1043 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR
 WESTERN/NORTHERN NEBRASKA...FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND SOUTHERN
 SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1043 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Thu Jul 12 2018
Areas affected...Western/Northern Nebraska...Far Northeast
Colorado...and Southern South Dakota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 121947Z - 122215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are developing across portions of western Nebraska
and should increase in coverage to the east/north throughout the
afternoon/evening. Damaging winds are possible.
DISCUSSION...An increasingly agitated cumulus field is present
across western Nebraska and some cumulus clouds have formed farther
to the east along a surface front into northern Nebraska. Surface
temperatures are reaching the 90s and dewpoints are in the mid 60s
to mid 70s across the area. Continued destabilization will increase
buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-3000+ J/kg) during the afternoon/evening.
Shear is mostly weak across the area of interest, although some
marginal shear does exist across northwest Nebraska into South
Dakota.  Scattered multicellular convection is expected to develop
across the area through the afternoon, initially focusing along
the boundary running from southeast South Dakota through northeast
Colorado, and will likely organize upscale into a QLCS this evening.
Given the steep low-level lapse rates (8.5+ C/km) and DCAPE of 1000+
J/kg, strong wind gusts are likely and severe wind is possible. The
wind threat may increase if a QLCS does form later this evening.
..Nauslar/Thompson.. 07/12/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...  CYS...
LAT...LON   39960214 40350241 40760309 41720326 42920305 43020230
43339996 43549910 43759743 43799676 43199634 42619626 42269695
42009816 41380039 40530046 39960214
 MD 1042 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH
 CAROLINA AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1042 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 PM CDT Thu Jul 12 2018
Areas affected...South Carolina and portions of eastern Georgia
and southern North Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 121742Z - 122015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are developing across central South Carolina as
convective temperatures are being reached. Strong wind gusts are
likely and severe wind is possible.
DISCUSSION...Storms are expected to continue developing as convective
temperatures are breached across the Carolinas and portions of
northern/eastern Georgia. Storm development should also be focused
along a surface boundary stretching westward from eastern North
Carolina through northern Georgia. Storms are developing in a
buoyant environment characterized with 1500-2000+ J/kg of MLCAPE,
but there is mostly weak shear/flow aloft, which should limit upscale
organization. DCAPE of 800-1200 J/kg with a steep low-level lapse
rates (8.5+ C/km) and a relatively dry sub-cloud layer (25-30+
C surface dewpoint depressions) indicate the potential for strong
wind gusts, and severe wind is possible. Storms should continue to
develop this afternoon and slowly move south/east into the evening.
A watch is unlikely given the isolated nature of the severe wind
threat and anticipated lack of organized severe convection.
..Nauslar/Thompson.. 07/12/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...
LAT...LON   34928318 35008219 35088070 34837917 34407863 33707933
33088016 32538112 32868167 33818288 34928318
 SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130
AM CDT Thu Jul 12 2018
Valid 121630Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM NORTHERN NE TO SOUTHERN MN AND CENTRAL WI...
...SUMMARY...  Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds will be
possible this afternoon and evening in a corridor from the Upper
Midwest to the north-central Plains.
...NE to southern MN and central WI through tonight...  A midlevel
high has developed eastward to the middle MS and lower OH Valley
region, with a downstream trough from the Mid-Atlantic into New
England, and a weak upstream trough over the northern Rockies.
The most pronounced shortwave trough within the northern stream is
now moving eastward from MB to western ON.  An associated cold front
extends southward into the upper MS Valley, where the front has been
augmented by overnight and ongoing convection.  The effective front
now stretches from a lee cyclone in northeastern CO across central
NE and southwestern MN.  Farther east, the progress of a warm front
has been impeded by outflow with ongoing convection across WI.
Surface heating south of the boundaries and boundary-layer dewpoints
in the upper 60s to mid 70s will drive MLCAPE in the 2000-4000
J/kg range this afternoon from northern NE across southern MN into
western WI.  Subtle midlevel vorticity maxima over northeastern
CO and northwestern SD will interact with the effective front
this afternoon into tonight and support thunderstorm development,
and storm coverage should increase into tonight as low-level warm
advection increases in conjunction with a weak (25-30 kt) low-level
jet.  Vertical shear will be relatively weak, which will tend to
favor multicell clusters along the boundary.  Steepening low-level
lapse rates, DCAPE at or above 1250 J/kg, and precipitation loading
will favor occasional damaging gusts with downbursts, while buoyancy
will be sufficiently large for a marginally severe hail threat this
afternoon into early tonight.
...Northeastern WY to northeastern CO this afternoon/evening...
Isolated strong/severe storm development is expected in the
developing post-frontal regime across northeastern WY this afternoon,
where surface heating and destabilization will be stronger near the
east slopes of the Big Horns.  Here, buoyancy and vertical shear will
be marginally sufficient for supercells, with a low-end hail/wind
threat.  Farther south, high-based thunderstorm development is
expected along the lee trough into northeastern CO border, where
isolated strong outflow gusts will be possible.
...SC and southern NC this afternoon/evening...  Strong surface
heating is underway to the south of a weak cold front moving
southward across the Carolinas.  A weak midlevel trough will move
southeastward over NC this afternoon and aid weak ascent along the
front, which will support thunderstorm development this afternoon.
Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg) and substantial downdraft
potential (DCAPE greater than 1000 J/kg) will support a threat
for isolated strong/damaging gusts with multicell storms this
afternoon/evening.
..Thompson/Nauslar.. 07/12/2018
 SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254
PM CDT Thu Jul 12 2018
Valid 122000Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...  Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds will be
possible this afternoon and evening in a corridor from the Upper
Midwest to the north-central Plains.
...Discussion...  The current forecast areas and reasoning remain
reflective of the evolving convective scenario, and thus no major
changes to the outlook appear to be required.  Minor adjustments
to the MRGL risk area is being made over the southwestern Nebraska
area and vicinity, where TCU/CB development is indicated at present.
Otherwise, the primary corridor of severe risk the remainder of the
period remains evident in the vicinity of the cool front -- from
Nebraska to the Upper Great Lakes region this afternoon and evening.
..Goss.. 07/12/2018
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Thu Jul 12 2018/
...NE to southern MN and central WI through tonight...  A midlevel
high has developed eastward to the middle MS and lower OH Valley
region, with a downstream trough from the Mid-Atlantic into New
England, and a weak upstream trough over the northern Rockies.
The most pronounced shortwave trough within the northern stream is
now moving eastward from MB to western ON.  An associated cold front
extends southward into the upper MS Valley, where the front has been
augmented by overnight and ongoing convection.  The effective front
now stretches from a lee cyclone in northeastern CO across central
NE and southwestern MN.  Farther east, the progress of a warm front
has been impeded by outflow with ongoing convection across WI.
Surface heating south of the boundaries and boundary-layer dewpoints
in the upper 60s to mid 70s will drive MLCAPE in the 2000-4000
J/kg range this afternoon from northern NE across southern MN into
western WI.  Subtle midlevel vorticity maxima over northeastern
CO and northwestern SD will interact with the effective front
this afternoon into tonight and support thunderstorm development,
and storm coverage should increase into tonight as low-level warm
advection increases in conjunction with a weak (25-30 kt) low-level
jet.  Vertical shear will be relatively weak, which will tend to
favor multicell clusters along the boundary.  Steepening low-level
lapse rates, DCAPE at or above 1250 J/kg, and precipitation loading
will favor occasional damaging gusts with downbursts, while buoyancy
will be sufficiently large for a marginally severe hail threat this
afternoon into early tonight.
...Northeastern WY to northeastern CO this afternoon/evening...
Isolated strong/severe storm development is expected in the
developing post-frontal regime across northeastern WY this afternoon,
where surface heating and destabilization will be stronger near the
east slopes of the Big Horns.  Here, buoyancy and vertical shear will
be marginally sufficient for supercells, with a low-end hail/wind
threat.  Farther south, high-based thunderstorm development is
expected along the lee trough into northeastern CO border, where
isolated strong outflow gusts will be possible.
...SC and southern NC this afternoon/evening...  Strong surface
heating is underway to the south of a weak cold front moving
southward across the Carolinas.  A weak midlevel trough will move
southeastward over NC this afternoon and aid weak ascent along the
front, which will support thunderstorm development this afternoon.
Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg) and substantial downdraft
potential (DCAPE greater than 1000 J/kg) will support a threat
for isolated strong/damaging gusts with multicell storms this
afternoon/evening.
 SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224
PM CDT Thu Jul 12 2018
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY TO THE WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
...SUMMARY...  Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Friday
afternoon and evening from the middle Missouri Valley into southern
Wisconsin.
...Synopsis...  A weak flow field aloft is progged across much of
the U.S. Friday, as ridging prevails in a broad sense over much of
the country.  At the surface, a weak cool front is progged to stretch
east-northeast to west-southwest from the upper Great Lakes through
the central Plains, and will sag slowly southward/southeastward
through the period.
...Eastern Nebraska northeastward to southern Wisconsin/northern
Illinois...  Substantial convection is expected prior to the
start of the period near the weak cool front progged to reside
over northern portions of the outlook area early in the period.
Daytime heating of a moist airmass near and south of the front --
and residual outflows -- will provide ample fuel for new storm
development across the area during the afternoon and evening.
Despite ample CAPE, the deep-layer wind field across the area is
progged to remain weak, with stronger flow aloft confined to the
area near and north of the international border.  As such, storms
are expected to remain only loosely organized, though stronger
cells/clusters of storms may be capable of producing marginally
severe hail, along with locally gusty winds that may produce minor
wind damage in a few areas.  While storms will continue through
the evening and into the overnight hours -- aided by evolution of a
weak/south-southwesterly low-level jet, severe risk should gradually
diminish in conjunction with a slowly stabilizing boundary layer.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...  Tornado:   2%     - Marginal Wind:
5%     - Marginal Hail:      5%     - Marginal
..Goss.. 07/12/2018
 SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 AM CDT Thu Jul 12 2018
Valid 121700Z - 131200Z
Weak mid-level flow will persist across the western CONUS. At the
surface, relatively weak low pressure will likely develop from
northern California into the Snake River Plain during the late
afternoon/peak heating.
...Southern Idaho...  With a weak thermal low developing in the
lower terrain of the Snake River Plain, a weak pressure gradient may
develop during peak afternoon heating, fostering sustained surface
winds up to 15 mph.  The surface airmass will also become quite
dry as the boundary layer mixes, with 10-15% surface RH values
expected. Given that receptive fuels are in place, an elevated
delineation was made for portions of the Snake River Plain owing
to favorable wind/RH for some fire spread.
...Central Nevada to central Utah...  Deeper layer moisture will
remain in place across the Great Basin this afternoon. With maximum
day time heating and associated lift, at least isolated storms are
expected to develop. In a very narrow corridor, some dry lightning
is possible, where storms may form in an environment characterized
by 0.50-1.0 inch precipitable water values and a dry boundary
layer. Though steering flow is weak, lightning occurring on the
periphery of the stronger storm cores may have the potential to
start fires where little or no rain accumulates. Still, the deep
tropospheric moisture in place suggests that rain will accumulate
with most storms, so an isolated dry thunderstorm area was not
delineated.
..Squitieri.. 07/12/2018
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Thu Jul 12 2018/
...Synopsis...  Weak flow throughout the depth of the troposphere
will exist across much of the western CONUS today. With this regime
in place, fire weather concerns will be minimal today. No areas
will be introduced at this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
 SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Thu Jul 12 2018
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
Much of the forecast remains on track for the Day 2/Friday period.
...Northern Oregon into northern Washington...  The aforementioned
surface pressure gradient will be collocated with a very dry
low-level airmass during peak heating. Sustained surface winds of
up to 15-25 mph are expected (particularly in north central Oregon)
along with 10-15% RH. Locally critical conditions are possible
during the late afternoon hours, as fuels have become receptive in
this area.
...Southern Oregon and far north California...  Monsoonal moisture
continues to slowly advect northward, where heating beneath a
deep, moist troposhere will continue to promote isolated to
scattered thunderstorms across the western Great Basin into
the Pacific Northwest. It appears that deeper moisture will be
present throughout much of California into far southwest Oregon
on Day 2/Friday. Given the deep moisture and slow storm motions,
wetting rains can be expected with most storms that form (hence the
retraction of the isolated dry thunderstorm delineation in most
of California). Still, cells along the northern periphery of the
moisture axis may produce dry lightning farther away from the storm
cores. Given the availability of fuels throughout the region, fire
ignitions may be possible anywhere where dry lightning may occur.
..Squitieri.. 07/12/2018
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Thu Jul 12 2018/
...Synopsis...  On D2/Friday, a thermal low will develop from
the Columbia Basin into northern Nevada. With high pressure off
the Pacific Northwest coast, a strong surface pressure gradient
will drive enhanced surface flow across portions of the Columbia
Basin in Washington southward into the Columbia River Gorge and
north-central Oregon. At least elevated fire weather conditions
will occur as afternoon RH values will fall to 10-25% with surface
winds around 15 mph.
Farther south, a mid-level disturbance will rotate around a ridge
situated over the Great Basin. This disturbance will provide lift
around the periphery of the monsoonal moisture and lead to chances
for isolated dry thunderstorms. The most favorable areas will likely
be portions of northern California into adjacent parts of Oregon
with other thunderstorm development along the Sierra Nevada into
far western Nevada. Dry lightning strikes appear most probable
early in the convective cycle with additional mid-level moisture
influx increasing the likelihood of wetting rainfall with time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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Weekends were made for programming.
		-- Karl Lehenbauer

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