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LU9DCE > ALERT    11.07.18 00:03l 222 Lines 12173 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 10380_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 10 07 2018
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<IW8PGT<CX2SA<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 180710/2000Z 10380@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.16


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 MD 1033 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL
 AND NORTHEAST MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1033 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018
Areas affected...central and northeast Montana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 101944Z - 102145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing across the higher terrain of
southwest Montana. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop
farther east and north along a cold front. The environment across
northeast Montana will be supportive of large hail with initial
thunderstorm development with a transition to more of a damaging wind
threat with time. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely by 3PM MDT.
DISCUSSION...Compact shortwave trough is lifting northeast across
northern Idaho and northwest Montana, with a midlevel jet nosing into
central Montana. At the surface, a weak surface low located across
central Montana and trailing cold front continue to move east across
Montana this afternoon. The environment ahead of the surface cold
front is moderately unstable, with mixed-layer CAPE increasing into
the 1000-2000 J/kg range as temperatures warm into the mid-to-upper
80s F. Additionally, as the midlevel jet moves atop the region,
deep-layer shear on the order of 50 knots should be maintained.
Thunderstorms are now developing across the higher terrain across
portions of southwest Montana with additional thunderstorms expected
farther northeast this afternoon as ascent increases a during maximum
heating and a frontal zone moves across the area. Given the highly
sheared, moderately unstable environment in place across eastern
Montana, as thunderstorms develop they will have the potential to
produce large hail and damaging winds. With time, upscale growth into
a mesoscale convective system (MCS) should result in an increasing
damaging wind threat.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed by 21Z.
..Marsh/Thompson.. 07/10/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...
LAT...LON   42639558 43249501 42859416 42599355 42329262 41699256
41389335 41599489 42639558
 MD 1032 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EAST MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 1032 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018
Areas affected...East Maine
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 101812Z - 102045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe is possible over the next few hours,
with marginally severe hail/wind the main threats. A WW issuance
is not anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Isolated storms, including a supercell with reported
marginally severe hail in Piscataquis County Maine, are moving
across east Maine and are expected to continue for the next few
hours. Adequate deep-layer ascent and effective bulk shear suggest
that the current storms will remain organized as they move across
the discussion area. Marginally severe hail and gusty winds will
likely be the main threats. Given the isolated and marginal nature
of the storms, a WW issuance is not anticipated at this time.
..Squitieri/Thompson.. 07/10/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...
LAT...LON   44716892 45106929 45456948 45736952 46186969 46556958
46976897 46996857 46616804 46166784 45836786 45526773 45276752
45006727 44756743 44576831 44716892
 SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130
AM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018
Valid 101630Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE EVENING FROM NORTHEASTERN MT INTO NORTHWESTERN ND...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
FOR EASTERN NY INTO VT/NH...
...SUMMARY...  Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large
hail are expected from central and northeastern Montana into
northwestern North Dakota this afternoon through late evening.
A few severe storms with damaging winds are also possible this
afternoon from the Ohio Valley into parts of New England.
...MT/ND this afternoon through tonight...  A midlevel shortwave
trough will move east-northeastward from the interior Pacific
Northwest this morning to northern MT and southern AB/SK, around the
northwestern periphery of the ridge dominating the central CONUS.
An associated surface cyclone and cold front will likewise progress
eastward across MT this afternoon/evening, providing a focus for
severe thunderstorm development.
Initial storm development is expected over the mountains of south
central MT with daytime heating/mixing within the monsoonal moisture
plume emanating from the Great Basin.  This high-based convection
will then spread east-northeastward through the afternoon/evening,
likely organizing into clusters on consolidated outflow, given an
environment of steep low-level lapse rates/large DCAPE and increasing
midlevel flow.  Other storms will also form this afternoon along
the cold front in north central MT, where forcing for ascent will be
stronger and deep mixing will weaken the cap.  Deep-layer vertical
shear will be sufficient for supercells initially, though the linear
forcing for ascent and outflow interactions should lead to upscale
growth into clusters/line segments.  The storms will subsequently
overspread northeastern MT this evening, and potentially move
into northwestern ND before weakening (as the storm encountering a
stronger cap with eastward extent).  Damaging winds and large hail
will be the main threats.
...OH Valley to New England this afternoon/evening...
A positive-tilt northern stream trough will move across New England
through tonight, as an accompanying cold front moves southward
into the upper OH Valley and southeastward across NY/PA and New
England this afternoon through tonight.  Daytime heating (afternoon
temperatures in the 80s) and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid
60s will drive weak-moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg).
This buoyancy and straight hodographs with 35-40 kt effective
bulk shear will support widely scattered storms with splitting
supercells possible, and an attendant threat for damaging winds
and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening.
Despite weakening vertical shear with southwestward extent from PA
into the OH Valley, downdraft potential will be strong enough to
support low damaging wind probabilities with downbursts.
..Thompson/Squitieri.. 07/10/2018
 SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221
PM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
MS VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...  Severe thunderstorms are possible across the upper
Mississippi Valley Wednesday evening. A few strong storms should
develop across Virginia.
...Upper MS Valley...
Northern Rockies short-wave trough is forecast to translate into MB
early in the period before ejecting into western ON by 12/12z. This
feature is expected to flatten the pronounced ridge across MN during
the day although the most appreciable height falls will remain north
of the international border. Late day1 convection is expected to
initiate over SK/northeast MT then spread east as a possible MCS
along/north of the ND/SK/MB border with remnants of this feature
possibly making it into northwest MN by the start of the period.
Latest thinking is warm advection convection will focus across
western MB during the day with frontal convection holding off until
very late in the afternoon, or perhaps into the early evening.
Models suggest strong boundary-layer heating will contribute to
strong buoyancy across MN but low-level flow along the wind shift
will veer considerably, possibly delaying convective initiation.
Even so, negligible inhibition by late afternoon should result
in isolated severe thunderstorm development along the southern
influence of aforementioned short wave. Forecast soundings exhibit
shear/instability supportive of potential supercells. Hail, wind and
possibly a few tornadoes can be expected with storms that develop
across the SLGT Risk.
...VA...
Mid-level speed max is forecast to dig southeast across the
Great Lakes into the OH Valley during the afternoon. As a result,
high-level diffluent flow will develop across the Middle Atlantic
ahead of a surface front that should drape itself across VA during
the afternoon. Strong heating across the higher terrain of southeast
WV/VA is expected to aid in convective development. This activity
will spread/develop southeast into southern VA during the evening
hours, aided in large part by a digging short-wave trough that will
approach the Middle Atlantic coast by the end of the period.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...  Tornado:   5%     - Slight Wind:
15%     - Slight Hail:     15%     - Slight
..Darrow.. 07/10/2018
 SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 AM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018
Valid 101700Z - 111200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY IN IDAHO...
Added a small critical area to portions of the Snake River Valley in
Idaho. Several ASOS/AWOS and RAWS sites are already reporting winds
in excess of 20 mph this morning. These wind speeds are expected
to continue or increase, with RH values expected to drop to 10 to
15 percent by later this afternoon.
..Bentley.. 07/10/2018
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018/
...Synopsis...  An upper-level trough will lift to the
northeast across the Pacific Northwest today. A combination of
modest down-mixing of the mid-level jet and a strong surface
high-pressure system building in the wake of the trough will lead
to elevated to locally critical fire weather across the Snake River
Valley. Surface winds of 15-20 mph will overlap with afternoon RH
values of 10-15%. Spatiotemporal extent of 20 mph winds is limited
enough that no critical areas have been introduced. Fuels along
this corridor have continued to dry as very little rainfall has
fallen over the past week.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
 SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes needed as fire weather conditions remain mostly benign
across the CONUS.
..Bentley.. 07/10/2018
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018/
...Synopsis...  The longwave pattern becomes generally unfavorable
for critical fire weather conditions over areas where fuels are
critically dry beginning D2/Wednesday. Weak flow aloft will
return to much of the western CONUS as the upper-level ridge
builds/retrogrades westward.  The surface pattern will also not
yield any 20+ mph winds over dry fuels. Potential for isolated
dry thunderstorms may exist within portions the Intermountain West
along the periphery of mid-level moisture, however, confidence is
too low to warrant introducing any highlights at this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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Weekends were made for programming.
		-- Karl Lehenbauer

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