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LU9DCE > ALERT 31.12.19 07:03z 131 Lines 7068 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6225_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 31 12
Path: HB9ON<IK7NXU<IK6IHL<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 191231/0700Z 6225@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101
PM CST Mon Dec 30 2019
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
...Discussion... An occluded mid-latitude cyclone will be located
over the northern Great Lakes today with a secondary weak surface
low off the Northeast coast. A cold front will extend southeastward
from this surface low and remain mostly offshore until reaching
the far southern tip of Florida. Thunderstorm development is not
expected due to inhibition (caused by warm temperatures between
850 and 700 mb) and weak forcing along the front.
Farther west, a closed low will be located near the Baja with a
strong upper jet approaching the Pacific Northwest. Precipitation
will be mostly stratiform across western Washington and northwest
Oregon today, but weak elevated instability (100 to 250 J/kg MUCAPE)
and enhanced lift due to orographic effects may lead to some
lightning during the day and evening hours, mostly in Washington.
The better chance for thunderstorms will be early Wednesday morning
(06Z to 12Z), when colder air moves in aloft and lapse rates
steepen. Surface based convection may develop during this period
with MLCAPE around 250 to 500 J/kg. Isolated strong wind gusts may
be possible with any stronger updrafts due to the strong wind field
(40+ kts below 925 mb), but overall, the limited instability and
coverage should preclude any substantial severe weather threat.
..Bentley.. 12/31/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130
PM CST Mon Dec 30 2019
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... The potential for thunderstorm activity may increase
across parts of southern and eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi
Valley late New Year's day through early Thursday. However, the
risk for severe weather appears negligible.
...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies will undergo
considerable amplification across the mid-latitude Pacific into
North America during this period, likely including the evolution
of a broad, building mid/upper ridge over the eastern Pacific,
to the north of a prominent subtropical high.
Within several splitting belts of downstream westerlies, short wave
developments remain a little unclear due to lingering spread evident
in the ensemble output of the various models. In general, though,
the primary mid/upper trough amplification is still expected in
association with one sharply digging short wave, across the southern
Rockies into southern high Plains by 12Z Thursday. As this occurs,
downstream ridging is forecast to build across and east of the
lower/middle Mississippi Valley, while the northwestern periphery
of subtropical ridging (centered over the Caribbean) holds firm
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Given this evolution, the
remnants of a fairly significant closed low, now digging toward the
Baja Peninsula, probably will undergo considerable further shearing
while progressing eastward into and through northern Mexico.
In lower-levels, surface troughing likely will deepen across
a broad area from the High Plains into the Mississippi Valley,
southward across the Texas Gulf coast and lower Rio Grande Valley.
While one embedded low begins to develop across the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandle region, another wave may form along a frontal zone off
the northwest Gulf coast, and approach upper Texas/Louisiana coastal
areas by 12Z Thursday.
In response to associated strengthening of southerly return flow,
lower/mid tropospheric warm advection and moistening off a modifying
Gulf boundary layer will contribute to destabilization above the
inland advancing warm front. While it appears that weak mid-level
lapse rates (largely due to saturating profiles associated with
precipitation from convection within high-level moisture return
emanating from subtropical Pacific) will limit CAPE, thermodynamic
profiles probably will still become supportive of at least scattered
weak thunderstorm activity across parts of southern and eastern
Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley by late Wednesday night.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Kerr.. 12/31/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1102 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2019
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A mature mid-latitude cyclone will be present over
the northern Great Lakes today with a secondary surface low off the
New England coast. A cold front will extend from this surface low
southeastward off the east coast of the CONUS. Behind this front,
cool conditions will be present across much of the eastern CONUS
with high pressure in the Rockies. A wet storm system will move
into the Pacific Northwest during the day today bringing increasing
winds and significant precipitation. Wet and/or cool conditions
will preclude fire weather concerns across the CONUS today.
..Bentley.. 12/31/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2019
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Lee cyclogenesis is expected in the southern High
Plains on Wednesday as mid-level heights lower across the central
Rockies. The surface pressure gradient is expected to strengthen
through the day which will increase surface winds in the southern
High Plains. Expect winds of 20 to 30 mph in eastern New Mexico and
West Texas. The relative humidity in this region is expected to be
in the 20 to 30 mph range. These meteorological conditions would
be marginally supportive of an elevated fire weather threat. In
addition, dormant grasses will likely support an increase in
initial attack, but wetting rain fell across much of this region
over the weekend and thus, the threat for large-fire spread may be
limited. Therefore, no elevated fire weather delineation has been
added at this time.
..Bentley.. 12/31/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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So little time, so little to do.
-- Oscar Levant
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