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LU9DCE > ALERT 30.12.19 07:13z 134 Lines 7044 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6166_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 30 12
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IR2UBX<DB0RES<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<N7HPX<
LU9DCE
Sent: 191230/0701Z 6166@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158
PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELMARVA PENINSULA...AND INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
PA/SOUTHERN NJ...
...SUMMARY... A couple of strong thunderstorms may impact portions
of the Mid-Atlantic region Monday afternoon, possibly accompanied
by local/low-end severe risk.
...Synopsis... A large upper low initially over the Midwest is
forecast to drift slowly east-northeastward into the Upper Great
Lakes region today, as an associated area of mid-level height
falls spreads across the eastern U.S. with time. Farther west,
an upper low off the southern California coast is progged to dig
south-southeastward, reaching a position west of Baja California
through early Tuesday morning.
At the surface, an occluded low is expected to linger over the
Upper Great Lakes region, while a trailing cold front -- east of
the Appalachian crest by the start of the period -- shifts eastward
through the day, and offshore overnight. By midday, a secondary
low is progged to begin developing near the triple point over the
Chesapeake Bay region. The low should shift off the coast around
sunset, and then continue northeastward toward Cape Cod overnight.
Elsewhere across the U.S., high pressure will prevail.
...Mid-Atlantic region... As a triple-point surface low develops
across the Bay area by midday, and then shifts northeastward
toward/off the southern New Jersey coast by evening, a minimally
unstable warm sector will spread across the risk area during
the afternoon, just ahead of the advancing cold front. While
greater/elevated convective development is forecast northward
across eastern PA, which will then spread northeastward, instability
appears too limited for any appreciable hail risk. Still, a stronger
storm or two may evolve from southern New Jersey/far southeast PA
southward across the Delmarva region and Chesapeake Bay. With shear
supportive of organized/rotating updrafts, very limited/local risk
for a stronger wind gust or brief tornado is apparent, warranting
maintenance of MRGL/5% risk, until the front moves offshore during
the evening.
..Goss/Bentley.. 12/30/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130
PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across
much of the U.S. on New Year's Eve.
...Discussion... One or two short wave perturbations emerging from
a strong mid-latitude Pacific jet still appear likely to round and
flatten the crest of initially amplified, positively tilted ridging,
across the Pacific Northwest during this period. As this occurs,
downstream stream flow across the remainder of the northern tier of
the U.S. may trend less amplified. The primary troughing, initially
still with a relatively deep embedded lower/mid tropospheric cyclone
at 12Z Tuesday, may gradually broaden while shifting east of the
Great Lakes, through the eastern Canadian provinces and Northeast.
The associated occluded surface cyclone is forecast to undergo
considerable weakening, as a secondary cyclone deepens more rapidly
and occludes while migrating northeast of the Cape Cod vicinity,
toward the Canadian Maritimes.
In the wake of the deepening low, a trailing cold front is expected
to advance through the remainder of the Florida Peninsula, with
generally negligible risk for thunderstorm activity due to weak
low-level convergence and the continuing presence of capping layers
within the warm sector.
Meanwhile, near and just ahead of the deepening low, strengthening
lower/mid tropospheric warm advection and associated lift may develop
across parts of central and northeast Maine around midday Tuesday,
before spreading into New Brunswick. This may be accompanied by
sufficient steepening of mid-level lapse rates to contribute to some
risk for weak thunderstorms. However, based on latest forecast
soundings, any such activity may remain brief and isolated enough
that a categorical thunder outlook is not warranted at this time.
Otherwise, in lower latitudes, an initially vigorous mid-level
closed low may begin to undergo deformation while continuing to
generally dig across the Baja Peninsula vicinity. However, any
associated risk for thunderstorms likely will remain well south of
the Southwestern international border.
While generally stable conditions are expected to prevail across
much of the nation through the period, it does still appear that
strong mid-level cooling could steepen lapse rates sufficiently to
support low probabilities for thunderstorms near and west of the
Washington Cascades by late Tuesday night.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Kerr.. 12/30/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A large upper low over the Great Lakes will be
responsible for cool and wet conditions in much of the eastern
CONUS on Monday. These cool conditions will also be present across
the central and western CONUS as strong surface high pressure
moves into the central Rockies. The combination of cool and/or wet
conditions across most of the CONUS will limit the overall threat
for large fires.
..Bentley.. 12/30/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a weak area of low pressure in the
northeast will bring some light snow. Most of the remainder of the
CONUS (except for the Pacific Northwest where rain/mountain snow
will be present) will be under the influence of high pressure and
cool temperatures. Cool temperatures across most of the CONUS and
mostly wet fuels will limit the large-fire threat on Tuesday.
..Bentley.. 12/30/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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It's like deja vu all over again.
-- Yogi Berra
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