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LU9DCE > ALERT 30.11.19 07:04z 83 Lines 4362 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 30 11
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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MD 2174 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST WY...NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2174 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 PM CST Fri Nov 29 2019
Areas affected...Southeast WY...Nebraska Panhandle...Southwest
South Dakota
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 300449Z - 300845Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snow, with rates of 1-2" per hour, will
develop/spread northeast across the central High Plains into the
early morning hours.
DISCUSSION...Exit region of strong mid-level jet is spreading across
the central High Plains this evening. Latest water-vapor imagery
depicts a well-defined zone of apparent large-scale forcing for
ascent expanding across WY/Nebraska Panhandle into southwest South
Dakota. Radar data supports this evolution with a maturing band of
convective snow from Weld County, CO to Sioux County, NE. Strong
low-level warm advection will contribute to strengthening snow
bands developing into SD over the next few hours. It appears very
heavy snow, with rates approaching 2" per hour, will be noted over
the next several hours.
..Darrow.. 11/30/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...
LAT...LON 41010451 42390445 43400278 43180172 42440176 41310289
41010451
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159
PM CST Fri Nov 29 2019
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
and evening from the Arklatex area eastward to southeast Arkansas,
northwest Mississippi and southwest Tennessee. Wind damage, hail
and a few tornadoes will be the main hazards.
...Arklatex/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... An upper-level low
will move eastward into the mid Missouri Valley today as powerful
100 to 120 kt mid-level jet rounds the base of the associated
upper-level trough. At the surface, a moist airmass ahead of the
system will advect northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi
Valley. Surface dewpoints should increase into the 60s F across much
of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley ahead of a cold front. As
instability increases around midday, thunderstorms are forecast to
develop along the front from east Texas northeastward into central
Arkansas. This convection should spread east-northeastward into
the lower to mid Mississippi Valley during the mid to late afternoon.
RAP forecast soundings along the moist axis in the 21Z to 00Z
timeframe from Monroe, Louisiana to south of Memphis, Tennessee
increase MLCAPE values to near 1500 J/kg and have 0-6 km shear in the
60 to 70 kt range. In addition, 0-3 km storm relative helicity values
are forecast to reach the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range. This suggests
that the environment will support supercell development with a few
tornadoes possible. An isolated significant tornado can not be ruled
out along the corridor with the strongest low-level shear. The
tornado threat should depend upon how discrete cells remain as
convective coverage increases during the afternoon. Some uncertainty
exists concerning the tornado threat due to a veer-back-veer
signature evident on many forecast soundings. The axis of greatest
severe threat should be from north-central Louisiana northeastward
into western Tennessee. Supercells along this corridor should also
be capable of producing hail and wind damage. The wind damage threat
would be greatest if a line of severe storms can develop along the
moist axis during the late afternoon and early evening.
..Broyles/Wendt.. 11/30/2019
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