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LU9DCE > ALERT 28.11.19 07:14z 150 Lines 7891 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3868_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 28 11
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 191128/0700Z 3868@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SLACKWARE LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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MD 2171 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE
INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 2171 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2019
Areas affected...parts of the TX Panhandle into far northwestern OK
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 280450Z - 280915Z
SUMMARY...Freezing rain rates around 0.05 inch per 3 hours are
possible through 3am CST.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a large precipitation shield across
the southern High Plains with very light precipitation located over
the Permian Basin. Surface temperatures as of 1045pm CST range from
around 32 deg F over the central TX Panhandle to the upper 30s over
the northern part of the TX Panhandle where precipitation has yet
to reach the surface.
The initial precipitation will lead to column moistening/wet bulb
cooling, which will lead to light mixed precipitation type during
the next 1-2 hours over far northwestern OK and the northern
portion of the TX Panhandle. The 00z Amarillo raob sampled the
drier low-level air that has since moistened. RAP/NAM forecast
soundings show a relatively narrow corridor where freezing rain
appears to be the preferred precipitation type from south of
Amarillo north-northeastward into northwest OK. These forecast
soundings indicated the above-freezing layer (750-700mb) will
gradually warm during the overnight as low-level warm advection
strengthens. With a low-latitude shortwave trough moving through
northwest Mexico tonight, intensification of the precipitation
rates is expected over the southern High Plains by early morning.
However, it appears a temporary diminishing in precipitation rates
will occur after the initial late evening/early overnight activity
moves across the TX Panhandle.
..Smith.. 11/28/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 34810208 35240219 36810089 36940039 36849983 36449975
34760098 34580177 34810208
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131
PM CST Wed Nov 27 2019
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHWESTERN AZ...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible from the lower
Colorado River Valley into southwestern Arizona later this evening
and overnight.
...Southwestern US...
Large-scale height falls are forecast to spread across the
southwestern US during the latter half of the period in response
to a strong upper trough that is digging across CA. Latest model
guidance suggests 100kt 500mb speed max will rotate into the base of
the trough before translating across the northern Baja Peninsula by
29/12z. In response to this digging trough, boundary-layer moisture
should advance north across the Gulf of CA/northwestern Mexico
into the lower CO River Valley. While some boundary-layer heating
is expected across the southwestern deserts, cooling profiles
aloft/steepening lapse rates will contribute to destabilization
from southern CA into AZ. Forecast soundings suggest surface-based
parcels become sufficiently buoyant for thunderstorms after 23z.
With strengthening wind fields and strong shear forecast, a few weak
supercells could ultimately develop within the MRGL Risk outlook.
Hail and locally severe wind gusts would be the primary threats.
Downstream across TX/OK...weak elevated convection is expected along
a corridor from northeastern Mexico - Concho Valley - southern OK
due to strengthening isentropic ascent amidst moistening/cooling
mid levels. However, weak instability will preclude severe threat
across this region.
..Darrow/Nauslar.. 11/28/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251
AM CST Thu Nov 28 2019
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY... Limited risk for marginal hail is evident
across portions of the Oklahoma/northern Texas vicinity Friday
evening/overnight.
...Synopsis... A large upper low initially over the
California/Nevada vicinity is progged to move east-northeastward
across the Rockies, reaching the western Nevada vicinity late in
the period. Upstream, a ridge axis will persist in the vicinity
of the Mississippi Valley, before being shunted gradually eastward
late in the period, as the western upper system advances.
At the surface, a cold front is forecast to cross the
southwest/southern Rockies through the day, and then into/across
the central and southern Plains overnight, as a parent low deepens
in the western Nebraska vicinity. By the end of the period, the
system should reach peak intensity -- as it becomes increasingly
vertically stacked through Saturday morning.
...Parts of Oklahoma and north Texas... A cool/stable boundary layer
appears likely to persist across the southern Plains region Friday,
likely to be reinforced by persistent rain showers through the day.
This, combined with capping as a result of a persistent warm layer
near 850 mb suggests little potential for surface-based storms.
Still, with large-scale ascent increasing through the second half of
the period, an overnight convective increase is expected over parts
of Oklahoma and north Texas, near -- and to the cool side -- of the
surface front as it crosses the area through the end of the period.
Ample elevated CAPE may support some hail with stronger cells -- with
updraft intensity aided by a favorably strong kinematic environment.
Still, most of the hail should remain sub-severe, with only low-end
(5%) risk for hail exceeding 1" in diameter apparent at this time.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Goss.. 11/28/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2019
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A large, deep upper-level trough will remain over
the West Coast today with widespread precipitation expected over the
Desert Southwest, Four Corners region, and southern Plains. Given
the observed and forecast precipitation, the fire weather threat
will be non existent across the CONUS today.
..Nauslar.. 11/28/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2019
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A highly amplified pattern will continue across the
CONUS on Friday with a large upper-level trough slowly tracking
eastward across the Intermountain West. Widespread precipitation
is expected across much of the Southwest into the Rockies and over
Plains and Midwest through Friday night. As such, the fire weather
threat will remain minimal through Friday.
..Nauslar.. 11/28/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Politician, n.:
From the Greek "poly" ("many") and the French "tete" ("head" or
"face," as in "tete-a-tete": head to head or face to face). Hence
"polytetien", a person of two or more faces.
-- Martin Pitt
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