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LU9DCE > ALERT 20.07.19 07:03z 310 Lines 15775 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 28767_LU9DCE
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 20 07
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<DB0RES<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190720/0700Z 28767@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SLACKWARE LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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WW 527 SEVERE TSTM SD 200450Z - 201000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 527 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 PM MDT Fri
Jul 19 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwestern South Dakota
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 1050 PM
until 400 AM MDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated
very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms, including supercells, will
likely persist for the next several hours while moving eastward
across northwestern South Dakota. Large hail will be the primary
severe threat, though isolated damaging cannot be ruled out with
clustering of storms and development a little south of the current
storms during the early morning hours.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and
55 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles south
southwest of Buffalo SD to 35 miles south southeast of Mobridge SD.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 526...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Thompson
WW 526 SEVERE TSTM MI LM 200250Z - 201000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 526 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 PM EDT Fri
Jul 19 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Lower Michigan
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 1050 PM
until 600 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph
possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A well-developed convective system across northeastern
Wisconsin will cross Lake Michigan and move into northern Lower
Michigan during the next few hours. The storms will continue to
be capable of producing damaging gusts, prior to weakening during
the early morning hours.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and
50 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west of
Manistee MI to 5 miles east southeast of Houghton Lake MI. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 525...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29045.
...Thompson
WW 0527 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 527
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW 2WX TO
35 ESE 2WX TO 25 SE Y22 TO 45 NW MBG.
..GLEASON..07/20/19
ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 527
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC019-031-041-055-063-081-093-105-117-137-200740-
SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTTE CORSON DEWEY HAAKON
HARDING LAWRENCE MEADE PERKINS
STANLEY ZIEBACH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0526 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 526
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE MTW TO
25 NNE MKG TO 50 SE MBL TO 35 WSW HTL TO 20 SE TVC TO 30 SW PLN.
..GLEASON..07/20/19
ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 526
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC009-035-039-051-073-079-107-113-123-133-137-143-200640-
MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANTRIM CLARE CRAWFORD GLADWIN
ISABELLA KALKASKA MECOSTA MISSAUKEE
NEWAYGO OSCEOLA OTSEGO ROSCOMMON
LMZ848-870-200640-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
WW 0525 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 525
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW VOK TO
35 SSE CWA TO 15 NW MTW TO 20 NE MTW TO 50 NW MBL TO 60 S ESC TO
45 SSW ESC TO 15 SSW ESC.
..LEITMAN..07/20/19
ATTN...WFO...GRB...ARX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 525
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
WIC015-029-053-071-137-139-200440-
WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALUMET DOOR JACKSON MANITOWOC
WAUSHARA WINNEBAGO
LMZ521-541-542-543-563-565-567-200440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI
TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI
Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER
NORMAN OK 1246 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019
CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC
...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Upper Midwest
this afternoon and tonight...
* LOCATIONS... Northern and central Wisconsin Central Minnesota
Northern Lower and Upper Michigan
* HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several
tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size
* SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms with the
possibility of strong tornadoes and widespread significant wind
damage is expected from central Minnesota across northern Wisconsin
during the mid/late afternoon into tonight.
Preparedness actions...
Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means
that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the
next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for
your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room
on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257
AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
IA...SOUTHERN WI...NORTHERN IL...AND LOWER MI AND EASTERN CO...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of wind damage and hail
will be possible today across parts of the central and northern
Plains east-northeastward into the Lower Michigan. Severe storms
will also be possible from southeast Wyoming into eastern Colorado.
...Northern/Central Plains...Upper MS Valley...Upper Great Lakes
Early morning surface analysis places a low over eastern WY. A
cold front extends eastward from this low across northern NE and
then northeastward across northwest IA and south-central MN into
northern WI. A strong low-level jet will promote warm-air advection
across this frontal zone, contributing to elevated showers and
thunderstorms that will likely persist into the morning across SD.
These showers and thunderstorms will help reinforce the cold
front, which is expected to remain largely stationary through
the mid-morning. This area will be on the southern periphery
of the stronger flow aloft and the resulting vertical shear may
support storm organization and occasional updrafts strong enough
to produce severe hail. Linear storm structures are also possible,
but low-level stability should prevent any strong downdrafts from
reaching the surface through about mid-morning.
Given diurnal heating and the slow-moving character of cold front,
the potential for surface-based storms will increase with eastern
extent. This could result in a few stronger storms from northeast IA
across southern WI/northern IL into Lower MI where the air mass is
expected to recover quickly in the wake of this mornings MCS. Steep
low-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and relatively
warm mid-levels support the development of strong downdrafts. Very
strong buoyancy (i.e. 3500+ J/kg of MLCAPE) will also support the
potential for large hail and perhaps a brief tornado.
...Central High Plains... Dewpoints are expected to be around
60 after the cold front moves through the region during the late
afternoon. Given the southwesterly flow aloft, storms developing over
the higher terrain may move off the terrain into the more moist,
post-frontal air mass across eastern CO/WY. Increased instability
and vertical shear supports the potential for storms capable of
large hail and strong wind gusts.
..Mosier/Bentley.. 07/20/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153
PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from
the lower Missouri Valley eastward into the southern Great Lakes
and Mid-Atlantic states on Sunday. Damaging gusts are the primary
hazard.
...Synopsis... A belt of moderate to strong mid-level flow will
be relegated to the Upper Midwest east to New England. Embedded
within this flow, a shortwave trough will move from the Dakotas to
the Great Lakes. Farther south, a flattened mid-level ridge will
encompass a large area of the contiguous U.S. from the Mid-Atlantic
states and Southeast westward across the southern Great Plains
and into the Desert Southwest. In the low levels, a cold front,
augmented by convective outflow, will push southward across the
central Great Plains and Midwest.
...Lower MO Valley into the southern Great Lakes... Diurnal heating
along and south of the front will contribute to a moderately to
very unstable airmass by mid afternoon from the lower MO Valley into
northern portions of IL/IN/OH and southern Lower MI. Model guidance
continues to show stronger flow aloft displaced to the north of
the warm sector which will result in a wind profile for multicells.
Relatively weak capping over the southern Great Lakes will promote
storm development in the form of a few clusters potentially capable
of an isolated damaging wind risk. Farther west, upwards of 3000+
MLCAPE over MO and steep low-level lapse rates may yield a wind/hail
risk with the stronger cores. Some of the thunderstorms may continue
through the evening but the severe risk will likely decrease owing
to the loss of heating.
...Mid-Atlantic states... A reservoir of rich low-level moisture
and strong heating will contribute to a moderate to very unstable
airmass by early afternoon as surface temperatures warm into the
90s-100 degrees F range east of the higher terrain. A lee trough
will aid in focusing storm development and a couple of thunderstorms
clusters are forecast. Forecast soundings show very weak westerly
flow through the troposphere which should result in slow-moving
storms. However, steep 0-2km lapse rates around 9 degrees C/km
and 2 inches PW may support a couple of vigorous water-loaded
downdrafts yielding localized gusts 40-55mph. Pockets of wind
damage may accompany the strongest thunderstorms.
...New England... Some recent model guidance shows weak to moderate
instability developing by midday, particularly for areas east of the
higher terrain in southern ME and southern New England. Although
stronger westerly flow fields are forecast than areas farther south,
there is uncertainty regarding storm coverage and intensity; for
these reasons, will preclude a 5-percent area at this time.
...MS/AL and FL Peninsula... Areas of scattered diurnal
thunderstorms are forecast across this general region by the
early-mid afternoon. Weak shear profiles will result in pulse
thunderstorms. Steepening 0-2km lapse rates in a moist/poor
mid-level lapse rate environment will support water loaded
downdrafts with the strongest thunderstorms. Pockets of 40-55mph
gusts may result in localized wind damage. This activity will
largely dissipate by early evening.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: 5%
- Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Smith.. 07/20/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Dry conditions will be present in most of the
interior West today, but flow will be mostly weak across the
region. Localized elevated conditions may be possible in northern
Arizona and eastern Utah where some surface winds at or above 15 mph
are possible, but do not expect these conditions to be widespread
enough to warrant an elevated fire weather area.
Elsewhere, surface winds of 20 to 25 mph are expected in the TX/OK
panhandles into southwest Kansas. However, relative humidity is
not expected to be overly dry in that area (15 to 25 percent), and
fuels are still moist enough to alleviate most fire weather concerns.
..Bentley.. 07/20/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A ridge will amplify across the western CONUS
on Sunday which will continue the dry conditions for much
of the interior West and keep winds mostly light across the
region. Mid-level flow will start to increase Sunday evening which
could lead to some stronger downslope flow in portions of western
Nevada in the lee of the Sierras, but the stronger mid-level flow
is not expected to arrive until late Sunday night into Monday.
..Bentley.. 07/20/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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"As part of the conversion, computer specialists rewrote 1,500 programs;
a process that traditionally requires some debugging."
-- USA Today, referring to the IRS switchover to a new
computer system.
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