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LU9DCE > ALERT 19.07.19 07:04z 202 Lines 11436 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 28725_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 19 07
Path: HB9ON<IK7NXU<IK6IHL<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<LU9DCE
Sent: 190719/0701Z 28725@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SLACKWARE LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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MD 1521 CONCERNING 01Z OUTLOOK UPGRADE FOR PORTIONS OF FAR
SOUTHEASTERN MT...FAR NORTHEASTERN WY...FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND...AND
NORTHWESTERN SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1521 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019
Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern MT...far northeastern
WY...far southwestern ND...and northwestern SD
Concerning...01Z Outlook upgrade
Valid 190626Z - 190900Z
SUMMARY...Isolated severe risk should continue overnight. Large
hail appears to be the main threat. Overall threat will probably
remain too isolated for a watch.
DISCUSSION...Storms have recently strengthened across far
southeastern MT into far southwestern ND along and just ahead of
a cold front. Ascent overspreading this region associated with a
subtle shortwave trough embedded within enhanced mid/upper-level
westerly flow may also be aiding storm development. This convection
will likely remain elevated above a shallow near-surface stable
layer. But, steep mid-level lapse rates are contributing to
1500-2500+ MUCAPE, which increases with eastward extent across
western SD. Strong mid/upper-level winds will support elevated
supercells early this morning with mainly a large hail threat given
the 50-60 kt of effective bulk shear. This threat for isolated large
hail will probably persist for the next couple of hours into parts
of far southwestern ND and northwestern SD. At least a marginal risk
of severe storms is apparent, but the overall threat will probably
remain too isolated to justify watch issuance.
..Gleason/Grams.. 07/19/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...
LAT...LON 45130531 45660492 46260364 46370291 46330179 45930090
45010089 44470157 44170262 44180404 44510499 45130531
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254
AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
MN...CENTRAL/NORTHERN MI...AND WESTERN UPPER MI...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of all severe threats, including
large hail, strong wind gusts, and tornadoes, are possible across
portions of the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes today.
...Upper Midwest...Upper Great Lakes... Showers and isolated
thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
over portions of the Upper Great Lakes, supported by a modest
low-level jet. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to
dissipate by the early morning as the low-level jet weakens.
A very moist air mass is currently in place over the Upper
Midwest/Upper Great Lakes, with even better moisture upstream across
the Middle MS Valley. This air mass will remain over the region
today with some modest moist advection possible. As a result,
dewpoints are expected to be mid to upper 70s across a large
portion of the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Dewpoints
around 80 may be realized across southern MN near a weak surface
low. Surface temperatures are also expected to climb into the 90s
as the boundary layer mixes. These very warm and moist conditions
will exist beneath relatively cool mid-level temperatures, resulting
in very steep (i.e. 8-8.5 deg C per km) mid-level lapse rates. As a
result, an extremely buoyant thermodynamic environment (i.e. 4000+
J/kg of MLCAPE) will be in place. Highest buoyancy will likely
occur across northern IA, southern MN, and west-central WI. In
these areas MLCAPE could exceed 6000 J/kg this afternoon and evening.
In addition to this extreme buoyancy, seasonally strong westerly
flow aloft will extend from the northern High Plains through Upper
MI. Generally southerly low-level flow beneath these westerlies
results in effective bulk shear values of 45-55 kt across much of
MN and northern WI today afternoon and evening.
Overall, the resulting environment is very favorable for severe
thunderstorms. Large-scale forcing for ascent will be negligible
but convergence near a weak surface low expected to centered
be near the southern SD/MN border this afternoon, and a warm
front extending east from the low, will provide the impetus for
convective initiation. Once initiation occurs, strong updrafts
are expected to develop rapidly, with an attendant threat for all
severe hazards including very large hail and tornadoes. Generation
of strong cold pools are expected to result in quick upscale growth
into a convective line. Strength of the vertical shear suggests the
potential for a well-organized and intense convective line capable
of significant wind gusts exists. Higher wind probabilities may
be needed in subsequent forecasts if confidence in the development
and location of a well-organized convective line increases.
...Lower Great Lakes...Northeast... Weak convectively induced
shortwave trough is expected to progress over the Lower Great
Lakes this afternoon, providing enough lift for thunderstorm
development. Air mass over the region will be moderately unstable
but weakly sheared. Expectation is for predominantly multicellular,
outflow-dominant storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts.
...SD... A strong low-level jet will develop across the Plains
tonight with the resulting warm-air advection supporting thunderstorm
development across SD. These initially elevated storms could produce
isolated large hail. As they move eastward, low-probability potential
exists for a few downdrafts intense enough to produce strong wind
gusts at the surface.
..Mosier/Bentley.. 07/19/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234
AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES INTO NEBRASKA AND IN PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...
...SUMMARY... An isolated severe risk will exist from Nebraska
eastward into the central Great Lakes and over parts of eastern
Colorado. Damaging gusts and large hail are the primary threats.
...Central Great Lakes into the central High Plains... A belt of
strong westerlies will be confined to the states bordering Canada on
Saturday with a flattened mid-level ridge over the OH Valley. A cold
front initially over the Upper Midwest extending west-southwestward
into the central High Plains will move southward, with the front
accelerating south through most of eastern CO and into western KS
by early evening. A reservoir of rich boundary layer moisture over
the Midwest (characterized by 70s degrees F surface dewpoints) will
contribute to a very unstable airmass from the MO River east through
the middle MS Valley. Model guidance varies on the placement of
storms over the Upper Midwest early Saturday morning. Nonetheless,
it seems some of the early day activity may continue into parts of
the central Great Lakes with other development occurring during
the afternoon in the vicinity of the front farther west in IA.
Isolated damaging gusts/hail are the primary risks with the stronger
storms. Farther west over the central High Plains, increasing
low-level moisture will accompany a post-frontal upslope regime.
Strong heating coupled with orographically forced ascent will
promote storms developing near the terrain-favored locales before
spreading east into the plains. This activity will likely weaken
by early-mid evening.
...Mid-Atlantic states into much of the Southeast... A mid-level
ridge extending across the southern tier of states will favor
isolated to scattered diurnally driven storms. Ample heating leading
to steepened low-level lapse rates and a weak shear environment
will promote pulse thunderstorms. A few of the stronger cores may
yield localized gusty winds and perhaps small hail. This activity
will weaken by the early evening.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: 5%
- Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Smith.. 07/19/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...Synopsis... A strong mid to upper level jet will start to exit
the northern Rockies today. Some stronger mid-level flow will remain
on the back edge of this jet and some of these winds may mix toward
the surface across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies.
...Portions of the Great Basin into central Wyoming.... A belt of 15
to 25 mph winds is expected to develop from far southern California
northeastward into central Wyoming. In addition, portions of this
area will have relative humidities below 10 percent. This area is
covered by a broad elevated delineation, but conditions will likely
vary widely throughout the area from localized critical conditions
to very little fire weather concerns in others. This is due to
a combination of patchy low-level moisture as monsoonal moisture
is pulled northward in some areas, and terrain affects leading to
localized areas of stronger low-level flow.
...Snake River Valley in Idaho... Winds are expected to increase
to 15 to 20 mph in the Snake River Valley during the afternoon
hours with gradually decreasing relative humidity. There may be
a period in the late afternoon when relative humidity drops below
15 percent yielding the possibility for short duration, localized
critical conditions.
...Northern Rockies... Some critical meteorological conditions
are possible in north central Montana due to downslope flow, but
fuels across the area do not warrant a fire weather area at this
time. However, these dry and breezy conditions will help dry fuels
across the area which may lead to receptive fuels by late in the
weekend or early next week.
..Bentley.. 07/19/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Once the mid-level jet streak exits the northern
Rockies Saturday morning, flow will remain mostly weak across the
western CONUS with the only remaining flow in southern Montana
where fuels are not yet cured and precipitation has been bountiful
for the past few weeks. Therefore, the risk for new large fires
on Saturday will be mostly low across the CONUS.
Some weak to moderate surface winds may develop across northern
Arizona and far southern Utah during the afternoon, but winds are
expected to stay mostly below 15 mph across this region. Therefore,
no elevated delineation is warranted.
..Bentley.. 07/19/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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The meta-Turing test counts a thing as intelligent if it seeks to devise
and apply Turing tests to objects of its own creation.
-- Lew Mammel, Jr.
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