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LU9DCE > ALERT    18.07.19 07:03z 182 Lines 10015 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 28691_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 18 07
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<DB0RES<DB0OVN<DB0GOS<ON0AR<VE2PKT<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190718/0701Z 28691@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18

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               ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100
AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...  Areas of severe storms are possible across the Upper
Midwest on Thursday.
...Synopsis...  Upper ridging and weak flow aloft will remain
in place across the central and southern CONUS while enhanced
westerly flow aloft extends from the Pacific Northwest through the
Upper Great Lakes. A convectively induced shortwave will likely
move across the Upper Great Lakes early Thursday, moving into
eastern Ontario by Thursday evening. A second shortwave trough
(and associated speed max) is expected to move across the northern
Rockies Thursday evening.
At the surface, broad area of low pressure currently in place
across the central and northern Plains expected to remain largely in
place while lee troughing across the High Plains deepens. Southern
portion of a cold front associated with a low moving across the
Canadian Prairie provinces will move across the northern Plains
Thursday evening.
...Upper Midwest...Upper Great Lakes...  Showers and thunderstorms
will likely be ongoing across the region early Thursday morning. Most
of these storms are expected to weaken as the low-level jet loses
strengthen and they drift northeastward into a more stable air
mass. The only exception is storms along the southern periphery of
the anticipated storm cluster. In this area, the low-level jet will
likely remain stronger longer, helping to maintain storm intensity
as warm, moist, and unstable air is continually advected into the
storms. The development of a forward-propagating convective line
may occur, with the resulting line moving into northern IL and
northern IN. Confidence in the development of a convective line
is currently too low to introduce more than 5% probabilities but
higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks.
During the late afternoon, scattered, predominately cellular
thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of the cold front moving
through the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Despite
dewpoints in the mid 60s, warm mid-level temperatures and only weak
surface convergence suggest limited storm coverage. Long hodographs
support rotating updrafts with any storms that do form. Primary
severe threat will be strong wind gust but large hail and a tornado
or two are also possible.
Thunderstorms are also possible across southern MN and
central/southern WI Thursday evening. Residual outflow from
antecedent storms combined with a strengthening low-level jet
and the approaching front is expected to result in thunderstorm
initiation. Dewpoints in this region are expected to be in the low
to mid 70s with mid-level lapse rates likely around 7.5 deg C per
km. As a result, extreme buoyancy will be in place with MLCAPE over
4000 J/kg. Given the onset of nocturnal cooling, these storms may
have a relatively brief window to remain surface-based. Even so, the
strong instability coupled with modest vertical shear supports the
potential for severe thunderstorms. Primary severe threat is damaging
wind gusts but large hail and a tornado or two are also possible.
..Mosier/Bentley.. 07/18/2019
 SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257
AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...
...SUMMARY...  A few strong storms may develop across the upper
Midwest to portions of the northeastern States.
...Discussion...
Large-scale height rises are forecast across the upper Midwest into
New England during the day2 period as short-wave ridging builds
across southern ON/QC. Latest model guidance continues to suggest
seasonally strong mid-level flow will translate across the northern
High Plains into northwestern ON ahead of a positive-tilted trough
that will shift east along the international border during the
latter half of the period. This flow regime will likely result in
significant capping across the warm sector as EML plume is
 16C are
forecast to extend off the CO Rockies into southeast MN which
results in short-term model guidance allowing surface dew points to
rise to unusually high levels. This results in extreme CAPE ahead
of a front that should sag to a position from central MN-southeast
SD-NE Panhandle by late afternoon. NAM forecast sounding for FSD at
20/00z exhibits MUCAPE in excess of 9000 J/kg with a 23g/kg mixing
ratio. Even so, this air mass is capped with a temperature of 93F.
If storms form across this region they will likely do so north of
the boundary where frontal ascent will be maximized. Have expanded 5%
severe probs across the Great Lakes into southeast SD to account for
this post-frontal initiation. Any storms that form will propagate
southeast during the overnight hours.
Downstream, convection may be ongoing across parts of southern
ON early in the period along nose of a LLJ. If this activity can
organize there is some reason to believe it could spread southeast
into portions of the upper OH Valley region. Locally damaging winds
will be the primary threat with this activity.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...  Tornado:   2%     - Marginal Wind:
5%     - Marginal Hail:      5%     - Marginal
..Darrow.. 07/18/2019
 SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132
AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID MS VALLEY
TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...  Some severe threat will exist with storms that form
over the Mid Mississippi Valley into the upper Great Lakes.
...Discussion...
Upper ridge is forecast to flatten significantly across the northern
US during the day3 period as the southern extent of a positive tilted
short-wave trough shifts into ON. As deep-layer flow becomes more
northerly, surface front should advance to a position from WI-IA-KS
by late afternoon. This boundary is expected to serve as the focus
for potential robust convection. Large-scale pattern continues
to favor a substantial EML across the central Plains that should
extend into the upper Great Lakes. This plume should suppress deep
convection across the warm sector and limit convective development to
a post-frontal regime. Late-evening guidance suggests a significant
corridor of convection will develop north of the boundary from the
central Plains into northern lower MI. While this activity should
be elevated in nature, there appears to be some risk for gusty
winds and perhaps some hail.
..Darrow.. 07/18/2019
 SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...Synopsis...  A low-amplitude, long wavelength trough will be
centered over the Pacific Northwest on Thursday. A belt of stronger
mid-level flow will be present along the southern periphery of this
trough from Oregon/Washington into Montana and northern Wyoming.
...Columbia Basin...  The unseasonably strong mid-level flow will
lead to some downslope flow in the lee of the Cascades during the
afternoon/early evening.  The drying effects of this downslope
flow will lead to relative humidity at or below 20 percent with
winds around 15 to 20 mph.  Higher winds in the 20 to 25 mph
range are likely through the Cascade gaps and the Columbia River
Gorge. However, moist marine air from west of the Cascades will
lead to higher relative humidity in these areas where winds will
be strongest.
...Portions of the Great Basin...  Very dry conditions will be
present across most of the Great BAsin with relative humidity in the
5 to 15 percent range during the afternoon. Winds aloft will remain
mostly light across the region with afternoon mixing only increasing
winds to around 15 mph across Nevada and Utah. Stronger winds are
likely in the desert areas of southern Wyoming where winds aloft are
stronger and sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph are possible. However,
the relative lack of fuels, marginal fuel dryness, and somewhat
higher relative humidity across this area preclude the need for a
critical fire weather area in this region.
..Bentley.. 07/18/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
 SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...Synopsis...  A positive tilt upper-level trough will shift
eastward across the northern Rockies on Friday which will strengthen
the mid-level flow across the Great Basin. Therefore, as the boundary
layer deepens through the day, some of these stronger winds may mix
toward the surface. Winds are expected to be in the 15 to 20 mph
range with relative humidity ranging from 5 to 25 percent. Elevated
conditions are not expected to be continuous through the entire
area due to the influx of some monsoonal moisture from the south,
but there will be pockets where dry conditions and moderate surface
winds overlap warranting an elevated delineation.
..Bentley.. 07/18/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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