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LU9DCE > ALERT 17.07.19 07:02z 212 Lines 11962 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 28639_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 17 07
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<DB0RES<DB0OVN<DB0GOS<ON0AR<VE2PKT<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190717/0700Z 28639@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SLACKWARE LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100
AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY...NORTHERN MN...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND
NORTHEAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts
and large hail are possible across portions of the northern High
Plains and mid-to-upper Mississippi Valley through tonight. Storms
capable of damaging wind gusts will be possible across portions of
the Northeast this afternoon and evening.
...Minnesota/Iowa into the mid MS Valley... A great deal of
uncertainty remains regarding convective evolution leading into the
Day 1 period across portions of MN/IA and vicinity, but a substantial
severe threat may evolve later today somewhere in the vicinity of
IA and southern MN, and potentially further south into the mid MS
Valley. Substantial midlevel flow will move into MN and northern IA
in conjunction with a shortwave trough, while a seasonally strong
low-level jet will impinge on this region from the SSW. Strong to
extreme buoyancy will develop south of any convective outflow this
afternoon, as steep midlevel lapse rates over spread a very warm and
moist boundary layer. The timing, intensity, and location of any
early morning thunderstorm clusters and subsequent redevelopment
remain highly uncertain, however. Possible scenarios include one
or more progressive MCSs capable of damaging wind swaths, and also
supercell development along outflow boundaries, capable of large
hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes. An upgrade to severe
probabilities in subsequent outlooks is possible if the potential
scenarios become clearer.
Further north across northern MN, shear profiles will be quite
favorable for organized convection, but the amount of available
instability will largely depend on convective development (or lack
thereof) further south. If a substantial MCS impacts southern MN
during the day, that will likely limit destabilization further north,
but if the environment across northern MN remains mostly undisturbed,
then there is some potential for organized clusters and perhaps
a couple of supercells capable of large hail, damaging wind, and
perhaps a tornado.
...Northern High Plains... While the northern High Plains will
generally be between shortwave troughs for most of the day, a belt
of stronger midlevel westerly flow will persist across this region,
with some potential for winds to veer to southeasterly during the
afternoon, maintaining sufficient low-level moisture for moderate
buoyancy by late afternoon into the Black Hills and eastern WY. Some
uncertainty remains regarding storm coverage remains in this region,
but there is some potential for a couple of supercells with an
attendant risk of large hail and severe wind gusts.
...Central High Plains... Widely scattered thunderstorm development
is possible late this afternoon across in the hot and well-mixed
regime from southwest NE into western KS. Shear will be weaker
compared to areas further north, but sufficient to support some
modest storm organization. Steep low-level lapse rates will support
a threat of isolated severe wind gusts.
...Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast... As the
remnants of T.C. Barry get caught up in the westerlies, some
enhancement to the low/mid-level flow is expected later today.
Midlevel lapse rates will be weak throughout the region, but
substantial heating of a moist airmass (PW values generally
between 1.5 - 2 inches) will result in the development of moderate
buoyancy from the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic and portions of
the Northeast. Widespread convection will move across this region
this afternoon into this evening, with thunderstorm clusters capable
of locally damaging wind possible. The best overlap of shear and
buoyancy is forecast to occur from PA into southern New England,
where the greatest relative threat of damaging wind is currently
forecast. Flow/shear will be weaker into the Mid Atlantic, but
still sufficient for wet microburst potential given strong heating
and steep low-level lapse rates.
..Dean/Squitieri.. 07/17/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237
AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may develop across parts of the
northern Plains and Great Lakes region Thursday.
...Northern Plains/Great Lakes...
Mid-level heights are expected to gradually rise across the upper
Midwest during the day2 period as an elongated ridge extending from
the southwestern US into the Carolinas begins to dominate much of
the CONUS. This pattern evolution will force seasonally strong 500mb
flow near the international border from WA/OR into northern MN.
Latest guidance suggests convection will be ongoing at the start of
the day2 period over WI/IL along the nose of a LLJ. This activity
should be a continuation of an overnight complex that forms over
the Plains ahead of a weak short-wave trough. Remnants of this MCS
should propagate downstream during the day and it's not entirely
clear whether it will weaken or regenerate as boundary layer warms.
Have maintained 5% severe probs across portions of the Great Lakes
to account for some early-day threat and perhaps warm-advection
driven convection during the latter half of the period.
Upstream, strong short-wave trough is forecast to eject into eastern
MT by 19/00z with focused zone of ascent expected to translate
into southern SK/northwestern ON in association with exit region
of upper jet. Southern influence of this short wave will flatten
the ridge over ND which should shunt a surface front into the
central part of the state by late afternoon. Strong surface heating
across western/northern ND should lead to weakening inhibition and
isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop during the evening
hours. This activity will propagate toward northwestern MN during
the overnight hours.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Darrow.. 07/17/2019
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146
AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may develop across the upper
Midwest into the upper Great Lakes.
...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
Large-scale pattern will become increasingly hostile towards
organized deep convection later this week as upper ridging will
dominate much of the CONUS from the southwestern desert region
into the Middle Atlantic. Near the international border, strong
west-southwesterly flow will extend across MT into northern MN.
Within this flow a notable short-wave trough will eject into ON
which will allow a surface front to settle into WI by mid afternoon.
With neutral-weak height rises expected along the boundary south of
Lake Superior, it's not entirely clear how robust convection will be
along the wind shift. Latest model guidance does not warm surface
readings enough for parcels to reach their convective temperatures
and large-scale forcing for ascent is expected to be negligible.
However, a reservoir of significant instability will extend across
the warm sector such that if storms develop there may be some severe
threat. NAM allows convection to develop by early evening then
drift south across WI. Will introduce 5% severe probs to account
for this possibility.
..Darrow.. 07/17/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...Synopsis... The upper-level shortwave trough will de-amplify
across the western CONUS, with more zonal flow prevailing throughout
the period. Nonetheless, a relatively broad belt of stronger
mid-level flow aloft will prevail across portions of the northern
Great Basin, northward, particularly during the daytime hours,
where boundary layer mixing may promote the downward transport of
the stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of the Great Basin and
central Rockies will be prone to windy and dry conditions favorable
for wildfire-spread potential.
...Portions of the Great Basin into the central Rockies... By peak
afternoon heating/boundary layer mixing, widespread 15-25 mph
sustained southwesterly surface winds and 10-20% RH are expected
across a broad portion of the Great Basin, into southwestern
Wyoming. Fuels are at least modestly receptive to fire spread in
these areas, and an elevated area is in place. Within the elevated
area, locally critical conditions, with 20+ mph winds, are likely
in the Wyoming/Utah/Colorado border vicinity.
At least locally to potentially widespread critical conditions,
with 20-25 mph winds and near single-digit RH, are possible across
southeast Nevada into southwest Utah according to multiple members of
model guidance. Fuels are also near-critical to critically receptive
to fire spread. Currently, some lack in model agreement in critical
conditions across this area, along with upper-level support slowly
departing the region, precludes a critical condition at this time,
though a critical delineation may be needed in future outlooks. By
evening, boundary layer cooling and decoupling of the stronger flow
aloft will temper the wildfire-spread threat with time.
..Squitieri.. 07/17/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...Synopsis... A slight amplification of the broader zonal mid-level
flow is expected across the Pacific Northwest on Day 2/Thursday. With
the development of the mid-level shortwave trough over the northwest
CONUS, a mass-response in the surface wind fields may be expected,
with downslope flow contributing to dry, windy conditions across
parts of the Pacific Northwest, east of the Cascades.
...Portions of the Pacific Northwest... Afternoon boundary-layer
mixing, along with downslope flow along the lee of the northern
Cascades, may promote 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds
amidst 15-25% RH. Fine fuels have recently become marginally
receptive to fire spread, and given the aforementioned surface
wind/RH conditions, an elevated area was delineated.
...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Patchy elevated
conditions may occur across the area, both with areas of locally
stronger boundary layer mixing, and in terrain favoring areas
(predominantly in central Utah, northeast into southern Wyoming). At
least localized 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds,
amidst critically low RH, are expected atop fuels receptive to fire
spread. Currently, lack of upper-level support and better agreement
among model guidance members precludes an elevated delineation at
this time.
..Squitieri.. 07/17/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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