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W7EES > SWPC 15.07.19 04:13z 50 Lines 2015 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 10154_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<LU9DCE<LU3DVN<N3HYM<KF5JRV<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 190714/2321Z 10154@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul, 17 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 489 km/s at 14/0933Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
13/2201Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
14/1956Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4208 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (15 Jul, 16 Jul) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jul 067
Predicted 15 Jul-17 Jul 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 14 Jul 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 007/010-011/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/20
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 35/35/30
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