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W7EES > SWPC 14.07.19 13:13z 50 Lines 2002 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 10146_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<LU9DCE<LU3DVN<N3HYM<KF5JRV<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 190714/1147Z 10146@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (14 Jul, 15 Jul, 16 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 496 km/s at 12/2236Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
13/0741Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
13/0741Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6421 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Jul) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jul 066
Predicted 14 Jul-16 Jul 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 13 Jul 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 006/005-007/010-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/30
Minor Storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 15/35/35
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