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W7EES > SWPC 28.09.20 01:40z 51 Lines 2177 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 23331_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<F3KT<F4DUR<LU4ECL<JE7YGF<JH4XSY<
N3HYM<W7EES
Sent: 200927/2344Z 23331@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.20
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
26/0038Z from Region 2773 (N27E18). There are currently 0 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27
Sep, 28 Sep, 29 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 585 km/s at 26/1707Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 26/1135Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 26/1202Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 3802 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (27 Sep, 28
Sep) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (29 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Sep 073
Predicted 27 Sep-29 Sep 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 26 Sep 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep 017/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep 018/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep 013/018-015/022-028/040
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/45/30
Minor Storm 25/25/40
Major-severe storm 05/05/25
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor Storm 25/20/15
Major-severe storm 60/65/80
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