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W7EES > SWPC 15.09.19 00:34z 47 Lines 1880 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 11276_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<F3KT<CX2SA<N3HYM<KF5JRV<
W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 190915/0015Z 11276@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (15 Sep, 16 Sep, 17 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 512 km/s at 13/2118Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3102 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (15 Sep,
16 Sep, 17 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Sep 069
Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 14 Sep 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 006/006-006/006-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/20
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