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W7EES > SWPC 13.09.19 12:27z 53 Lines 1981 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 11255_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<UA6ADV<CX2SA<N3HYM<N9LCF<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 190913/1153Z @:W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM #:11255 BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (13 Sep, 14 Sep, 15 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 540 km/s at 12/0649Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 12/1806Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
12/0831Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5279 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Sep, 14 Sep, 15
Sep).
III. Event probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Sep 069
Predicted 13 Sep-15 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 12 Sep 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep 004/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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