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LU9DCE > SOLAR 15.01.20 04:09z 72 Lines 2872 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7383_LU9DCE
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Subj: SOLAR GEO ACTIVITY 15 01
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<DB0RES<ON0AR<GB7CIP<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 200115/0401Z 7383@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SLACKWARE LINUX - LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2020 Jan 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 14 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan, 17 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 375 km/s at 14/0839Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
14/0754Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
14/1831Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 874 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jan 072
Predicted 15 Jan-17 Jan 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 14 Jan 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 007/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/05/05
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/10/10
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If the weather is extremely bad, church attendance will be down. If the
weather is extremely good, church attendance will be down. If the bulletin
covers are in short supply, however, church attendance will exceed all
expectations.
-- Reverend Chichester
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