| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 23.05.19 07:13z 388 Lines 20586 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25190_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 23 05
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 190523/0700Z 25190@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
28.125 USB @ 300 BAUD --- HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
WW 215 TORNADO IL IN MO 230325Z - 231000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 215
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Illinois Far northwest Indiana
East-central Missouri
* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 1025 PM
until 500 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense
tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated
significant gusts to 80 mph possible Isolated large hail events to
1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Clusters of supercells and linear bowing segments should
consolidate and spread east overnight. Damaging winds and a few
tornadoes are the primary hazards.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute
miles east and west of a line from 40 miles south southwest of
Saint Louis MO to 70 miles north northwest of Danville IL. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 212...WW 213...WW 214...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts
to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm
motion vector 26040.
...Grams
WW 214 TORNADO AR KS MO OK 230245Z - 230900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 214
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 945 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Far northwest Arkansas Far southeast
Kansas Southwest to central Missouri Northeast Oklahoma
* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 945 PM
until 400 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple
intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very
large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging
wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Supercells capable of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging
winds should persist into the early overnight period. With time,
the overall tornado threat will likely decay.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
north and south of a line from 20 miles west northwest of Tulsa OK
to 75 miles northeast of Springfield MO. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 211...WW 212...WW 213...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 26035.
...Grams
WW 0215 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 215
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE COU TO
35 NW ALN TO 15 SE SPI TO 15 NW DEC TO 5 WNW BMI TO 30 WSW MMO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0746.
..LEITMAN..05/23/19
ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...LOT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 215
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC005-013-019-021-027-029-035-039-041-045-049-051-053-061-063-
075-083-091-105-113-115-117-119-121-133-135-139-147-163-167-173-
183-189-197-230740-
IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOND CALHOUN CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN
CLINTON COLES CUMBERLAND DE WITT
DOUGLAS EDGAR EFFINGHAM FAYETTE FORD
GREENE GRUNDY IROQUOIS JERSEY
KANKAKEE LIVINGSTON MCLEAN MACON MACOUPIN
MADISON MARION MONROE MONTGOMERY
MOULTRIE PIATT ST. CLAIR SANGAMON SHELBY
VERMILION WASHINGTON WILL
INC007-073-089-111-127-230740-
WW 0214 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 214
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W TUL TO
20 WNW TUL TO 15 ESE BVO TO 30 E BVO TO JLN TO 30 N SGF TO 35 W COU.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0745.
..LEITMAN..05/23/19
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...ICT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 214
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-230740-
AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL
MOC009-029-043-057-059-077-097-105-109-119-125-131-141-145-161-
167-169-209-213-225-230740-
MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY CAMDEN CHRISTIAN DADE
DALLAS GREENE JASPER LACLEDE
LAWRENCE MCDONALD MARIES MILLER MORGAN
NEWTON PHELPS POLK PULASKI
STONE TANEY WEBSTER
WW 0213 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 213
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE IRK TO
25 S BRL TO 35 N PIA TO 20 WNW MMO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0744
..WENDT..05/23/19
ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...ILX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 213
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC001-009-017-057-067-095-109-123-125-129-137-143-149-155-169-
171-179-203-230340-
IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BROWN CASS FULTON
HANCOCK KNOX MCDONOUGH MARSHALL
MASON MENARD MORGAN PEORIA PIKE
PUTNAM SCHUYLER SCOTT TAZEWELL
WOODFORD
MOC007-019-027-051-111-127-135-137-139-163-173-205-230340-
MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDRAIN BOONE CALLAWAY COLE
LEWIS MARION MONITEAU MONROE
MONTGOMERY PIKE RALLS SHELBY
MD 0746 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 215... FOR EAST-CENTRAL MO INTO
CENTRAL IL AND NORTHWEST IN
Mesoscale Discussion 0746 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019
Areas affected...east-central MO into central IL and northwest IN
Concerning...Tornado Watch 215...
Valid 230623Z - 230800Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 215 continues.
SUMMARY...A damaging-wind threat will continue across central IL
and perhaps into northwest IN as a mature bow echo shifts northeast
across the region. Further southwest toward, and just north of,
the St. Louis metro area, supercells with a threat for damaging
wind and tornadoes are possible in the short term before upscale
growth occurs into the early morning.
DISCUSSION...A damaging bow echo has recently tracked through
Springfield IL where a 58 kt wind gust was reported. This bowing
segment, and the trailing squall line extending southwest to
just north of the St. Louis metro area will continue to pose a
damaging-wind threat across central IL and perhaps into northwest
IN. MLCIN is weak across central IL where strong instability remains
across the warm sector. However, the apex/bookend vortex is tracking
into stronger inhibition and decreasing instability toward northwest
IN and will likely outpace the northward retreating warm front. This
should limit downstream severe potential across northern and central
IN with time, but a severe threat could persist outside WW 215 and
a downstream watch may be needed.
Further southwest across east-central MO, a few supercells were still
evident, mainly across Warren Co where a tornado warning was recently
issued by WFO LSX. VWP data from LSX and ILX 88-Ds indicated modest
low level hodographs with surface winds more veered than farther
southwest across southwest MO. However, vertical shear is more
than supportive of sustaining supercells, especially in the short
term, and as such, a threat for tornadoes continues. As inhibition
slowly increases and cells interact with outflow from the bowing
line across central IL, upscale growth potential should increase,
with a transition toward a greater threat for damaging wind gusts
and perhaps a few mesovortex-related spin-ups.
..Leitman.. 05/23/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 39689089 40419006 41558820 41728682 41648624 41318620
40718647 39488763 38508893 38208944 38209135 38349162 38699165
39689089
MD 0745 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 214... FOR NORTHEAST OK INTO
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0745 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019
Areas affected...northeast OK into southwest and central MO
Concerning...Tornado Watch 214...
Valid 230559Z - 230730Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 214 continues.
SUMMARY...Tornado and damaging wind threat will continue for several
more hours across WW 214.
DISCUSSION...An interesting evolution of a trio of supercells
over far northeast OK is currently underway late this evening. A
tornado was recently confirmed by weather spotters with the leading
supercell in southeast Craig County. The trailing two cells are
likely at least slightly elevated as MLCIN increases slowly this
evening, and as they track behind the outflow of the lead cell. VWP
data from the SGF and INX 88-Ds continue to show impressive vertical
shear with large, curved low level hodographs resulting in 0-3km SRH
in excess of 500 m2/s2. This should continue to support organized
convection as the airmass remains unstable downstream with MLCAPE
around 1000-2000 J/kg. In the short term, this will continue to
support a threat for supercell tornadoes roughly along the I-44
corridor from northeast OK into southwest MO.
As boundary-layer inhibition continues to slowly increase into the
overnight hours, a strong low-level jet oriented roughly parallel
to storm-motion vector should tend to support some upscale growth
potential with damaging winds becoming more of a concern overnight
into early morning.
..Leitman.. 05/23/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 36869652 36999495 37099461 37249422 37399397 37589377
37979347 38309318 38489273 38489237 38279202 37939189 37639192
36939276 36659311 36269390 35949494 35799571 35769611 35839651
36069664 36549674 36869652
Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN
OK 1143 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2019
...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the portions of the
southern and central Plains this afternoon and evening...
* LOCATIONS... Southwest into central Missouri Southeast Kansas
Northeast Oklahoma
* HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail,
some baseball size Scattered damaging winds
* SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon
into evening from central and northeast Oklahoma into Missouri and
central Illinois. Tornadoes, large/damaging hail and severe gusts
all are possible.
Preparedness actions...
Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch
means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the
next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area,
move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room
on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.
..Marsh.. 05/22/2019
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107
AM CDT Thu May 23 2019
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS
OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD INTO KANSAS AND ACROSS PORTIONS
OF PENNSYLVANIA AND MARYLAND...
...SUMMARY... Severe storms with large hail, damaging wind
and tornadoes will be possible over a part of the central and
southern Plains Thursday and from the Ohio Valley into the northern
Mid-Atlantic.
...Southern and central Plains... Convection should be ongoing
or just developing at the beginning of the forecast period across
portions of the TX/OK Panhandles as moisture retreats westward
south of a weak surface boundary in the area. Over time, these
storms should grow upscale into one or two linear complexes while
migrating east-northeastward toward south-central Kansas during
the afternoon. The surface boundary will also evolve into a warm
front and migrate north toward Kansas ahead of the complex - in
part due to 35-45 kt southerly flow at 850 hPa. By afternoon,
moderate to strong instability in the pre-convective warm sector
should support a damaging-wind and tornado threat along the leading
edge of the expected linear complex(es), with this threat shifting
into eastern Kansas during the evening.
A convectively modified surface boundary should stall in the general
vicinity of the Texas Panhandle and adjacent northwest Oklahoma
through the afternoon. Shortwave troughs migrating through the
southeastern extent of an amplifying mid-level trough in the
Southwest will interact with the strongly unstable warm sector
and result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms. These storms
should exist in an environment containing strong deep shear and weak
mid-level inhibition, with strengthening low-level shear developing
toward 23-02Z in response to a 40-50 kt 850 hPa jet stream across
western Oklahoma. Cells should have a propensity to rotate and
produce all modes of severe, with the tornado threat maximized
during this time. The trajectory of these storms should take them
northeastward toward and over the remnant cold pool from earlier
MCS activity. With widespread convection expected, some upscale
growth may also occur across the eastern Texas Panhandle and western
Oklahoma late in the forecast period, with a resultant damaging wind,
hail, and isolated tornado threat overnight. Additional storms are
expected to develop as far southwest as southeastern New Mexico
and adjacent portions of the Texas South Plains overnight, with
more isolated activity expected southward toward the Big Bend area.
...Upper Ohio Valley eastward toward New York, Pennsylvania, and
Maryland... The forecast in this region will be somewhat complicated
by mid-morning to mid-day convection expected to traverse the region
from west to east - particularly across Pennsylvania. Nevertheless,
models indicate the development of weak to moderate instability
ahead of a cold front that will migrate southward across the region.
This destabilization will occur amidst a strongly sheared airmass,
with 30-40 kt westerly 850 hPa flow veering and strengthening to
northwesterly aloft. Convection is expected to evolve into a series
of mixed modes (both linear and cellular) with tornadoes, hail,
and damaging wind gusts all possible. Convection will migrate
southeastward toward Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey during
the evening before waning with near-surface stabilization late in
the period.
..Cook.. 05/23/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258
AM CDT Thu May 23 2019
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...
...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms will be possible on Friday
from a portion of the upper Mississippi Valley region into a part
of the central and southern Plains.
...Synopsis...
Shortwave trough initially over the northern Plains early Friday
will advance northeast, reaching the upper MS Valley region by
evening. Attendant surface low will move from the Dakotas into
northern MN with trailing cold front extending southwest through
northwest IA, NE and western KS by late day. A warm front will move
northeast through the upper MS Valley, and by early evening should
extend from the surface low in MN through the southern Great Lakes
and into the Ohio Valley. Dryline will reside near the NM/West
TX border.
...Eastern Kansas through the upper Mississippi Valley region...
Richer low-level moisture with mid-upper 60s F dewpoints will advect
northeast through the mid-upper MS Valley warm sector during the day,
and this should contribute to a corridor of moderate instability
(1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) as the boundary layer warms. Some storms
may be ongoing on cool side of the warm front as well as farther
west across KS in vicinity of the cold front. The cold frontal storms
should diminish early in the day, but additional storms will probably
develop along the cold front or residual outflow boundaries as the
atmosphere destabilizes during the afternoon. Flow in the lowest 3 km
is forecast to weaken and the strongest mid-upper winds will likely
remain north of the warm sector which could be limiting factors
for a more robust severe threat. Nevertheless, winds aloft will
be sufficient for 45-55 kt largely unidirectional effective bulk
shear. Where boundary layer destabilization occurs, the parameter
space should promote some risk for strong to severe storms with
large hail and damaging wind the main threats. A conditional risk
for tornadoes will exist especially if boundary layer recovery can
occur in IA and northern IL where low-level hodographs will be more
supportive along and just south of the warm front.
...Southern High Plains area...
It still appears some storms might be ongoing from a portion of
west TX into OK, but should weaken with time. Assuming most of
the initial storms diminish early, some boundary-layer recovery is
expected upstream as richer low-level moisture advects northwest into
west TX beneath steeper lapse rates, supporting up to 2000-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE. A belt of 40-50 kt mid-level winds will persist over this
region, with sufficient vertical shear for supercells. The dryline
should mix into western TX and could possibly interact with any
residual, modifying outflow boundaries from morning storms. Some
strong to severe storms including a few supercells will be possible
during the afternoon and early evening along the dryline as well
as farther east in association with residual outflow boundaries.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight
..Dial.. 05/23/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...Synopsis... A mid-level jet will round the base of the Great
Basin upper low today. The strongest mid-level flow will move across
New Mexico into the central Plains; however, the jet core will
be downstream of the most receptive fuels during peak afternoon
heating. At the surface, a southern High Plains lee trough will
foster an enhanced pressure gradient. Elevated fire weather concerns
will likely occur across portions of southern/central New Mexico
and the Trans-Pecos. Surface wind speeds will range from 15-20
mph in southern portions of the highlighted area to 20-30 mph
in northeastern portions, given the proximity to the mid-level
jet. Afternoon RH will fall to 5-20%. Fuels in central/northern
New Mexico have remained marginally receptive to fire spread due in
large part to periodic bouts of precipitation. For that reason, no
critical area is justifiable despite soundly critical meteorological
conditions.
..Wendt.. 05/23/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
La mia famiglia viveva in una tale miseria che quando finalmente siamo
diventati poveri abbiamo fatto una festa.
-- Max Greggio
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
