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LU9DCE > ALERT 30.03.19 07:04z 245 Lines 13016 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 20738_LU9DCE
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 30 03
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<VE3UIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 190330/0700Z 20738@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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WW 35 SEVERE TSTM AR MO OK 300555Z - 301300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 35 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sat
Mar 30 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Arkansas
Southwest Missouri Central and northeast Oklahoma
* Effective this Saturday morning from 1255 AM until 800 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated
very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated
damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible
SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms are forming across northwest
Oklahoma and the storms should increase in coverage and intensity
through the early morning hours. Large hail will be the primary
severe threat with the initial storms across central Oklahoma,
though isolated damaging gusts will become possible later and
farther east across extreme northeast Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas
and southwest Missouri.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles northwest of
Fort Sill OK to 40 miles east northeast of Fayetteville AR. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26040.
...Thompson
WW 0035 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0035 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
MD 0248 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF
OK INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN KS...SOUTHWESTERN MO...AND NORTHWESTERN AR
Mesoscale Discussion 0248 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019
Areas affected...Parts of OK into far southeastern KS...southwestern
MO...and northwestern AR
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 300430Z - 300700Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated large hail may occur overnight as thunderstorms
increase in coverage and intensity. While not immediately likely,
severe thunderstorm watch issuance may be needed by 1-2 AM CDT.
DISCUSSION...04Z surface analysis shows a 1008 mb low centered
along the KS/MO border near Pittsburg, KS. A cold front extends
southwestward from this low across central/western OK into the TX
Panhandle, while a warm front is located over parts of southwestern
MO. A shortwave trough over the central High Plains will shift
eastward overnight. At least scattered thunderstorms appear likely
to develop by 06-07Z (1-2 AM CDT) as large-scale ascent associated
with the shortwave trough overspreads much of OK and vicinity.
Initial convective development appears to be underway across the
eastern TX Panhandle and northwestern OK at 0420Z with cooling of
cloud tops noted on infrared satellite imagery. These thunderstorms
will likely remain elevated above a stable near-surface layer
as they move eastward across OK and eventually southwestern
MO/northwestern AR overnight. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 7.5
to 8.5 C/km present on 00Z area soundings are supporting MUCAPE of
1000-2000 J/kg across much of OK. Around 40-50 kt of effective bulk
shear in the cloud-bearing layer should initially support supercells
with an isolated large hail threat.
Convective mode becomes less clear with eastward extent across OK,
as storms may have a tendency to organize into one or more line
segments as they interact with the cold front. Gusty winds may also
occur, but downdrafts will probably struggle to reach the surface
given the strong low-level inversion. Convective trends will be
monitored over the next several hours for possible watch issuance.
..Gleason/Guyer.. 03/30/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 34629951 34859985 35279994 36949645 37189543 37469415
37279334 36479335 36079357 35459445 35099541 34889619 34699701
34559808 34509881 34629951
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254
AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST MS...NORTHWEST AL AND PARTS OF CENTRAL TN...
...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening across a portion of the lower Mississippi,
Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Damaging wind should be the primary
threat, though hail also is possible.
...Synopsis... An upper trough will deepen and shift eastward
across the Midwest today. A cold front extending from northern IN
southwestward into north TX will shift eastward through the period,
extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the central Gulf Coast by Sunday
morning. Elevated convection will be ongoing this morning on the
cool side of the frontal boundary in isentropic ascent from eastern
OK into southern IN. Further south, an elevated mixed layer from TX
into the Lower MS Valley vicinity will limit convection for most of
the morning across the Deep South to central KY. Modest boundary
layer moisture with dewpoints from the upper 50s to lower 60s F will
extend from the lower MS Valley toward the TN Valley, with low to
mid-50s F northward toward the lower OH Valley vicinity. The EML is
expected to erode by mid-to-late afternoon as stronger forcing along
the front encroaches on better warm sector environment. Strong to
severe storms are possible along the front from the afternoon into
the evening, with hail and strong wind gusts being the main concern.
...Lower MS Valley to Middle TN...
Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 60s F north to
mid 70s F south. This will lead to mixing of modest boundary layer
moisture and only weak destabilization (MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg)
forecast. Convection is expected to develop as increasing ascent
along the front aids in erosion of the weak EML. Higher cloud
bases (LCLs around 2-3 kft) resulting from boundary layer mixing
will aid in development of some strong, possibly damaging, wind
gusts as low level flow increases to 35+ kt around 2-4 kft. Nearly
unidirectional vertical shear also will favor linear/bowing line
segments, though some weak directional shear from south-central
TN into central MS could result in some rotating structures in
strongest storms. This could further enhance wind damage potential
via mesovortex processes. Midlevel lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km also
are expected to support severe hail in stronger updrafts. Tornado
potential appears low at this time given poor quality boundary
layer moisture and lack of stronger low level directional shear.
...Western/Central KY Vicinity...
Boundary layer moisture will be even more meager further north, and
250-500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast. However, stronger forcing along
the front should still aid in development of some semi-organized
linear structures. Where pockets of stronger heating can occur,
40-50 kt winds around 1.5 kft could aid in strong wind gusts and
modest midlevel lapse rates around 6.5-7.0 C/km may support some
small hail in stronger updrafts. Overall threat is expected to
remain marginal in the absence of better low level moisture and
stronger destabilization.
..Leitman/Wendt.. 03/30/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141
PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe threat appears low Sunday.
...Discussion...
Dominant surface high is forecast to settle into the southern US
during the day2 period in the wake of a strong short-wave trough
that will eject across the OH/TN Valley region. Early in the period
weak convection should be ongoing within a post-frontal environment
from the lower MS Valley into the southern Appalachians. However,
most of this activity will struggle to produce lightning due
to weak buoyancy. Later in the day surface heating ahead of the
wind shift should contribute to somewhat higher instability and
near-surface based storms are possible as the front surges toward
the coast. Even so, severe thunderstorms are not expected primarily
due to weak instability.
Farther west, strong mid-level jet is forecast to dig southeast
across AZ into the Big Bend of TX late. Exit region of this jet
should enhance large-scale forcing for ascent and steep lapse rates
are expected to support weak convection. Isolated lightning may
develop within this activity.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Darrow.. 03/30/2019
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128
AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected near the Gulf
Coast and the northern California Coast Monday.
...Gulf Coast...
Strong mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to dig southeast
across the southern Plains to the upper TX Coast by 02/00z.
Subsequently, this feature should eject along the central Gulf
Coast by the end of the period. In response to this feature, a
surface low should evolve over the central Gulf basin during the
latter half of the period which will then track northeast along a
stalled synoptic boundary and remain well west of the FL Peninsula
through sunrise Tuesday morning. Even so, isolated thunderstorms
are expected to develop near the coast along the cool side of the
boundary. Large-scale forcing for ascent will be enhanced within
the exit region of a pronounced mid-level jet which is expected to
aid elevated convection from west to east through the period.
...Northern CA Coast...
Notable short-wave trough is expected to approach the northern CA
Coast Tuesday evening. A corridor of moisture/weak buoyancy should
extend across northern CA ahead of this feature in conjunction
with a weak frontal zone. Forecast soundings suggest the strongest
convection could produce a few lightning strikes.
..Darrow.. 03/30/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will depart the central Plains and
phase with a broader trough amplifying over the upper-Midwest/Great
Lakes region. In the wake of the upper-level disturbance, a surface
anticyclone will build into the Plains, driving cooler air as far as
the northern Gulf of Mexico. The post-frontal airmass in the southern
Plains will generally be unfavorable for any fire weather concerns.
However, some guidance suggests possible elevated fire weather
concerns in the Rio Grande Valley of West Texas. Beyond confidence
in this scenario being relatively low, these conditions will likely
be spatiotemporally limited enough that no area will be highlighted
at this time.
..Wendt.. 03/30/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A compact mid-level low will become an open wave
and progress southeastward from the Four Corners to the southern
High Plains on D2/Sunday. Cool/moist post-frontal air will be in
place from the previous day which will help to curtail fire weather
concerns. A few locations may experience 15-20 mph surface winds,
but RH will likely remain too high. No areas will be highlighted
for this outlook.
..Wendt.. 03/30/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Excellent day for putting Slinkies on an escalator.
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