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LU9DCE > ALERT 29.03.19 11:05z 161 Lines 8768 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 20655_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 29 03
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<LU3DVN<LU9DCE
Sent: 190329/1104Z 20655@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SOPORTE TECNICO - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241
AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
OK...SOUTHEAST KS...AND SOUTHWEST MO...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of
northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, and southwest Missouri
today. Large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary threats.
...Synopsis... Current water vapor imagery shows a well-defined
shortwave trough traversing the Four Corners region. This shortwave
(and attendant mid-level speed max) are expected to continue
eastward, reaching the central Plains by Friday afternoon. Early
morning surface analysis places a low over central IL with a cold
front extending southwestward across central MO, southeast KS,
north-central/western OK, and into the TX South Plains. This front
is largely expected to remain in place through at least the early
afternoon before then surging southeastward in response to the
progression of the previously mentioned shortwave trough.
...Southeast KS...Northeast OK...Southern/Central MO... Showers and
thunderstorms are expected early in the period as warm-air advection
persists into the frontal zone. Vertical shear is expected to be
relatively weak but steep lapse rates will likely help support strong
updrafts capable of hail. Mid-level flow will increase throughout
the day, as will large-scale forcing for ascent, with both of
these factors helping to strengthen and organize thunderstorms that
develop in the afternoon. Additionally, interaction with the frontal
boundary extending across central MO could augment updrafts. Most
of the storms that develop are expected to be elevated, leading to
hail as the primary severe threat. Even so, a few strong downbursts
could reach the surface, particularly across northeast OK where
low-level moisture is greater.
...Central/Southeast OK... Dewpoints south of the front are
currently in the low to mid 50s, with the exception of north-central
OK where slightly higher dewpoints exist, largely as a result of
moisture convergence and shallow mixing near the triple point. Some
additional moisture advection is possible throughout the day but
the expectation is for dewpoints to remain below 60s north of
the Red River. This limited low-level moisture coupled with warm
temperatures aloft (16 deg C at 850 mb on the 00Z OUN sounding)
and the more northern trajectory of the shortwave trough (and
its attendant forcing for ascent) suggests the probability of
open warm-sector convection is low. Continued convergence near
mesoscale features, in particular the triple point, may be enough
to cool the mid-level temperatures enough to foster isolated deep
convection. Steep mid-level lapse rates support a condition hail
risk with any sustained updrafts. Warm-temperatures aloft are
expected to limit thunderstorms along the front.
...Eastern CO... Upslope flow coupled with steep lapse rates and
strong forcing for ascent will likely result in thunderstorms
during the afternoon, despite relatively dry and cool surface
conditions. Southerly low-level flow beneath strong westerlies aloft
result in vertical shear sufficient to support storm organization
and the resulting potential for isolated instances of large hail.
..Mosier/Wendt.. 03/29/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103
PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE MID-SOUTH...
...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
on Saturday across parts of the Mid-South. Damaging gusts appear
to be the primary hazard.
...Mid-South...
Great Basin short-wave trough is forecast to eject across the
four-corners region day1 before ejecting east into the TN Valley
Saturday. Southern influence of this feature is expected to enhance
large-scale forcing for ascent across portions of the Mid-South
along a pronounced front as it surges into TN-MS-LA during the
afternoon. Latest model guidance is not particularly aggressive
in destabilizing this region but some boundary-layer heating is
expected across the warm sector immediately ahead of the wind shift.
Forecast soundings suggest deep convection should develop by mid
afternoon, especially along the front, as temperatures warm into the
lower 70s. Early-day inhibition should weaken by 21z and frontal
forcing is expected to encourage robust convection that will be
adequately sheared for some organization. At this time it appears
locally strong wind gusts are the primary threat.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: 5%
- Marginal Hail: <5% - None
..Darrow.. 03/29/2019
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140
AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe threat appears low Sunday.
...Discussion...
Large-scale pattern is not expected to favor organized severe
thunderstorms Sunday. Even so, isolated thunderstorms are expected
to develop across portions of the US from the Four-Corners region of
the interior west, across southwest TX, and the Gulf Coast/Southeast.
Early in the period, weak buoyancy is expected to reside along the
Gulf Coast into the Carolinas ahead of a pronounced cold front.
Entrance region of mid-level jet could enhance convective potential
along/just behind the wind shift as it surges into the northern
Gulf basin and off the southeastern coast.
Upstream, strong mid-level speed max is forecast to dig southeast
across AZ into the Big Bend region of west TX during the overnight
hours before approaching south-central TX late. Along/north of
this jet, steepening lapse rates will contribute to instability
sufficient for convection. Lightning should be noted with the
strongest updrafts. As the jet approaches the Edwards Plateau
over TX, strengthening warm advection profiles suggest elevated
thunderstorms will evolve after midnight within exit region of
the jet.
..Darrow.. 03/29/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO...
...Synopsis... A low amplitude shortwave trough will impact
portions of the central Rockies/Plains today. Strong mid-level flow
will exist across northern/eastern New Mexico as well as southern
Colorado. A lee trough will help to enhance surface flow and, along
with mid-level flow mixing to down during the afternoon, induce 20-25
mph surface winds across portions of eastern New Mexico and adjacent
southeastern Colorado. Downslope winds across the region will drop
afternoon RH to 5-15% within the highlighted critical area. A few
areas of extremely critical conditions may occur, especially beneath
the mid-level jet. Surrounding the critical area, elevated conditions
will exist across much of New Mexico and into the southern High
Plains. Southern New Mexico will likely see critical meteorological
conditions (winds of 20-25 mph and afternoon RH of 5-15%); however,
fuels in this area remain on the margins of receptiveness to fire
spread. Farther east into the southern High Plains/Trans-Pecos,
winds will generally remain 15-20 mph given their displacement from
the mid-level jet. A cluster of storms from the previous day near
Midland, TX and points southwestward may impact fuel moisture even
into the afternoon, though coverage of precipitation was minimal
enough to maintain the elevated within the Trans-Pecos and vicinity.
..Wendt.. 03/29/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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