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LU9DCE > ALERT 23.09.21 14:43z 77 Lines 3288 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5808_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 23-SEP.21
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<PE1RRR<KA1VSC<LU9DCE
Sent: 210923/1431Z 5808@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
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Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:01:02 +0000
Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:01:02 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 23 02:01:02 UTC 2021.
Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:00:12 +0000
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Sep 23 02:01:02 UTC 2021.
Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:00:10 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 PM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with a marginal tornado and wind-damage
threat will be possible this evening into tonight from the central
Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. A few strong wind gusts may also
occur in the Carolinas this evening.
...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a high-amplitude upper-level
trough located over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley with
south-southwesterly mid-level flow over much of the Northeast. At
the surface, a 1003 mb low is located in far northwestern
Pennsylvania. A pre-frontal trough extends southeastward from the
surface low into west-central Pennsylvania and then southward into
central Virginia. Thunderstorms are ongoing along and near the
pre-frontal trough. Ahead of the storms, surface dewpoints are in
the 65 to 70 F range and weak instability is present. The strongest
instability is located from southeast Pennsylvania southward into
far eastern Virginia where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE to be in the
500 to 750 J/kg range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP near Washington
D.C. has strong speed shear and veering winds with height in the
lowest 1 km. This is resulting in 0-1 km shear in the 35 to 40 kt
range suggesting that a marginal tornado threat could develop as the
thunderstorms along the pre-frontal trough move eastward. The
marginal tornado threat could affect much of Pennsylvania, Maryland
and central Virginia along and near the axis of a 40 to 55 knot
low-level jet. Any storm that rotates may also produce strong wind
gusts.
...Carolinas...
The latest surface analysis shows a pre-frontal trough located
across the central Carolinas. Thunderstorms are ongoing near the
pre-frontal trough along and near interstate-74 and then extending
southwestward to near Sumter. Ahead of the storms, surface dewpoints
are in the mid 70s F and MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 1000 to
1500 J/kg range. This combined with steep low-level lapse rates may
be enough for a marginal wind-damage threat for a few more hours
this evening.
..Broyles.. 09/23/2021
Read more
Thu, 23 Sep 2021 00:41:43 +0000
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